Jay Boice
Jay Boice
Jay Boice is a computational journalist for FiveThirtyEight. He was previously deputy data editor at The Huffington Post.Source
Amherst, MA
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Where The Latest COVID-19 Models Think We're Headed — And Why They Disagree

Where The Latest COVID-19 Models Think We're Headed — And Why They Disagree

By and As of May 28, 2021, we are no longer updating this project with new COVID-19 forecasts.Models predicting the potential spread of the COVID-19 pandemic have become a fixture of American life. Yet each model tells a different story about the loss of life to come, making it hard to know which one is “right.” But COVID-19 models aren’t made to be unquestioned oracles. They’re not trying to tell us one precise future, but rather the range of possibilities given the facts on the ground.One of their more sober tasks is predicting the number of Americans who will die due to COVID-19....

May 1, 2020
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2020-21 NBA Predictions

2020-21 NBA Predictions

More NBA:A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATINGPlayerPGSGSFPFCTOTALvs. full strengthvs. full strengthOff. +/-Def. +/-122300035SAME+5.5-1.700003636SAME+0.1+5.534000034SAME+3.2+0.900035035SAME+1.2-1.707270034SAME+0.2+1.100216027SAME+0.6+0.321800020SAME+1.7-1.600001212SAME-0.1+2.0000707SAME0.0-0.5000000SAME-0.9+0.9000000SAME-1.7-0.9000000SAME-0.8-0.2000000SAME-0.2-1.9000000SAME-2.0-0.8000000SAME-2.3+0.1000000SAME-1.7-0.5000000SAME-2.4-0.8Rotation...

December 17, 2020
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The Best NBA Players, According To RAPTOR

The Best NBA Players, According To RAPTOR

More NBA:RAPTOR WARTotal RAPTOROffensive RAPTORDefensive RAPTOROffensive and defensive ratings for NBA players. Filter or search to find players.Choose season(s)Season(s)'13-'14'14-'15'15-'16'16-'17'17-'18'18-'19'19-'20'20-'21'21-'22Choose a season typeChoose season typeChoose a teamChoose a positionYears of experienceSearch for a playerSearchBox Score RAPTOROn/Off RAPTOROverall RAPTORPlayerTeamPosition(s)MinutesOff.Def.Tot.Off.Def.Tot.Off.Def.Tot.WARNo matching players were foundPlayer link copied to clipboard!Design and development by , and . Statistical model by . Additional...

January 12, 2021
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Build An NBA Contender With Our Roster-Shuffling Machine

Build An NBA Contender With Our Roster-Shuffling Machine

More NBA:By and How would adding a superstar change your favorite team’s title chances? Could a specific role player be the missing piece for a certain squad? Use this team-building tool to tinker with a roster by “trading” and dropping players — with as many teams as you want, free of salary cap constraints — and watch teams move around in our RAPTOR-based playoff predictions.How would adding a superstar change your favorite team’s chances of winning it all? Could a specific role player be the missing piece for a certain squad? Use this team-building tool to tinker with a roster by adding...

March 4, 2021
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2020 NFL Predictions

2020 NFL Predictions

More NFL:playoff chancesplayoff chancesplayoff chanceselo with top qbelo rating1-week changecurrent qb adj.teamdivisionmake div. roundmake conf. champmake super bowlwin super bowl1734+34NFC South✓✓✓✓1708AFC West✓✓✓1714AFC East✓✓1692NFC North✓✓1688NFC South✓1648AFC North✓1621NFC West✓1579AFC North✓1566NFC West1596AFC South1563AFC South1562AFC North1510NFC North1463NFC East1530AFC East1497AFC East1494AFC West1502NFC North1492NFC West1461NFC West1448NFC South1464AFC West1428NFC East1445AFC West1424NFC South1391AFC South1384NFC East1402NFC East1322AFC North1338NFC North1319AFC East1244AFC...

September 9, 2020
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2020 NFL Predictions

2020 NFL Predictions

More NFL:playoff chancesplayoff chancesplayoff chanceselo with top qbelo rating1-week changecurrent qb adj.teamdivisionmake div. roundmake conf. champmake super bowlwin super bowl1734+34NFC South✓✓✓✓1708AFC West✓✓✓1714AFC East✓✓1692NFC North✓✓1688NFC South✓1648AFC North✓1621NFC West✓1579AFC North✓1566NFC West1596AFC South1563AFC South1562AFC North1510NFC North1463NFC East1530AFC East1497AFC East1494AFC West1502NFC North1492NFC West1461NFC West1448NFC South1464AFC West1428NFC East1445AFC West1424NFC South1391AFC South1384NFC East1402NFC East1322AFC North1338NFC North1319AFC East1244AFC...

September 9, 2020
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2020-21 NBA Predictions

2020-21 NBA Predictions

More NBA:Chance of making ...Current ratingFull-strength ratingTeamConference17521770East✓✓✓✓✓17341733West✓✓✓✓—17361749West✓✓✓——16061620East✓✓✓——17171746East✓✓———17151715West✓✓———17141714East✓✓———16101684West✓✓———17091709West✓————16531653West✓————16361636West✓————15771619East✓————15211521West✓————15161595East✓————15121512East✓————14981479East✓————16281628East—————15771496West—————15761576West—————15201535East—————14721472East—————14661483West—————14661512West—————14491451West—————14471447East—————13661378West—————13491432West—————13451345East—————13331354East—————13041343East—————Forecast...

December 17, 2020
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