Name: How long will it take to gauge the impact of George Floyd protests on coronavirus spread
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How long will it take to gauge the impact of George Floyd protests on coronavirus spread

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This is a carousel. Use Next and Previous buttons to navigateWhen discussing his state's reopening plan in early May, California Gov. Gavin Newsom shared the one thing state health experts told him are all but assured to accelerate the spread of the coronavirus."The only thing that is assured to advance the spread of the virus is thousands of people congregated together not practicing social distancing or physical distancing," .One month later, thousands of people came together for large demonstrations following the death of George Floyd— and images from protests across the country have not shown much physical distancing. Some, such as Dr. Anthony Fauci, , confirmed cases and hospitalizations, and UCSF epidemiologist Dr. George Rutherford believes we'll be able to gauge the impact of the protests on transmission very soon."Pick any day of protest, and then look seven, eight, nine or 10 days after the protest," he said. "I think the easiest thing to look at is case counts, which is&nbsp; not a perfect metric since you have to factor in increased testing. We're finding more asymptomatic cases now, so it's not exactly comparable to March and April, when most detected cases were symptomatic. Now in May and June, we're catching more asymptomatic cases so it can be hard to interpret since we're finding more infections."Rutherford believes that up to 60% of infections are either asymptomatic or so mild an individual does not think to get tested — which means that increased testing will yield more confirmed cases if you expand testing to be available to anyone regardless of symptoms. Because of enhanced testing capabilities, Rutherford believes hospitalizations and percent positivity of tests .However, even when looking at confirmed case counts, Rutherford is encouraged by what he sees in Minnesota, which is where the protests started on the week of May 25. It has been almost a full two weeks since the protests began, and the number of new confirmed cases statewide ."Minnesota (is) falling steadily; there's one slight uptick on June 1 but that may be because of weekend reporting lags," he said. "But it's all trending down. If you look back seven to 10 days, you would expect to be seeing a significant jump by now."Rutherford also noted that the number of new cases is cases falling in the Washington D.C. area, another region where the protests started two weeks ago. It won't be long before officials will be able to gauge the impact of protests everywhere, Rutherford believes."If the protests don't cause a jump in confirmed cases, there are two reasons for it. One: transmission didn’t occur at a great extent thanks to masks, social distancing, and people being outside," he said. "Or Two: there was an increase in transmission but we're not seeing it because asymptomatic and presymptomatic people aren't being tested."The vast majority of protesters did not maintain six feet of physical distancing at all times, which means masks and and the open-air environment may have helped keep transmission low."Masks are the most important thing," Rutherford said. "I would say masks trump social distancing as far as a practical protection. And the open air, where the virus is not being held in by four walls, a roof and floor also helps."If the protests do not lead to a surge in transmission, Rutherford believes there are a number of implications for future restrictions pertaining to large outdoor gatherings such as sports and concerts."Yes, absolutely," Rutherford said when asked if he can see an future where spectators attend NFL and college football games this fall but with masks on. "Or even indoors, specifically the Dallas Cowboys' stadium. I was joking to someone the other day, 'Do you really think Jerry Jones isn't going to start the season with a full stadium?' Personally, I’d want every other seat sold to enforce physical distancing but that would never happen because you can't sell as many tickets."Because a large percentage of the protesters wore masks over the past two weeks, Rutherford believes there is at least one clear takeaway from an epidemiological standpoint."Masks work," he said. "This is not great science and no one is going to win the Nobel Prize for it, but if you have a large upswing in activity, and then seven to 10 days after the event, not a lot of transmission went on, that's not nothing."MORE CORONAVIRUS COVERAGE:Sign up for 'The Daily' newsletter for the latest on coronavirus&nbsp;.Eric Ting is an SFGATE digital reporter. Email: | Twitter:

This is a carousel. Use Next and Previous buttons to navigateWhen discussing his state's reopening plan in early May, California Gov. Gavin Newsom shared the one thing state health experts told him are all but assured to accelerate the spread of the coronavirus."The only thing that is assured to advance the spread of the virus is thousands of people congregated together not practicing social distancing or physical distancing," .One month later, thousands of people came together for large demonstrations following the death of George Floyd— and images from protests across the country have not...

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Eric Ting

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How long will it take to gauge the impact of George Floyd protests on coronavirus spread

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