Now that the world has successfully completed history’s fastest development of a new vaccine, you might be wondering why we don’t always just make one this fast. If the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are safe and effective and the process to produce them didn’t cut any corners … well, why does it normally take around a decade to do something we just did in less than a year? The answer to that question is inextricably tied up with another question floating around: Once you get the vaccine, can you just go back to your normal life full of hugging people and not wearing a mask? If only we knew...…Now that the world has successfully completed history’s fastest development of a new vaccine, you might be wondering why we don’t always just make one this fast. If the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are safe and effective and the process to produce them didn’t cut any corners … well, why does it normally take around a decade to do something we just did in less than a year? The answer to that question is inextricably tied up with another question floating around: Once you get the vaccine, can you just go back to your normal life full of hugging people and not wearing a mask? If only we knew...WW…

Polls show that Republican voters but aren’t universally opposed to restrictions on firearms. In fact, most Republicans support . Most back “red flag” provisions allowing the police to from people deemed dangerous by a judge. A majority support to purchase a gun.So with Democrats to take action on gun control in the wake of last weekend’s mass shootings in , and — in particular, to pass a bill adopted in February by the Democratic-controlled House that would essentially — will anything happen?It isn’t impossible. President Trump that he would push for “red flag” laws. But Trump has after...…Polls show that Republican voters but aren’t universally opposed to restrictions on firearms. In fact, most Republicans support . Most back “red flag” provisions allowing the police to from people deemed dangerous by a judge. A majority support to purchase a gun.So with Democrats to take action on gun control in the wake of last weekend’s mass shootings in , and — in particular, to pass a bill adopted in February by the Democratic-controlled House that would essentially — will anything happen?It isn’t impossible. President Trump that he would push for “red flag” laws. But Trump has after...WW…

Back in 2017, the Boston Celtics in the NBA draft thanks to a pick swap acquired in the famed Paul Pierce/Kevin Garnett blockbuster trade. University of Washington guard Markelle Fultz was the top available prospect, but Celtics general manager Danny Ainge saw things differently. Rather than standing pat and selecting the player nearly everyone viewed as the best prospect, Ainge traded down and almost immediately declared that he at No. 3 that he would have taken at No. 1.The twists and turns taken by Fultz’s career were hardly foreseeable, but three years in, Ainge is looking pretty...…Back in 2017, the Boston Celtics in the NBA draft thanks to a pick swap acquired in the famed Paul Pierce/Kevin Garnett blockbuster trade. University of Washington guard Markelle Fultz was the top available prospect, but Celtics general manager Danny Ainge saw things differently. Rather than standing pat and selecting the player nearly everyone viewed as the best prospect, Ainge traded down and almost immediately declared that he at No. 3 that he would have taken at No. 1.The twists and turns taken by Fultz’s career were hardly foreseeable, but three years in, Ainge is looking pretty...WW…

By and As of May 28, 2021, we are no longer updating this project with new COVID-19 forecasts.Models predicting the potential spread of the COVID-19 pandemic have become a fixture of American life. Yet each model tells a different story about the loss of life to come, making it hard to know which one is “right.” But COVID-19 models aren’t made to be unquestioned oracles. They’re not trying to tell us one precise future, but rather the range of possibilities given the facts on the ground.One of their more sober tasks is predicting the number of Americans who will die due to COVID-19....…By and As of May 28, 2021, we are no longer updating this project with new COVID-19 forecasts.Models predicting the potential spread of the COVID-19 pandemic have become a fixture of American life. Yet each model tells a different story about the loss of life to come, making it hard to know which one is “right.” But COVID-19 models aren’t made to be unquestioned oracles. They’re not trying to tell us one precise future, but rather the range of possibilities given the facts on the ground.One of their more sober tasks is predicting the number of Americans who will die due to COVID-19....WW…

Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.Filed underYou are now subscribed!Email AddressSign me up…Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.Filed underYou are now subscribed!Email AddressSign me upWW…

Earlier this month, before the Nuggets pulled off , I asked 7-footer Nikola Jokić about the patient, glacially paced style he uses on offense. In a hyper-athletic NBA, in which the speed limit is 70, the Denver star operates at … something much, much less.“I’m patient because I cannot really run fast, and that’s my only option,” .No one will mistake Jokić for Usain Bolt anytime soon, but the reality is that he’s often at his best, and brings opposing defenders to their knees most often, while playing at his slowest.There’s no getting around the simple truth that the Joker is slow, to put it...…Earlier this month, before the Nuggets pulled off , I asked 7-footer Nikola Jokić about the patient, glacially paced style he uses on offense. In a hyper-athletic NBA, in which the speed limit is 70, the Denver star operates at … something much, much less.“I’m patient because I cannot really run fast, and that’s my only option,” .No one will mistake Jokić for Usain Bolt anytime soon, but the reality is that he’s often at his best, and brings opposing defenders to their knees most often, while playing at his slowest.There’s no getting around the simple truth that the Joker is slow, to put it...WW…

Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.Filed underYou are now subscribed!Email AddressSign me up…Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.Filed underYou are now subscribed!Email AddressSign me upWW…

 More: |We start with the return of the NBA, which also means the return of our NBA prediction model, powered by our RAPTOR player ratings. We’ve gotten rid of some things — most notably the more predictive version of RAPTOR, which threw off our playoff predictions last year — and have also changed some things around to account for the ongoing pandemic that the league is going to start (but hopefully not finish) playing in. Four teams — the Los Angeles Lakers, Milwaukee Bucks, Los Angeles Clippers and Boston Celtics — have double-digit odds of taking home the title this year, according...… More: |We start with the return of the NBA, which also means the return of our NBA prediction model, powered by our RAPTOR player ratings. We’ve gotten rid of some things — most notably the more predictive version of RAPTOR, which threw off our playoff predictions last year — and have also changed some things around to account for the ongoing pandemic that the league is going to start (but hopefully not finish) playing in. Four teams — the Los Angeles Lakers, Milwaukee Bucks, Los Angeles Clippers and Boston Celtics — have double-digit odds of taking home the title this year, according...WW…

Welcome to , our weekly polling roundup.Hard as it may be to believe, Election Day is now less than five months away. And at this point, former Vice President Joe Biden has a clear lead over President Trump . But recent state-level surveys over Trump in a number of key swing states. And of course, how Trump and Biden do at the state level matters the most, as that’s how the outcome in the Electoral College will be decided.With that in mind, we thought it would be helpful to update where things stand in state-level polls of the presidential contest, . To do this, we gathered all the state...…Welcome to , our weekly polling roundup.Hard as it may be to believe, Election Day is now less than five months away. And at this point, former Vice President Joe Biden has a clear lead over President Trump . But recent state-level surveys over Trump in a number of key swing states. And of course, how Trump and Biden do at the state level matters the most, as that’s how the outcome in the Electoral College will be decided.With that in mind, we thought it would be helpful to update where things stand in state-level polls of the presidential contest, . To do this, we gathered all the state...WW…

Welcome to , our weekly polling roundup.The death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg opened up on the U.S. Supreme Court, and Republicans are moving quickly to fill the seat. President Trump says he will nominate a replacement for Ginsburg , and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has on the nominee this year. (And it looks as if he might to confirm her.) But polling conducted in the wake of Ginsburg’s death shows that this may be an unpopular decision.We’ve identified 12 polls so far that have asked some version of the question, “Should Ginsburg’s seat be filled this year by Trump, or next...…Welcome to , our weekly polling roundup.The death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg opened up on the U.S. Supreme Court, and Republicans are moving quickly to fill the seat. President Trump says he will nominate a replacement for Ginsburg , and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has on the nominee this year. (And it looks as if he might to confirm her.) But polling conducted in the wake of Ginsburg’s death shows that this may be an unpopular decision.We’ve identified 12 polls so far that have asked some version of the question, “Should Ginsburg’s seat be filled this year by Trump, or next...WW…