Name: California scales down projections for Bay Area coronavirus spread
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California scales down projections for Bay Area coronavirus spread

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Two weeks ago, the state of California released full of estimations for the level of coronavirus transmission in every county, as well as projections for future deaths and hospitalizations.Using estimates from models by UCLA, Imperial College London and more, the state calculates the current base reproduction number — often referred to as R "naught," R0, or R-effective — in each county. R0 represents the expected number of additional cases generated by one known case in a population where all individuals are susceptible to infection. If R0 is significantly over 1, a county will see "exponential spread" of the virus.The state the spread of the coronavirus was increasing in six Bay Area counties, with the spread of the virus "rapidly" increasing in Marin County. Over the past two weeks, the forecasts has become much more sanguine. Here are the state's R0 estimates for the nine Bay Area counties, in addition to the state's designation for each.Alameda: R0 = 1.06 "Spread of COVID-19 is likely stable." Was 1.0 on June 25.Contra Costa: R0 = 1.18 "Spread of COVID-19 likely increasing." Was 1.29 on June 25.Marin: R0 = 0.89 "Spread of COVID-19 is likely decreasing." Was 1.42 on June 25.Napa: R0 = 1.01 "Spread of COVID-19 is likely stable." Was 1.18 on June 25.San Francisco: R0 = 0.95 "Spread of COVID-19 is likely stable." Was 1.06 on June 25.San Mateo: R0 = 1.02 "Spread of COVID-19 is likely stable." Was 1.13 on June 25.Santa Clara: R0 = 0.99 "Spread of COVID-19 is likely stable." Was 1.0 on June 25.Solano: R0 = 1.11 "Spread of COVID-19 likely increasing." Was 1.14 on June 25.Sonoma: R0 = 0.93 "Spread of COVID-19 likely stable." Was 1.16 on June 25.Marin County's previously large base reproduction figure coincided with the beginning of the outbreak at San Quentin State Prison. Prison cases are not counted in the county's official case totals, but a county spokesperson told SFGATE that the state's models did use the San Quentin figures in its projections.The Marin County spokesperson said San Quentin's numbers are still part of the county's updated R0 projections, and in fact, the county believes the dramatic reduction in R0 would not have happened had the prison numbers not been part of the total. The county's epidemiology team notes that the number of active cases at San Quentin has sharply decreased in the last week, and as a result, the county believes this rapid change over time in active cases has led to the dramatic reduction in R0.MORE CORONAVIRUS COVERAGE:Sign up for 'The Daily' newsletter for the latest on coronavirus&nbsp;.— — — — —Health official: Trump rally 'likely' source of virus surgeEric Ting is an SFGATE digital reporter. Email: | Twitter:

Two weeks ago, the state of California released full of estimations for the level of coronavirus transmission in every county, as well as projections for future deaths and hospitalizations.Using estimates from models by UCLA, Imperial College London and more, the state calculates the current base reproduction number — often referred to as R "naught," R0, or R-effective — in each county. R0 represents the expected number of additional cases generated by one known case in a population where all individuals are susceptible to infection. If R0 is significantly over 1, a county will see...

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California scales down projections for Bay Area coronavirus spread

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