The Eternal Sunshine of March Rate Cut Doves Maybe the Federal Reserve should hang a sign outside the front windows of the Eccles Building on C Street in Washington, D.C. announcing that it will reopen for business in the fall. Fed officials have said they are closely watching the data to determine when it might be appropriate to lower their target for the federal fund benchmark interest rate. Yet while the economic data has made it very clear that the economy did not slow by as much as anticipated in the fourth quarter of 2023, consumer spending is accelerating, and the labor market...…The Eternal Sunshine of March Rate Cut Doves Maybe the Federal Reserve should hang a sign outside the front windows of the Eccles Building on C Street in Washington, D.C. announcing that it will reopen for business in the fall. Fed officials have said they are closely watching the data to determine when it might be appropriate to lower their target for the federal fund benchmark interest rate. Yet while the economic data has made it very clear that the economy did not slow by as much as anticipated in the fourth quarter of 2023, consumer spending is accelerating, and the labor market...WW…

Employers in the United States accelerated hiring in December, adding 216,000 workers to their payrolls, the Department of Labor said Friday. The unemployment rate was unchanged from 3.7 percent in the prior month. Economists had expected the economy to add 170,000 after payrolls were reported as increasing by 199,0000 in November and 150.000 in October. The November figure was revised down to 173,000 and the October figure was revised down to 105,000. That totals to 71,000 fewer jobs. In September, employers grew their payrolls by 262,000. In August, payrolls rose by 227,000. The...…Employers in the United States accelerated hiring in December, adding 216,000 workers to their payrolls, the Department of Labor said Friday. The unemployment rate was unchanged from 3.7 percent in the prior month. Economists had expected the economy to add 170,000 after payrolls were reported as increasing by 199,0000 in November and 150.000 in October. The November figure was revised down to 173,000 and the October figure was revised down to 105,000. That totals to 71,000 fewer jobs. In September, employers grew their payrolls by 262,000. In August, payrolls rose by 227,000. The...WW…

President Biden will propose a hike in the capital gains tax to 43.4 percent for top earners, nearly twice the current rate, Bloomberg News Thursday.U.S. stocks turned lower on the report, with the S&P giving up all its gains for the day and declining by 0.5 percent. Nine out of eleven sectors in the S&P fell, with health care and real estate barely hanging on to positive territory.The new rate of 39.6 percent would apply to wealthy taxpayers with incomes over one million dollars. The 3.8 percent investment income tax that funds part of Obamacare would also apply, bringing to top...…President Biden will propose a hike in the capital gains tax to 43.4 percent for top earners, nearly twice the current rate, Bloomberg News Thursday.U.S. stocks turned lower on the report, with the S&P giving up all its gains for the day and declining by 0.5 percent. Nine out of eleven sectors in the S&P fell, with health care and real estate barely hanging on to positive territory.The new rate of 39.6 percent would apply to wealthy taxpayers with incomes over one million dollars. The 3.8 percent investment income tax that funds part of Obamacare would also apply, bringing to top...WW…

New weekly jobless claims rose to 744,000 for the week that ended April 3rd, the Department of Labor Thursday.Economists had forecast a decline to 680,000 from the previous week’s 719,000. This is the second consecutive week in which initial jobless claims moved up in contradiction to expectations. The upper end of the range of forecasts in the Econoday survey was 705,000.Jobless claims can be volatile week to week so economists like to look at the four-week average. This rose by 2,500 to 723,750.Continuing claims, which get reported with a week’s lag, fell to 3,734,000, a decrease of...…New weekly jobless claims rose to 744,000 for the week that ended April 3rd, the Department of Labor Thursday.Economists had forecast a decline to 680,000 from the previous week’s 719,000. This is the second consecutive week in which initial jobless claims moved up in contradiction to expectations. The upper end of the range of forecasts in the Econoday survey was 705,000.Jobless claims can be volatile week to week so economists like to look at the four-week average. This rose by 2,500 to 723,750.Continuing claims, which get reported with a week’s lag, fell to 3,734,000, a decrease of...WW…

New weekly jobless claims rose 61,000 to 719,000 for the week that ended March 27, the Department of Labor said Thursday.Economists surveyed by Econoday had forecast a decline to 680,000 from the previous week’s initial estimate of 684,000. The previous week’s level was revised down by 26,000 from 684,000 to 658,000Jobless claims can be volatile week to week so economists like to look at the four-week average. This fell to 719,000, a decrease of 10,500 from the previous week’s revised average.  That is the lowest level for this average since March 14, 2020.Continuing claims,...…New weekly jobless claims rose 61,000 to 719,000 for the week that ended March 27, the Department of Labor said Thursday.Economists surveyed by Econoday had forecast a decline to 680,000 from the previous week’s initial estimate of 684,000. The previous week’s level was revised down by 26,000 from 684,000 to 658,000Jobless claims can be volatile week to week so economists like to look at the four-week average. This fell to 719,000, a decrease of 10,500 from the previous week’s revised average.  That is the lowest level for this average since March 14, 2020.Continuing claims,...WW…

Manufacturing activity in Texas rocketed in March as the state ended its pandemic restrictions,  to business executives responding to the Dallas Fed’s Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.Governor Greg Abbott announced on March 3 an executive order that ended the statewide mask mandate and allowed businesses to reopen at 100 percent capacity on March 10. Business activity took off with explosive growth.The Dallas Fed said manufacturing expanded at “a markedly faster pace.” The survey’s production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, jumped 28 points to 48.0, the...…Manufacturing activity in Texas rocketed in March as the state ended its pandemic restrictions,  to business executives responding to the Dallas Fed’s Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.Governor Greg Abbott announced on March 3 an executive order that ended the statewide mask mandate and allowed businesses to reopen at 100 percent capacity on March 10. Business activity took off with explosive growth.The Dallas Fed said manufacturing expanded at “a markedly faster pace.” The survey’s production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, jumped 28 points to 48.0, the...WW…

In a bid to keep moderate Democratic Senators on board the push for his coronavirus relief package, President Joe Biden has signed off on a plan to tighten eligibility for direct stimulus payments, according to multiple reports.The direct payments would remain at the $1,400 level, the phase-outs thresnholds would remain the same, but caps would fall. As a result, more Americans would be cut off from payments.In the revised proposal, individual filers earning over $80,000 would not qualify for the payments. That’s down from the $100,000 cap in the House bill. Married couples would be cut off...…In a bid to keep moderate Democratic Senators on board the push for his coronavirus relief package, President Joe Biden has signed off on a plan to tighten eligibility for direct stimulus payments, according to multiple reports.The direct payments would remain at the $1,400 level, the phase-outs thresnholds would remain the same, but caps would fall. As a result, more Americans would be cut off from payments.In the revised proposal, individual filers earning over $80,000 would not qualify for the payments. That’s down from the $100,000 cap in the House bill. Married couples would be cut off...WW…

The year the pandemic threw tens of millions of Americans out of work was extraordinarily good for the bank accounts of the wealthiest hedge fund managers.The top 25 hedge fund bosses made $32 billion, according to Institutional Investor’s annual . The list was published Monday.The top earner was Izzy Englander of Millennium Management, who took home an estimated $3.8 billion in 2020. His flagship fund achieved a 26 percent return. The prior year he was number six on the list with $750 million and the year before that he was in fifth place at $975 million.There were far more...…The year the pandemic threw tens of millions of Americans out of work was extraordinarily good for the bank accounts of the wealthiest hedge fund managers.The top 25 hedge fund bosses made $32 billion, according to Institutional Investor’s annual . The list was published Monday.The top earner was Izzy Englander of Millennium Management, who took home an estimated $3.8 billion in 2020. His flagship fund achieved a 26 percent return. The prior year he was number six on the list with $750 million and the year before that he was in fifth place at $975 million.There were far more...WW…

One of the world’s leading liberal economists dealt Joe Biden a blow in recent days, warning that the president’s $1.9 trillion covid relief legislation could ignite an inflationary conflagration.Olivier Blanchard, the former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund and perhaps the most cited economist in the world, spelled out his case against the Biden bill in a series of tweets on Saturday.Blanchard’s argument is that the size of the stimulus injected into the economy would be too large, especially when added to the measures taken last year. The additional spending power...…One of the world’s leading liberal economists dealt Joe Biden a blow in recent days, warning that the president’s $1.9 trillion covid relief legislation could ignite an inflationary conflagration.Olivier Blanchard, the former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund and perhaps the most cited economist in the world, spelled out his case against the Biden bill in a series of tweets on Saturday.Blanchard’s argument is that the size of the stimulus injected into the economy would be too large, especially when added to the measures taken last year. The additional spending power...WW…

A key barometer of future economic growth is indicating that the U.S. will slip into a recession later this year, with the economy contracting between April and September. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index, a composite of various economic indicators that is designed to predict peaks and troughs of the U.S. economy, fell 0.1 percent in December. The decline was smaller than expected and smaller than the prior month. Economists had forecast a 0.3 percent decline in the index after a 0.5 percent contraction in November. The index has fallen 2.9 percent in the last six months, a...…A key barometer of future economic growth is indicating that the U.S. will slip into a recession later this year, with the economy contracting between April and September. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index, a composite of various economic indicators that is designed to predict peaks and troughs of the U.S. economy, fell 0.1 percent in December. The decline was smaller than expected and smaller than the prior month. Economists had forecast a 0.3 percent decline in the index after a 0.5 percent contraction in November. The index has fallen 2.9 percent in the last six months, a...WW…