Preelection polls suggest Biden could lose support among young people, one of Democrats' key voting blocs, due to concerns about alleged policy inaction on climate change, student debt, the economy and war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. These voters have three options: stay home, vote for Trump or vote for a third party. This scenario explores how the election could go if young voters decide not to show up this year and those who do vote at a higher rate for third-party candidates. In 2020, 61 percent of voters between the ages of 18 and 29 voted for Biden, according to our analysis of...…Preelection polls suggest Biden could lose support among young people, one of Democrats' key voting blocs, due to concerns about alleged policy inaction on climate change, student debt, the economy and war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. These voters have three options: stay home, vote for Trump or vote for a third party. This scenario explores how the election could go if young voters decide not to show up this year and those who do vote at a higher rate for third-party candidates. In 2020, 61 percent of voters between the ages of 18 and 29 voted for Biden, according to our analysis of...WW…

By , ,  and There’s a lot of complaining about gerrymandering, but what should districts look like? We went back to the drawing board and drew a set of alternative congressional maps for the entire country. Each map has a different goal: One is designed to encourage competitive elections, for example, and another to maximize the number of majority-minority districts. See how changes to district boundaries could radically alter the partisan and racial makeup of the U.S. House — without a single voter moving or switching parties.Partisan goalsOther goals Show current district...…By , ,  and There’s a lot of complaining about gerrymandering, but what should districts look like? We went back to the drawing board and drew a set of alternative congressional maps for the entire country. Each map has a different goal: One is designed to encourage competitive elections, for example, and another to maximize the number of majority-minority districts. See how changes to district boundaries could radically alter the partisan and racial makeup of the U.S. House — without a single voter moving or switching parties.Partisan goalsOther goals Show current district...WW…

Our polling averages on support for and opposition to removing Trump from office are no longer updating.By , and Latest newsWednesday evening, the House passed its aimed at removing President Trump from office. But as FiveThirtyEight's Perry Bacon Jr. wrote, it was still , with only 10 Republicans joining the latest rebuke of the president. What happens next is, in many ways, anyone’s guess, but it doesn’t seem as if we’ll have an answer before Joe Biden’s inauguration next week. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is reported to , but McConnell has indicated that he thinks until after...…Our polling averages on support for and opposition to removing Trump from office are no longer updating.By , and Latest newsWednesday evening, the House passed its aimed at removing President Trump from office. But as FiveThirtyEight's Perry Bacon Jr. wrote, it was still , with only 10 Republicans joining the latest rebuke of the president. What happens next is, in many ways, anyone’s guess, but it doesn’t seem as if we’ll have an answer before Joe Biden’s inauguration next week. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is reported to , but McConnell has indicated that he thinks until after...WW…

Recent polling average updatesSenateHouseGovernorsFilter by poll type or statePolling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to this page. .SampleSAMPLE TYPESA ADULTSV VOTERSLV LIKELY VOTERSRV REGISTERED VOTERSPollsterSponsorResultNet resultPollsterResult688LV Biden67% Biden67% Biden67% Trump31%31%Trump  Biden+36688RV Biden65% Biden65% Biden65% Trump31%31%Trump  Biden+341,013LV Biden66% Biden66% Biden66% Trump32%32%Trump  Biden+341,013RV Biden65% Biden65% Biden65%...…Recent polling average updatesSenateHouseGovernorsFilter by poll type or statePolling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to this page. .SampleSAMPLE TYPESA ADULTSV VOTERSLV LIKELY VOTERSRV REGISTERED VOTERSPollsterSponsorResultNet resultPollsterResult688LV Biden67% Biden67% Biden67% Trump31%31%Trump  Biden+36688RV Biden65% Biden65% Biden65% Trump31%31%Trump  Biden+341,013LV Biden66% Biden66% Biden66% Trump32%32%Trump  Biden+341,013RV Biden65% Biden65% Biden65%...WW…

By and Illustrations by , Candidate Portraits by On Tuesday, President Trump and Joe Biden faced off for the first time, . We once again partnered with to track how the debate affected Americans’ views of the election, using Ipsos’s KnowledgePanel to interview the same group of people both before and after the debate. The topline is clear: Americans were not impressed with the president’s performance. Whether that will actually lead people to change their votes remains to be seen, though it seems unlikely.Respondents were also given the option of third-party candidates or ‘someone else.’...…By and Illustrations by , Candidate Portraits by On Tuesday, President Trump and Joe Biden faced off for the first time, . We once again partnered with to track how the debate affected Americans’ views of the election, using Ipsos’s KnowledgePanel to interview the same group of people both before and after the debate. The topline is clear: Americans were not impressed with the president’s performance. Whether that will actually lead people to change their votes remains to be seen, though it seems unlikely.Respondents were also given the option of third-party candidates or ‘someone else.’...WW…

Recent polling average updatesSenateHouseGovernorsFilter by poll type or stateOur average includes all candidates that Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. .SampleSAMPLE TYPESA ADULTSV VOTERSLV LIKELY VOTERSRV REGISTERED VOTERSPollsterSponsorResultNet resultPollsterResult500RVCarolina Partnership for Reform is a partisan sponsor for the Republican Party. Stein42% Stein42% Stein42% Robinson48%48%Robinson...…Recent polling average updatesSenateHouseGovernorsFilter by poll type or stateOur average includes all candidates that Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. .SampleSAMPLE TYPESA ADULTSV VOTERSLV LIKELY VOTERSRV REGISTERED VOTERSPollsterSponsorResultNet resultPollsterResult500RVCarolina Partnership for Reform is a partisan sponsor for the Republican Party. Stein42% Stein42% Stein42% Robinson48%48%Robinson...WW…

Recent polling average updatesSenateHouseGovernorsFilter by poll type or stateOur average includes all candidates that Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. .SampleSAMPLE TYPESA ADULTSV VOTERSLV LIKELY VOTERSRV REGISTERED VOTERSPollsterSponsorResultNet resultPollsterResult2,111LVThomas McDermottThomas McDermott is a Democratic Party candidate for office. McDermott42% McDermott42% McDermott42%...…Recent polling average updatesSenateHouseGovernorsFilter by poll type or stateOur average includes all candidates that Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. .SampleSAMPLE TYPESA ADULTSV VOTERSLV LIKELY VOTERSRV REGISTERED VOTERSPollsterSponsorResultNet resultPollsterResult2,111LVThomas McDermottThomas McDermott is a Democratic Party candidate for office. McDermott42% McDermott42% McDermott42%...WW…

Recent polling average updatesSenateHouseGovernorsFilter by poll type or stateOur average includes all candidates that Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. .SampleSAMPLE TYPESA ADULTSV VOTERSLV LIKELY VOTERSRV REGISTERED VOTERSPollsterSponsorResultNet resultPollsterResult550LV Warnock44% Warnock44% Warnock44% Walker47% Oliver4%47% WalkerMoreWalker+344%47%4%550LV Abrams42% Abrams42% Abrams42% Kemp50%...…Recent polling average updatesSenateHouseGovernorsFilter by poll type or stateOur average includes all candidates that Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. .SampleSAMPLE TYPESA ADULTSV VOTERSLV LIKELY VOTERSRV REGISTERED VOTERSPollsterSponsorResultNet resultPollsterResult550LV Warnock44% Warnock44% Warnock44% Walker47% Oliver4%47% WalkerMoreWalker+344%47%4%550LV Abrams42% Abrams42% Abrams42% Kemp50%...WW…

Recent polling average updatesSenateHouseGovernorsFilter by poll type or statePolling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to this page. .SampleSAMPLE TYPESA ADULTSV VOTERSLV LIKELY VOTERSRV REGISTERED VOTERSPollsterSponsorResultNet resultPollsterResult1,854RV Harris41% Harris41% Harris41% DeSantis38%38%DeSantis  Harris+31,854RV Harris40% Harris40% Harris40% Trump Sr.47%47%Trump Sr.  Trump Sr.+71,854RV Biden42% Biden42% Biden42% Trump Sr.45%45%Trump Sr.  Trump Sr.+3708LV...…Recent polling average updatesSenateHouseGovernorsFilter by poll type or statePolling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to this page. .SampleSAMPLE TYPESA ADULTSV VOTERSLV LIKELY VOTERSRV REGISTERED VOTERSPollsterSponsorResultNet resultPollsterResult1,854RV Harris41% Harris41% Harris41% DeSantis38%38%DeSantis  Harris+31,854RV Harris40% Harris40% Harris40% Trump Sr.47%47%Trump Sr.  Trump Sr.+71,854RV Biden42% Biden42% Biden42% Trump Sr.45%45%Trump Sr.  Trump Sr.+3708LV...WW…

Recent polling average updatesSenateHouseGovernorsFilter by poll type or stateOur average includes all candidates that Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. .SampleSAMPLE TYPESA ADULTSV VOTERSLV LIKELY VOTERSRV REGISTERED VOTERSPollsterSponsorResultNet resultPollsterResult1,500LV Approve45% Approve45% Approve45% Disapprove53%53%Disapprove  Disapprove+88,384LV Approve46% Approve46% Approve46%...…Recent polling average updatesSenateHouseGovernorsFilter by poll type or stateOur average includes all candidates that Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. .SampleSAMPLE TYPESA ADULTSV VOTERSLV LIKELY VOTERSRV REGISTERED VOTERSPollsterSponsorResultNet resultPollsterResult1,500LV Approve45% Approve45% Approve45% Disapprove53%53%Disapprove  Disapprove+88,384LV Approve46% Approve46% Approve46%...WW…