Name: Trump Was Never Very Popular, But How Will Americans View Him (And Biden) Now?
Brand: fivethirtyeight.com
SKU: fivethirtyeight-com-92
Availability: OnlineOnly

critic

Trump Was Never Very Popular, But How Will Americans View Him (And Biden) Now?

preview

Welcome to , our (mostly) weekly polling roundup.On a very basic level, one big reason why President Trump lost reelection is that he . As of Nov. 3, his job approval rating was just 44.6 percent, and his disapproval rating was 52.6 percent, according to . That -8.1-point net approval rating was the third-lowest of any recent president on the day they stood for election to a second term. (Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush were the only two other presidents to go into Election Day with a lower net approval rating, or higher disapproval rating, than Trump’s.) Notably, all three lost.PresidentYearWon Election?ApprovalDisapprovalNetLyndon B. Johnson*1964✓74.0%15.0%+59.0Dwight D. Eisenhower1956✓67.919.1+48.8Richard Nixon1972✓61.328.6+32.7Ronald Reagan1984✓57.933.0+24.9Bill Clinton1996✓54.638.6+16.0Barack Obama2012✓49.547.1+2.4Gerald Ford*197643.641.3+2.3George W. Bush2004✓48.447.5+0.9Harry S. Truman*1948✓39.645.5-5.9Donald Trump202044.652.6-8.1Jimmy Carter198037.954.8-16.9George H.W. Bush199232.655.5-22.9Part of this boils down to the between a president’s approval rating and his ability to win another election. Hugely popular presidents like Lyndon B. Johnson, Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan cruised to a second term, while divisive but still net-popular ones like George W. Bush and Barack Obama won in squeakers. In fact, the only recent president to lose his bid for a second term with a positive net approval rating was Gerald Ford in 1976. (That said, he had a fairly weak approval rating — just 43.6 percent, lower than Trump’s on Election Day in 2020. A relatively high share of Americans had no opinion of him, which may have made it easier for his opponent, Carter, to win them over.) That means the only president with a negative net approval rating to win a second term was Harry S. Truman in 1948 — an election still upheld as one of the .That said, a president’s approval rating is hardly the last word. Elections, after all, are a choice between (at least) two candidates. But in the case of 2020, it looks like President-elect Biden was indeed more popular than Trump, at least according to Biden’s favorability ratings. (Favorability ratings and approval ratings aren’t quite the same thing, but they are pretty close.) And according to an average of favorability polls conducted during the week before Election Day, Biden had a 51.0 percent favorability rating and a 43.9 percent unfavorability rating, for a net favorability rating of +7.0 points. Meanwhile, Trump’s average net favorability rating in those same polls (-10.8 points, or 43.1 percent favorable vs. 53.9 percent unfavorable) was slightly worse than his net approval rating.DatesPollsterFav.Unfav.NetNov. 2-3McLaughlin &amp; Associates52%45%+7Oct. 31-Nov. 2YouGov/The Economist5148+3Oct. 29-Nov. 1Léger4745+2Oct. 29-Nov. 1Change Research/CNBC5044+5Oct. 28-Nov. 1Quinnipiac University4942+7Oct. 29-31Morning Consult5246+6Oct. 29-31NBC News/The Wall Street Journal4542+3Oct. 27-29Fox News5544+11Oct. 27-29Gravis Marketing5938+21Oct. 27-28Harris/Harvard5045+5Average51.043.9+7.0Since elections essentially boil down to a popularity contest, the fact that Biden was better-liked than Trump on Election Day probably helped him win where Hillary Clinton (who was in 2016) lost. Biden may have had an easier time winning over voters with a low opinion of Trump simply because fewer of them had a low opinion of him — a problem that .What might happen to Trump’s and Biden’s popularity from here? Historically, new presidents have enjoyed a honeymoon phase where they become better-liked shortly after winning the election and taking office. And according to a couple new polls, Biden’s may already have begun. According to a of American adults out this week, Biden’s favorable rating is now 55 percent — 6 points higher than it was in late October and the highest it has been in that survey since before he he was running for president. And last week’s gave Biden a 57 percent favorable rating and a 41 percent unfavorable rating among registered voters — a vast improvement over his +6-point net favorability in their last pre-election survey together, in .That said, not all pollsters are picking up on this. Biden’s net favorability rating is just +2 points among registered voters in , barely changed from their . And put his net favorability rating among registered voters at +6 points the week before Thanksgiving, basically the same as they found . So we need more data before we can safely proclaim that Biden’s honeymoon is underway — especially since in this era of high partisanship.As for Trump, presidents often once they leave office and people start viewing their tenures through rose-colored glasses. It’s too soon to say whether that’s going to happen with Trump; his approval rating has hovered steadily in the 44-45 percent range since Nov. 3. That said, 44-45 percent is among the highest approval rating he has achieved over the last four years — so a handful of people who didn’t approve of his job performance for most of his presidency do approve of it now. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues, especially if he in 2024.According to FiveThirtyEight’s , 43.6 percent of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 52.8 percent disapprove (a net approval rating of -9.2 points). At this time last week, 44.1 percent approved and 52.6 percent disapproved (a net approval rating of -8.5 points). One month ago, Trump had an approval rating of 44.6 percent and a disapproval rating of 52.6 percent, for a net approval rating of -8.1 points.Nathaniel Rakich is a senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight.Filed underYou are now subscribed!Email AddressSign me up

Welcome to , our (mostly) weekly polling roundup.On a very basic level, one big reason why President Trump lost reelection is that he . As of Nov. 3, his job approval rating was just 44.6 percent, and his disapproval rating was 52.6 percent, according to . That -8.1-point net approval rating was the third-lowest of any recent president on the day they stood for election to a second term. (Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush were the only two other presidents to go into Election Day with a lower net approval rating, or higher disapproval rating, than Trump’s.) Notably, all three...

Trump Was Never Very Popular, But How Will Americans View Him (And Biden) Now?

No article scores yet.

CRITIC REVIEWS

PUBLIC REVIEWS