Geoffrey Skelley
Geoffrey Skelley
Geoffrey Skelley is an elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight.Source
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Many Democrats Are Sick Of Iowa And New Hampshire Going First, But The Primary Calendar Is Unlikely To Change

Many Democrats Are Sick Of Iowa And New Hampshire Going First, But The Primary Calendar Is Unlikely To Change

Like death and taxes, it’s that Iowa and New Hampshire kick off both the Republican and Democratic presidential primaries. However, the in the 2020 Democratic primary — the Iowa Democratic Party because of technical problems — heightened calls for ending Iowa’s reign in the primary calendar.But in some ways, the push from the start of the primary process has long been picking up steam among Democrats. Iowa and New Hampshire are two very white states — of each state’s population is non-Hispanic white — and in 2020 to influence the nomination race for a party that is . Now-President...

April 8, 2021
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Why Democrats Weren’t Going To Reverse The Result In Iowa

Why Democrats Weren’t Going To Reverse The Result In Iowa

That whoosh you just heard? That was House Democrats breathing a sigh of relief now that Democrat Rita Hart the result in Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District, which she lost to Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks — one of the in .Democrats at the prospect of having to vote on whether to unseat Miller-Meeks, especially considering how loudly they protested former President Trump and Republicans’ attempts to overturn the 2020 election earlier this year. Additionally, there were concerns it would undermine Democrats’ efforts a massive voting rights and election reform bill. That, along with the...

March 31, 2021
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What Americans Think About D.C. Statehood, Anti-Asian Discrimination And LGBTQ Rights

What Americans Think About D.C. Statehood, Anti-Asian Discrimination And LGBTQ Rights

Welcome to , our weekly polling roundup. Once again, we’re switching up the format a little, so please let us know your thoughts on it (or any other form you’d like to see this feature take) by .This week the House of Representatives that would make Washington, D.C., the nation’s 51st state. This has long been a , especially since the heavily Democratic city would likely elect two Democratic senators. has found that at least half of , and that hasn’t really changed much. What is notable, though, is how much question wording can move the numbers — perhaps a sign of how we can expect the two...

March 26, 2021
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What The Virginia Governor’s Race Says About Where The Two Parties Are Headed

What The Virginia Governor’s Race Says About Where The Two Parties Are Headed

Over the past two decades, Virginia from a Republican-leaning state to one that usually votes Democratic statewide. Nevertheless, the GOP hopes to win back Virginia’s governorship this November, and having held full control over the state legislature until the , that’s not an outlandish goal in a state with such a purplish-blue electoral bent.As such, the two parties are currently duking it out over who their nominee should be, with many of the same trends we see nationally playing out at the state level. For Republicans, that means a debate over how best to pick a nominee as the...

March 24, 2021
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9 Of The 10 House Republicans Who Voted For Impeachment Already Have Primary Challengers

9 Of The 10 House Republicans Who Voted For Impeachment Already Have Primary Challengers

“She gave the state of Wyoming .” “He’s .” “We in there.” These are just some of the criticisms that Republicans have lobbed at the 10 House Republicans who former President Donald Trump after his supporters stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6. The criticisms haven’t stopped there, either. Trump told attendees last month to “get rid of them all.” And all but one of these 10 representatives have been publicly rebuked by state or local GOP officials. In total, nine already face a primary challenger in 2022.But is this opposition real or … just noise? After all, we’re still a long way from the...

March 17, 2021
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Why You Should Still Pay Attention To Joe Biden’s Approval Rating

Why You Should Still Pay Attention To Joe Biden’s Approval Rating

When it comes to presidential approval ratings, the days of big swings in opinion and sky-high ratings are gone. Consider that former President Donald Trump’s approval rating mostly hovered between 40 and 45 percent, earning him the distinction of having of any president since World War II. In fact, one way Trump embodied the nickname “Teflon Don” so early was by how little his approval numbers moved in response to the many controversies swirling around him. Former President Barack Obama in his approval numbers.It’s early yet, but President Biden’s initial approval marks aren’t all...

March 15, 2021
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California’s Gavin Newsom Will Likely Face A Recall Election — But He’ll Probably Survive It

California’s Gavin Newsom Will Likely Face A Recall Election — But He’ll Probably Survive It

California Gov. Gavin Newsom has been in office for just two years, but there have already been to force a statewide recall election on whether to remove him from office. That itself is not unusual — California has some of the in the country — but what is unusual is that the sixth attempt (which is currently underway) appears to be .If it makes the ballot, the election would be just the . And two of the previous three governors to face recalls ended up going down in defeat, including , when in the midst of a statewide fiscal crisis of voters opted to recall Democrat Gray Davis and in his...

February 10, 2021
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Why A Biden Blowout Didn’t Happen (And Why A 2024 Blowout Is Unlikely, Too)

Why A Biden Blowout Didn’t Happen (And Why A 2024 Blowout Is Unlikely, Too)

President Biden of unity early in his presidency — a vision that will be hard to achieve. There are multiple factors working against him, including and the increased inability of people from the opposing party . The race between Biden and former President Donald Trump was also just really close, underscoring how divided the country is electorally.In fact, we’re living in the most competitive era of presidential politics in the nation’s history. As the chart below shows, the 2020 election is now the ninth consecutive presidential election in which the national popular vote margin was smaller...

February 2, 2021
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Is The Presidential Honeymoon Over?

Is The Presidential Honeymoon Over?

While that President Biden will offer Americans a “” after four years of now-former President Trump in the White House, it’s difficult to know at this point which aspects of the political landscape may be changed forever. For instance, it’s unclear whether Biden will enjoy a “,” the first few months in office when new presidents typically garner high marks for their job performance.Before Trump, most presidents generally received positive marks in their first six months — and some ratings were downright sterling, as the table below shows.Average over first six months of first...

January 26, 2021
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Few Americans Who Identify As Independent Are Actually Independent. That’s Really Bad For Politics.

Few Americans Who Identify As Independent Are Actually Independent. That’s Really Bad For Politics.

If you’ve ever been in a conversation about politics, you’ve probably heard someone say, “I don’t like either party” or “Politics is just so ugly these days.” That person also may have claimed not to identify as a Democrat or a Republican but as an independent instead.Today, that person is pretty representative of how Americans identify politically. The share of Americans who say they’re independent has climbed considerably, according to . In the late 1980s, roughly one-third of Americans identified as Democratic, Republican or independent. Now, 40 percent or more identify as independent,...

April 15, 2021
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