Name: Iowa researchers submit state-specific COVID-19 modeling that Reynolds' office has not yet released, is reviewing
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Iowa researchers submit state-specific COVID-19 modeling that Reynolds' office has not yet released, is reviewing

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Get the newsShare This Story!Let friends in your social network know what you are reading aboutThe full scope of the report is unclear, but it may offer the public some clues on Iowa's direction in combating the respiratory illness.A link has been sent to your friend's email address.A link has been posted to your Facebook feed. Join the ConversationTo find out more about Facebook commenting please read theWelcome to our new and improved comments.This is a test to see whether we can improve the experience for you.You do not need a Facebook profile to participate.You will need to register before adding a comment.Typed comments will be lost if you are not logged in.Please be polite.It's OK to disagree with someone's ideas, but personal attacks, insults, threats, hate speech, advocating violence and other violations can result in a ban.If you see comments in violation of our , please report them.CLOSEGov. Reynolds permitted statewide health systems to resume elective procedures as well as farmers' markets under distancing parameters starting April 27. Reynolds stated the end of April as when the currentResearchers at the University of Iowa submitted a report to Gov. Kim Reynolds’ administration that presented state public health officials with predictions on COVID-19 activity in Iowa, including expected hospitalizations and deaths.The governor's office has yet to release the report publicly.&nbsp;Joe Cavanaugh, head of the biostatistics department at the university’s&nbsp;College of Public Health, told the Des Moines Register that the report given to the Iowa Department of Public Health&nbsp;includes “Iowa-specific models” using data from publicly available sources.Cavanaugh confirmed the report’s existence to the Register on Thursday afternoon.&nbsp;The Register has since made multiple requests to IDPH for the report, which has not been made public.It’s unclear how long state officials have had the report. Pat Garrett, a spokesman for Reynolds, said on Monday morning in an email that the governor's office and state public health officials are "in the process of reviewing the model and plans to share this information with the public."The full scope of the report is unclear, but it may offer the public some clues on Iowa's direction in combating the respiratory illness.Cavanaugh’s team has been developing COVID-19 modeling for the department as part of a contract signed earlier this month. This report is separate from that work, which is expected to include more IDPH data,&nbsp;according to Cavanaugh. He said in an email that they pursued the extra research “to assist IDPH in its response to the COVID-19 pandemic.”Iowa has recorded ,&nbsp;as officials ramp up testing in areas with suspected outbreaks. On Saturday, the state reported 648 new cases, a record for one-day increases.Dr.&nbsp;Caitlin Pedati, Iowa's state medical director and epidemiologist, implied on Thursday during a news conference that predictive information around&nbsp;COVID-19 activity in Iowa is not yet available."We're still working on putting together some Iowa specific numbers and when we have that we'll be making it available," she said.On Friday, Reynolds .&nbsp;It's unclear whether the report played any role in&nbsp;Reynolds' decision-making."It will be done in a responsible and safe manner," Reynolds said at the time about reopening plans, "but we are at a place where it’s time to start having that discussion."The state public health department has&nbsp;not responded to multiple requests for comment. Garrett with Reynolds’ office did not respond to questions about when the report was submitted and the additional information it provides.According to Cavanaugh, UI researchers are conducting a three-phase project for the state. The report&nbsp;they submitted is helping researchers complete that work.The report with&nbsp;"Iowa-specific models” from publicly available sources is similar to national models that have predicted&nbsp;hospitalizations, intensive care beds, ventilator needs and deaths, according to Cavanaugh."We have formulated three modeling frameworks based on different paradigms with complementary objectives,"&nbsp;Cavanaugh said in an email&nbsp;to the Register about the report. "These endeavors have been largely completed and the results have been shared with the Iowa Department of Public Health."Cavanaugh said his team also turned in another report, as part of the first phase of its work, that critiqued a frequently cited model developed by researchers at the University of Washington.The model, known as Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation model or IHME,&nbsp;has been providing national and state-specific projections for COVID-19. For weeks, Reynolds and public health officials said the model did not take into account the state's mitigation efforts in closing businesses and schools. Reynolds ultimately has resisted calls to issue a statewide order for Iowans to stay home for non-essential travel.Dr. Theo Vos, a professor of health metrics sciences at IHME,&nbsp;helped develop the&nbsp;widely-cited model.&nbsp;He said If an area hasn’t peaked in its number of cases, don’t lift restrictions"I think you could easily predict that with still a reasonable number of new infected cases in the community, and the number of cases still probably being on the raise and not having peaked yet, I think if you start lifting restrictions that you're going to be in trouble."The third phase of the project, according to&nbsp;Cavanaugh, is to refine&nbsp;the state-specific models using data prepared by IDPH "so that the models are uniquely tailored to Iowa."Researchers are also developing an&nbsp;application that will allow IDPH "to provide inputs based on various mitigation measures (e.g., social distancing, facemasks, face shields) to assess their future impact," according to Cavanaugh.Amy McCoy, a spokeswoman for the state’s public health department, did not respond to multiple requests for comment&nbsp;over several days.Department public health officials have indicated that they view state-specific modeling as one tool in determining their next policy decisions. Pedati noted&nbsp;that such modeling is limited,&nbsp;and the department is reviewing publicly available data while communicating&nbsp;with&nbsp;federal and local public health officials."It's a helpful tool&nbsp;but it can change, depending on personal actions and what we all do to help limit the spread of the virus," she said on Thursday.Pedati made the remarks&nbsp;alongside Reynolds, who added that&nbsp;&nbsp;will also help state officials monitor potential COVID-19 clusters. The $26 million program, led by Utah-based companies that&nbsp;&nbsp;suggested to the governor,&nbsp;involves getting&nbsp;Iowans to voluntarily complete&nbsp;health assessments online."That's gonna help drive some of the metrics that we use," she said.Reynolds and state public health officials have not yet released modeling about COVID-19 predictions in Iowa, which was first detected on March 8. That's a contrast to&nbsp;some&nbsp;neighboring Midwest states including&nbsp;,&nbsp;&nbsp;and&nbsp;.Sarah Reisetter,&nbsp;the deputy director for the Iowa public health department, said Friday that Iowa is likely to see a peak in COVID-19 cases&nbsp;"in the next two to three weeks" as testing improves. She&nbsp;, nearly four weeks ago.On April 1, Reynolds' chief of staff told some lawmakers that state modeling from the University of Iowa&nbsp;.This article is available free as a service to our community during the coronavirus outbreak.&nbsp;On April 7, around the time that Reynolds' aide had committed to sharing information publicly and one month after the state reported its first three cases, the public health department finalized a contract with the university to begin the forecasting work. Reynolds later told reporters that communication over the modeling had been ongoing before the contract was signed.&nbsp;Register reporter Nick Coltrain contributed to this report.Barbara Rodriguez covers health care and politics for the Register. She can be reached by email at bcrodriguez@registermedia.com or by phone at 515-284-8011. Follow her on Twitter .Your subscription makes work like this possible. Sign up at&nbsp;.Read or Share this story: https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/health/2020/04/27/researchers-university-iowa-submitted-report-gov-kim-reynolds-administration-presented-state-public/3016909001/to help improve our site experience!More Stories

Get the newsShare This Story!Let friends in your social network know what you are reading aboutThe full scope of the report is unclear, but it may offer the public some clues on Iowa's direction in combating the respiratory illness.A link has been sent to your friend's email address.A link has been posted to your Facebook feed. Join the ConversationTo find out more about Facebook commenting please read theWelcome to our new and improved comments.This is a test to see whether we can improve the experience for you.You do not need a Facebook profile to participate.You will need to register...

Iowa researchers submit state-specific COVID-19 modeling that Reynolds' office has not yet released, is reviewing

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