Name: Barring Trump From Office Is More Popular Than Convicting Him
Brand: fivethirtyeight.com
SKU: fivethirtyeight-com-70
Availability: OnlineOnly

critic

Barring Trump From Office Is More Popular Than Convicting Him

preview

Former President Donald Trump is the only president to have been impeached twice by the House of Representatives. And the fact that his second impeachment trial will now happen after he’s already left office further complicates things. (In addition to being the only president to be impeached twice, he is the only president to face an impeachment trial after leaving office.)As a sign of where things are headed: Just five Senate Republicans agreed that in an earlier procedural vote in January, suggesting that it is extremely unlikely Democrats garner the 17 Republican votes necessary to convict Trump.Public opinion, though, does show a majority supported Trump’s impeachment — , said they supported Trump being removed from office before he left the White House on Jan. 20.That’s , when only on both articles of impeachment: charges of abuse of power and obstruction of Congress after pressuring Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky to investigate now-President Joe Biden and his son Hunter.However, as was true in 2019, there is a slight difference between support for Trump’s impeachment, which takes place in the House of Representatives, and support for his — the step that would have removed him from office, were he still there, and could lead to him being barred from running for federal office again. Right now, recent polls show that support for conviction sits at about 50 percent; that 3-percentage-point difference in support is similar to the difference in 2019, when support for removal throughout the process.Interestingly, though, while support for conviction is lower than support for Trump’s impeachment, there is some evidence more Americans support barring Trump from holding future political office: 55 percent overall back this, according to a FiveThirtyEight average of 13 polls. And as you can see in the table below, this is true among both Democrats (88 percent support barring Trump from office, compared to 85 percent who support conviction) and Republicans (where those numbers are 20 and 13 percent, respectively).PartyConvictionBarringfrom officeDemocratic85.1%–87.8%–Republican13.2–19.8–Independent46.2–49.6–All50.2–55.1–But despite public support for it, barring Trump from office probably isn’t an option. Trump would likely before senators could vote on barring him from running for federal office. And since 45 Senate Republicans have already voted that the trial is unconstitutional, 67 senators voting to convict Trump seems like a long shot.And as the , opinions on something this politically polarized don’t easily shift. The initial response to the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol may have briefly , but with Republican senators now largely refusing to entertain the possibility of impeachment, and House members like Rep. Liz Cheney , any potential momentum from that event seems to be well and truly quashed.and contributed research.Laura Bronner is a senior applied scientist at ETH Zürich and FiveThirtyEight’s former quantitative editor.Filed underYou are now subscribed!Email AddressSign me up

Former President Donald Trump is the only president to have been impeached twice by the House of Representatives. And the fact that his second impeachment trial will now happen after he’s already left office further complicates things. (In addition to being the only president to be impeached twice, he is the only president to face an impeachment trial after leaving office.)As a sign of where things are headed: Just five Senate Republicans agreed that in an earlier procedural vote in January, suggesting that it is extremely unlikely Democrats garner the 17 Republican votes necessary to...

public

Laura Bronner

Data-driven news and analysis from ABC News’s FiveThirtyEight

fivethirtyeight.com

Credible

Speculation

Anecdotal Evidence

Generalization

Stacking the Deck

Appeal to Authority

Straw Man

Slippery Slope

Emotional Appeal

Red Herring

False Dilemma

Illogical

Moral Equivalency

Ad Hominem

Correlation w/o Causation

Semantics

Begging the Question

Faulty Analogy

Non Sequitur

Bandwagon

Dogmatism

Failing Occam's Razor

Biased

Pure Opinion

Hit Piece

Racial Bias

National Bias

Religious Bias

Financial Incentive

Political Agenda

Gender Bias

Misused Image/Video

Study Misinterpreted

Mistake

Misused Term

Science Misrepresented

Factual Error

Satire

Surface Level

Lack of Reliable Sources

Sensational

Not Credible

Investigative

Balanced

Well Sourced

Great Context

sports

entertainment

U.S.

international

business

technology

science

culture

politics

media

health

Barring Trump From Office Is More Popular Than Convicting Him

No article scores yet.

CRITIC REVIEWS

PUBLIC REVIEWS