Name: Will 2020 Be Another Blue Wave Election Year?
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Will 2020 Be Another Blue Wave Election Year?

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Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly . The transcript below has been lightly edited.sarah (, politics editor): The 2018 midterm elections were what we called Democrats in the House, making it the third-largest gain by any party in . However, as we cautioned then, this did not mean anything for what the electoral environment might look like in 2020. Two years is a lifetime in politics.But now we’re roughly six months away from Election Day, and it looks as if the electoral environment might once again favor Democrats. Take the Democrats’ lead over Republicans in our . It’s about 8 percentage points, which is just 1 point less than their lead on Election Day 2018. It’s not just the race for Congress either. Former Vice President Joe Biden also has about a nationally, and that lead is even .However, the national environment can change — and probably will. We found, for instance, in the last six months of an election cycle, , on average, between the largest and smallest generic ballot margins. That might not sound like a lot, but in our era of ultra-competitive elections, things are often decided at the margins.So today, let’s talk about the case for — and the case against — a blue wave in 2020.First, big picture: What evidence do we have that the overall environment is good for Democrats? Evidence that it’s good for Republicans?nrakich (, elections analyst): Yeah, I’m really torn on this. The evidence in favor of a blue wave starts with the polls, IMO.First, as you mentioned, Democrats have a solid — almost 2018-level! — lead in our generic congressional ballot tracker.I know Geoffrey has found that that’s over the course of the cycle, but it has been really steady.Plus the Biden polls you mentioned.Plus some !There is certainly time for things to change, but I think you can’t be feeling good about these numbers if you’re a Republican.geoffrey.skelley (, elections analyst): Right, while the generic ballot does handily favor Democrats now, it could change. (Historically, the margin has narrowed, and as we’ve said, I found that it moved 4 points, on average, between six months out and Election Day.)Of course, there’s no guarantee it’ll move as much this time, but as I noted , there are a bunch of seats Democrats are defending that Trump carried in 2016, so even a 1- to 2-point move in the generic ballot might make it tougher for Democrats to hold on to some of these more competitive seats they won in 2018.DistrictInc. partyIncumbent seeking reelection2016 pres. marginRace RatingNJ-11DMikie SherrillR+0.9Safe DNJ-05DJosh GottheimerR+1.1Safe DWI-03DRon KindR+4.5Safe DIL-17DCheri BustosR+0.7Likely DAZ-01DTom O’HalleranR+1.1Likely DMN-02DAngie CraigR+1.2Likely DNY-18DSean Patrick MaloneyR+1.9Likely DPA-17DConor LambR+2.6Likely DMI-11DHaley StevensR+4.4Likely DNV-03DSusie LeeR+1Lean DNH-01DChris PappasR+1.6Lean DVA-02DElaine LuriaR+3.4Lean DIL-14DLauren UnderwoodR+3.9Lean DMI-08DElissa SlotkinR+6.7Lean DUT-04DBen McAdamsR+6.7Lean DNY-19DAntonio DelgadoR+6.8Lean DPA-08DMatt CartwrightR+9.6Lean DGA-06DLucy McBathR+1.5Toss-upIA-01DAbby FinkenauerR+3.5Toss-upIA-03DCindy AxneR+3.5Toss-upNJ-03DAndy KimR+6.2Toss-upVA-07DAbigail SpanbergerR+6.5Toss-upNY-11DMax RoseR+9.8Toss-upNM-02DXochitl Torres SmallR+10.2Toss-upME-02DJared GoldenR+10.3Toss-upSC-01DJoe CunninghamR+13.1Toss-upOK-05DKendra HornR+13.4Toss-upNY-22DAnthony BrindisiR+15.5Toss-upMN-07DCollin PetersonR+30.8Toss-upCA-25RMike GarciaD+6.7Toss-upNY-24RJohn KatkoD+3.6Lean RPA-01RBrian FitzpatrickD+2Lean Rnrakich: But even if the environment changes, I’m not sure it will be in Republicans’ favor. In addition to the polling evidence, there’s a good theoretical argument for a blue wave, which is that we’ve entered an economic crisis and the incumbent president (and his party) .The unemployment rate is , and I think most experts expect it to get .geoffrey.skelley: And the president’s approval rating for is now about the same as his (43.5 percent approve of his coronavirus response, and 43.7 percent approve of his overall job performance). The fact that these figures now align arguably isn’t great for him or Republicans.sarah: That’s a good point, but I also don’t know how big a deal that is considering just how stable has been. Will his handling of the coronavirus really cause supporters to abandon him when so many other things haven’t? I don’t know. 🤷‍♀️One other thing I’m not entirely sure how to reconcile is Democrats’ performance in special elections. You’ve found, Nathaniel, that if one party is performing consistently better than expected, that can foreshadow for that party.Yet Democrats haven’t done that well in 2019-2020 special elections, right?In particular, I’m thinking of their two most recent losses — the California 25th and the Wisconsin 7th — but also ones that predate haven’t boded all that well for Democrats. Is this a possible silver lining for Republicans when it comes to the national environment?nrakich: Right — to me, this is the big argument against a blue wave. Remember how Democrats overperformed their partisan baseline so consistently in ? Well, I’m working on updating that analysis for 2019-20, and I’ll give you a sneak peek: On average so far this cycle, there has been no overperformance for either party.That tells me that, while the national mood does seem very pro-Democratic, when it comes to turning out to vote, voters of both parties are equally motivated.sarah: What does that mean if neither party has an advantage?nrakich: It would point to a neutral political environment.geoffrey.skelley: And if the electoral environment is more neutral, that might point to a close presidential race that could go either way. You’d probably still be looking at a Democratic hold in the House — but with some GOP gains — and a likely GOP hold in the Senate as well.nrakich: Right, and I think that’s the prior we went into the election cycle with, considering we are in a historic era of polarization and .Still probably not a bad assumption.sarah: And I guess one unknown that is hard to quantify is how the coronavirus pandemic — especially if there is a resurgence in the fall — could upend the election. Not many states have moved to prepare for an all-mail election, so the repercussions could be wide-ranging, in addition to being unpredictable.nrakich: Yeah, exactly. The coronavirus is a known unknown in more ways than one.We’re of the position that vote-by-mail . But what if different states, or different parts of swing states, are affected differently?geoffrey.skelley: Luckily, most of the key battleground states do offer some , but obviously access and ease vary from state to state, and no matter what, states will need to be ready for a surge in mail balloting.sarah: Exactly. And FiveThirtyEight contributor Lee Drutman cautioned in that piece Nathaniel linked to that we should be careful not to apply too much of how voting by mail has worked previously to 2020, as the states that moved to universal voting did so gradually, over several election cycles. In other words, there’s no precedent for what we might see in 2020, and as Lee wrote, “The obvious implication is that efforts to expand absentee voting in a pandemic might work differently. And maybe there will be partisan differences in who chooses to vote by mail, as we saw .”nrakich: Switching gears a bit, I’m curious what you guys made of ?To sum it up, it found that Trump supporters were more enthusiastic to vote in November than Biden supporters. That’s significant because the party with the enthusiasm advantage has won every presidential election since 1988.geoffrey.skelley: Enthusiasm certainly matters to some extent. But if one side has a pretty appreciable lead, I’m not sure it matters that much at the end of the day.nrakich: Yeah, on the other hand, I do wonder about a scenario where the coronavirus is still a factor in November, states haven’t moved to vote by mail and Democrats are more scared to go to polling places than Republicans are.sarah: Ah, about that for Biden…People were skeptical in April when we chatted about an that found lukewarm enthusiasm for Biden and solid numbers for Trump, but I still think this idea that voters aren’t that excited about Biden has the power to shape the narrative in more ways than we give it credit for. It’s hard, for instance, for me to see Biden driving record-level turnout like Democrats saw in 2008.That said, we shouldn’t underestimate the power of negative partisanship, or voting for a candidate because you dislike the other party so much. That and could again in 2020.nrakich: Yes, that’s a good point, Sarah.Democrats don’t have to be enthusiastic about Biden if they’re enthusiastic about beating Trump.sarah: Exactly.geoffrey.skelley: Yeah, negative partisanship has probably never been higher than today, so it’s a factor in our elections now more than ever. Though a piece from Matt Grossman for FiveThirtyEight points out that anger at Trump — which connects to negative partisanship — in November, because while it may mobilize white voters, it doesn’t motivate nonwhite voters as much. And Democrats will need solid turnout among African Americans and probably Latinos, too — think Arizona — if they are to win the presidency.sarah: Turnout, particularly with all the unknowns surrounding the coronavirus, could play a really big role here in November, too. But I’m not entirely sure which party would benefit.You could see maybe more Republicans turning out — virus, be damned — given some of the partisan splits on the coronavirus. Or maybe it’s a redux of what happened in Wisconsin if the effort to push for more mail ballots is driven largely by one party.Are there clues we can be looking toward now to help us understand the turnout factor come November?nrakich: I’m not sure we can know, Sarah, especially because of the coronavirus.I just think the best tool we have is to look at the polls.geoffrey.skelley: I haven’t seen recent polls asking about attention level and the election, but that could be something to look for, too.nrakich: Yeah, I bet that’s decreased since the pandemic took over the news.geoffrey.skelley: Good point — it might actually be a misleading indicator at this juncture.nrakich: One interesting thing that may or may not be important is that, according to the , both Biden’s and Trump’s vote share in polls went down as the pandemic started.Perhaps that suggests they’re feeling more uncertainty about the election?geoffrey.skelley: That’s possible. It could also just be something about the pollsters included in the average in that particular time period. 🤷‍♂️sarah: OK, we’ve talked about how the generic ballot currently gives Democrats about an 8-point lead over Republicans, which bodes well for them holding their majority in the House, but what about the Senate? What can we say there about each party’s relative advantages there?geoffrey.skelley: Unlike the House, the Senate isn’t a national election — regularly, along with two special elections in Arizona and Georgia this year. However, of those seats, , so Democrats have a fair amount of targets. The problem for Democrats is that Alabama is going to be tough to hold, so they need at least four seats plus the vice presidency to gain control. So I would still peg Republicans as favorites to hold it despite the environment.Another way to put it (editor-in-chief Nate Silver might approve) is that earlier in the cycle, I would’ve said Democrats needed an inside straight to get control of the Senate. But now they’re on a flush draw — — though they still need help.nrakich: Interesting… I think the Senate has to be considered a toss-up at this point. Republicans pretty much in Senate races because of the chamber’s rural bias. But Democrats seem to be doing well enough in the individual races this year that a 50-50 chamber seems like the modal outcome.According to the , Democrats are clearly ahead in Colorado and Arizona. North Carolina and Maine seem like toss-ups at worst for Democrats, and they might even be a little bit ahead. Even if they lose Alabama, that’s 50-50 already.Plus Democrats have several dark-horse opportunities, like Montana and Georgia.geoffrey.skelley: I would rank Montana and Iowa ahead of Georgia at this point, in terms of Democratic chances.The is a potential headache for Democrats.sarah: And remember how Indiana, Missouri and Florida went for Democrats in 2018 despite a very favorable national environment (they ). I know we’re saying that Senate elections aren’t national elections — and they aren’t — but Democrats taking back the Senate could still be very challenging.geoffrey.skelley: Right, with Senate contests is still slightly better for the GOP than for the Democrats. And that could make the difference in 2020, because remember that the state’s presidential result in 2016. True, Colorado and Maine, which currently have two GOP senators up for reelection, lean slightly Democratic, but states like Georgia, Iowa and Montana lean toward the GOP. That’s true of Arizona and North Carolina, too, to a lesser extent.nrakich: Sure, but Democrats could easily win the Senate even if every state once again votes the same way for president and Senate. It’s quite possible that Biden will carry Maine, Colorado, Arizona and North Carolina. If you take the literally, he’s probably ahead in all of those states.It just goes back to the question of, “Will there be a blue wave in 2020?”Biden winning those four states would require a mild blue wave.Although not necessarily a 2018-level one — D+6 should do it.geoffrey.skelley: For what it’s worth, another thing to remember is that waves tend to happen in midterms, not so much in presidential cycles, which usually are more evenly matched. The 2008 cycle is an outlier there. Just — the big shifts usually happen in midterms.It’s also worth remembering that the blue wave conversation may be more obvious in the Senate because of the nature of the map there. Because Democrats , I don’t think you’ll see a big gain for Democrats even if the environment is pretty favorable for them. There just isn’t much low-hanging fruit left for them to pick off, plus they have to defend some tough seats in GOP-leaning places.nrakich: That is fair. But the circumstances just seem very parallel to 2008. A tanking economy, an unpopular Republican president…geoffrey.skelley: To some extent, yes. Granted, Trump is seeking reelection, and even though he’s unpopular, he isn’t nearly as unpopular .sarah: Bold prediction, Nathaniel! But OK, on that note, what are the biggest unknowns we should be watching as we get closer to Election Day to understand whether another blue wave is in the cards?nrakich: This is a boring answer, but I’ll just be watching the polls. Special election results notwithstanding, I still think they’re our best indicator.But the polls in, like, October. I will fully grant that the polls right now could be misleading us.geoffrey.skelley: The polls right now are reasonably meaningful, but because presidential elections are just close by their nature these days, even a marginal shift could alter the outcome — and there would be down-ballot ramifications for such a shift. So yeah, let’s see where things are in the fall.nrakich: Right. As I , a normal polling error for a presidential general election is 4 points. So that 6-point Biden lead could actually be a 2-point Biden lead, which would make Republicans solid favorites in the Senate and would probably make the presidential race a toss-up given Trump’s likely Electoral College advantage.Of course, it could also be a 10-point Biden lead.🌊Sarah Frostenson is FiveThirtyEight’s politics editor.Geoffrey Skelley is a senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight.Nathaniel Rakich is a senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight.Filed underYou are now subscribed!Email AddressSign me up

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly . The transcript below has been lightly edited.sarah (, politics editor): The 2018 midterm elections were what we called Democrats in the House, making it the third-largest gain by any party in . However, as we cautioned then, this did not mean anything for what the electoral environment might look like in 2020. Two years is a lifetime in politics.But now we’re roughly six months away from Election Day, and it looks as if the electoral environment might once again favor Democrats. Take the Democrats’ lead over Republicans in our . It’s about 8 percentage...

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Will 2020 Be Another Blue Wave Election Year?

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