Nathaniel Rakich
Nathaniel Rakich
Nathaniel Rakich is FiveThirtyEight’s elections analyst.Source
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It’s Not Just Georgia: More Than A Dozen Other States Are Trying To Take Power Away From Local Election Officials

It’s Not Just Georgia: More Than A Dozen Other States Are Trying To Take Power Away From Local Election Officials

Georgia’s new election restrictions have garnered no shortage of criticism thanks to that directly impose additional burdens on voters, such as an ID requirement for absentee voting or a ban on distributing food or water to people waiting in line to vote. But equally importantly, the law opens up the possibility for elections to become more nakedly partisan.In essence, the law provides a mechanism to transfer power currently vested in to the majority-Republican State Election Board by giving the board the authority to suspend local election officials in up to four counties at a time and...

April 13, 2021
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Americans Oppose Many Voting Restrictions — But Not Voter ID Laws

Americans Oppose Many Voting Restrictions — But Not Voter ID Laws

Welcome to , our weekly polling roundup.Last week, Gov. Brian Kemp signed a into law in Georgia. The — including a ban on giving food and water to voters in line and an ID requirement for absentee voting — from Democrats, voting-rights advocates and corporations for making voting more arduous, particularly for Black voters who will be . And alarmingly, the laws appear to be inspired by a baseless belief in rampant voter fraud in the 2020 election and designed to make it easier for Republicans to win elections in the future.But how many Americans buy into the Republican argument that more...

April 2, 2021
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What Americans Think About The Minimum Wage And Their Governors

What Americans Think About The Minimum Wage And Their Governors

Welcome to , our weekly polling roundup. And this week, we’re switching up the format a little; let us know your thoughts on it (or any other form you’d like to see Pollapalooza take) by .Democrats got some bad news last week when the Senate parliamentarian ruled that the Senate as part of its COVID-19 relief bill. The party’s goal of raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour now faces a more difficult path to passage (had the Senate parliamentarian said it was fine to include, a simple majority in the Senate could have passed it). Now, if the Senate takes it up, it will be as a separate bill...

March 5, 2021
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All The Ways Georgia Could Make It Harder To Vote

All The Ways Georgia Could Make It Harder To Vote

We spent the summer and fall of 2020 due to the pandemic, when almost every state relaxed its laws to make it easier to vote. That’s not the case here in 2021, though, as many Republican state legislators spend the early days of this year’s legislative session proposing laws that would make it harder to vote — especially in ways disproportionately used by Democrats and voters of color — under the pretense of preventing large-scale voter fraud (which doesn’t exist).According to the , a pro-voting-rights advocacy group, more than 165 bills restricting voting access have been proposed in 33...

February 25, 2021
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Confidence Interval: Republicans Will Win Back Congress In 2022

Confidence Interval: Republicans Will Win Back Congress In 2022

It’s another episode of , where we make a persuasive case for a hot take we’ve been hearing … and then reveal how confident we really feel about the idea. This time, elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich argues that Democrats will lose their majorities in the House and Senate in the 2022 midterm elections.Nathaniel Rakich is a senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight.Michael Tabb is a video and motion graphics producer at FiveThirtyEight.Filed underYou are now subscribed!Email AddressSign me up

February 19, 2021
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What Absentee Voting Looked Like In All 50 States

What Absentee Voting Looked Like In All 50 States

We may have , but now we know for sure: The coronavirus pandemic made the 2020 election look different from any other election in recent memory. Due to the massive , a staggering number of Americans . And due to then-President Donald Trump’s that mail voting would lead to election fraud, a emerged between ballots cast by mail and ballots cast on Election Day.First, the share of voters casting mail ballots far exceeded that of any other recent national election, and the share of voters who reported going to a polling place on Election Day dropped to its lowest point in at least 30 years....

February 9, 2021
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Trump Was Never Very Popular, But How Will Americans View Him (And Biden) Now?

Trump Was Never Very Popular, But How Will Americans View Him (And Biden) Now?

Welcome to , our (mostly) weekly polling roundup.On a very basic level, one big reason why President Trump lost reelection is that he . As of Nov. 3, his job approval rating was just 44.6 percent, and his disapproval rating was 52.6 percent, according to . That -8.1-point net approval rating was the third-lowest of any recent president on the day they stood for election to a second term. (Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush were the only two other presidents to go into Election Day with a lower net approval rating, or higher disapproval rating, than Trump’s.) Notably, all three...

December 4, 2020
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Congressional Republicans Left Office In Droves Under Trump. Just How Conservative Are Their Replacements?

Congressional Republicans Left Office In Droves Under Trump. Just How Conservative Are Their Replacements?

The current 117th Congress is only four months old, but already and have announced they will not stay in their current jobs. Add in a slew of Republican retirements in the and election cycles, and a that longtime GOP stalwarts are heading to the exits because they are unhappy with the the party took under former President Donald Trump. “We live in an increasingly polarized country where members of both parties are being pushed further to the right and further to the left, and that means too few people who are actively looking to find common ground,” Sen. Rob Portman when announcing his...

April 27, 2021
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