Name: 9 Of The 10 House Republicans Who Voted For Impeachment Already Have Primary Challengers
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9 Of The 10 House Republicans Who Voted For Impeachment Already Have Primary Challengers

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“She gave the state of Wyoming .” “He’s .” “We in there.”&nbsp;These are just some of the criticisms that Republicans have lobbed at the 10 House Republicans who former President Donald Trump after his supporters stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6. The criticisms haven’t stopped there, either. Trump told attendees last month to “get rid of them all.” And all but one of these 10 representatives have been publicly rebuked by state or local GOP officials. In total, nine already face a primary challenger in 2022.But is this opposition real or … just noise? After all, we’re still a long way from the 2022 primaries, which leaves plenty of time for anger surrounding their votes to impeach Trump to fade.related:Sometimes Senators Just Retire. Don’t Read Too Much Into The Recent GOP Exodus.At first glance, the seriousness of the primary challengers does vary quite a bit, ranging from the very serious — that is, other elected officials, who tend — to political newcomers like a conservative activist best known . Yet, in most cases, these representatives should all have at least some reason to be concerned about winning renomination in 2022 — especially those who hail from more Republican-leaning districts.RepresentativeDistrictFirst electedAdmonished by state/ local GOPPrimary challengerTrump 2020 marginLiz CheneyWY-AL2016✓✓+43.7Tom RiceSC-072012✓✓+18.6Dan NewhouseWA-042014✓✓+18.2Adam KinzingerIL-162010✓✓+16.0Anthony GonzalezOH-162018✓✓+14.3Fred UptonMI-061986✓✓+4.5Jaime Herrera BeutlerWA-032011✓✓+3.7Peter MeijerMI-032020✓✓+3.3John KatkoNY-242014-9.0David Valadao*CA-212012✓✓-10.9The Republican in most danger of losing renomination, South Carolina Rep. Tom Rice, ironically has the among these 10 members, too. But thanks to South Carolina election rules, he faces a tougher road to renomination than the other nine. That’s because he must capture a majority of the votes in a primary or runoff to win — whereas the others only need a plurality. There’s reason to think, too, that Republicans in South Carolina’s 7th Congressional District could be especially receptive to a Trump-motivated primary challenge, as it was Trump’s strongest district in the state’s .In fact, Rice has already been and attracted two challengers, both of whom hold elected office: Horry County school board Chairman and . (Bailey hasn’t officially announced, but he has taken a big first step in forming an exploratory committee.) , too. And if Rice does lose, he wouldn’t be the first Palmetto State House Republican in recent years to lose a primary after running afoul of conservatives: In 2018, Rep. Mark Sanford after , and in 2010, Rep. Bob Inglis in a runoff .After Rice, the next most endangered Republican may be the most well-known name here: Rep. Liz Cheney of Wyoming. As a , Cheney will have a huge campaign war chest to help with her reelection bid, but Republican fury over her vote to impeach Trump runs deep: The , as have in the state, while her colleagues in D.C. even held a .related:Why Republicans Don’t Fear An Electoral Backlash For Opposing Really Popular Parts Of Biden’s AgendaAnger at Cheney could keep burning, too, given her national profile and because Wyoming Republicans, long in state politics, have . For instance, in 2020 an defeated more moderate lawmakers in six state Senate and House districts and mounted major challenges in about a dozen other seats. Those campaigns were largely backed by conservative groups and Republican leaders who wanted to oust “Republicans in name only,” and the same sentiments like state Sen. Anthony Bouchard and state Rep. Chuck Gray, a pair of right-wing state legislators who have already said they’ll take on Cheney.Next up are Midwestern Reps. Anthony Gonzalez of Ohio and Adam Kinzinger of Illinois, who each have a noteworthy challenger with Trump ties: former Trump aide Max Miller Gonzalez, while former Trump Commerce Department adviser Catalina Lauf Kinzinger. It’s not just their votes on impeachment that make Gonzalez and Kinzinger vulnerable. According to Voteview.com, their are among the least conservative of all House Republicans despite representing seats . Kinzinger in particular and was to recently for gun sales.The six remaining Republicans aren’t as vulnerable, but at least a couple of them could still run into primary danger.related:Confidence Interval: Republicans Will Win Back Congress In 2022For instance, for the three members from California and Washington, the should help them weather their primary challenges, as no House incumbent has failed to advance to the general election in those states under this system. But the Washington pair — Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler and Rep. Dan Newhouse — have more to worry about, having , and . Herrera Beutler might benefit from a crowded primary field, though. Three have already said they’ll run against her, but they’re all relatively unknown and could split up the anti-incumbent GOP vote. Newhouse, meanwhile, GOP state Rep. Brad Klippert, and are , too. Still, Newhouse’s district is Republican enough that it sometimes , and in that case, Newhouse might win over some Democratic voters because of his impeachment vote. As for the other representative facing a top-two primary, Rep. David Valadao of California ; he’s only and a who last ran for Congress in New Mexico, finishing third in a .Likewise, western Michigan Reps. Pete Meijer and Fred Upton also have fewer primary concerns. Some have censured Meijer, but his district committee and GOP officials from the largest county in the district either. His primary opponents also aren’t all that serious (yet), as and the other is that activist I mentioned earlier who is most famous for her . Meanwhile, Upton has been but so far he has attracted only one primary opponent, who (0.15 percent) as a write-in candidate in the 2020 general election.Lastly, New York Rep. John Katko might not have that much to worry about in the primary, but that doesn’t mean it’ll be smooth sailing in the general election. Katko is the one member without a primary challenger so far and he’s also from state and , but that doesn’t mean he hasn’t angered some of his base. Katko won just over 21,000 votes from Conservative Party voters in 2020 — about two-thirds of his 35,000-vote margin of victory — but his impeachment vote has already by one Conservative Party county committee in the district and , which could hurt Katko’s reelection chances, especially if he faces a strong Democratic challenger.It’s early yet, so it’s possible these 10 Republicans curry favor with the party faithful in the coming months, but no matter what they do, their House impeachment vote could still cut their political careers short in the 2022 GOP primaries.Geoffrey Skelley is a senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight.Filed underYou are now subscribed!Email AddressSign me up

“She gave the state of Wyoming .” “He’s .” “We in there.”&nbsp;These are just some of the criticisms that Republicans have lobbed at the 10 House Republicans who former President Donald Trump after his supporters stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6. The criticisms haven’t stopped there, either. Trump told attendees last month to “get rid of them all.” And all but one of these 10 representatives have been publicly rebuked by state or local GOP officials. In total, nine already face a primary challenger in 2022.But is this opposition real or … just noise? After all, we’re still a long way from the...

9 Of The 10 House Republicans Who Voted For Impeachment Already Have Primary Challengers

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