James Hamblin
James Hamblin
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You’re Likely to Get the Coronavirus

You’re Likely to Get the Coronavirus

Updated at 7:43 p.m. on Feb. 25, 2020.In May 1997, a 3-year-old boy what at first seemed like the common cold. When his symptoms—sore throat, fever, and cough—persisted for six days, he was taken to the Queen Elizabeth Hospital in Hong Kong. There his cough worsened, and he began gasping for air. Despite intensive care, the boy died.Puzzled by his rapid deterioration, doctors sent a sample of the boy’s sputum to China’s Department of Health. But the standard testing protocol couldn’t fully identify the virus that had caused the disease. The chief virologist decided to ship some of the...

February 29, 2020
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How Trump Sold Failure to 70 Million People

How Trump Sold Failure to 70 Million People

At some basic level, Americans do seem to agree that the coronavirus is a major threat. Despite attempts to politicize and divide us on the pandemic, we are at least united in anxiety. In September, a of almost 4,000 Americans found that only 12 percent disagreed with requiring masks in public. Fully 70 percent wanted the government to do more to protect people, and only 8 percent wanted it to do less.Since then, though, the government under President Donald Trump has done less. The U.S. has suffered the most documented coronavirus deaths in the world, by far. The Trump administration has...

November 10, 2020
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The Probable Outcomes of Trump’s Diagnosis

The Probable Outcomes of Trump’s Diagnosis

Updated at 5:55 p.m. ET on October 2, 2020Donald Trump is 74, and he is male.Little else is known about his physical condition. Throughout his presidency, he has disclosed almost nothing in the way of medical records. He , by one of his former doctors, of dictating his medical assessment as a candidate in 2016. Even Trump’s body-mass index—a basic, objective measure of a person’s body weight divided by their height—is . His reported height increased by an inch in his 2018 physical exam, which left him one pound shy of for his height.This is the context in which, in the predawn hours this...

October 2, 2020
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A Quite Possibly Wonderful Summer

A Quite Possibly Wonderful Summer

Updated on February 22, 2021 at 9:55 p.m. ETThe summer of 2021 is shaping up to be historic.After months of soaring deaths and infections, COVID-19 cases across the United States are declining even more sharply than experts . This is expected to continue, and rates of serious illness and death will even faster than cases, as high-risk populations are vaccinated. Even academics who have spent the pandemic delivering ominous warnings have shifted their tone to cautiously optimistic now that vaccination rates are exploding.Until very recently, Anthony Fauci had been citing August as the month...

February 19, 2021
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You’re Showering Too Much

You’re Showering Too Much

Iwhen the Canadian air starts drying out, the men flock to Sandy Skotnicki’s office. The men are itchy. Skotnicki studied microbiology before becoming an assistant professor of dermatology at the University of Toronto. She has been practicing for 23 years, always with an eye to how the environment—including the microbial one on our skin—affects health. “I say to them, ‘How do you shower?’ ” she told me. “They take the squeegee thing and wash their whole body with some sort of men’s body wash. They’re showering twice a day because they’re working out. As soon as I get them to stop doing that...

June 22, 2020
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What You Can Do Right Now About the Coronavirus

What You Can Do Right Now About the Coronavirus

Updated at 9:38 a.m. ET on March 17, 2020.The coronavirus is now testing the global population in ways no microbe has for a century. Much is unknown about exactly how this particular virus causes the disease known as COVID-19, but much is known about how best to stop it. The basic principles of disease mitigation that have worked reliably for millennia— and social distancing—are no less applicable today.While the world and medications, slowing the spread of the new virus is crucial. The more people who are infected at once in a given area, the greater the strain on local health-care...

March 10, 2020
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A New Understanding of Herd Immunity

A New Understanding of Herd Immunity

Edward Lorenz was just out of college when he was recruited into World War II. He was assigned to be a weather forecaster, despite having no experience in meteorology. What Lorenz knew was math.So he started experimenting with differential equations, trying to make predictions based on patterns in data on past temperatures and pressures. One day, while testing his system, he repeated a simulation with a few decimals rounded off in the data. To his surprise, a radically different future emerged.He called this finding “the butterfly effect.” In a complex model, where each day’s weather...

July 13, 2020
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