Name: The Deals That Have Shaped The NHL Season (So Far)
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The Deals That Have Shaped The NHL Season (So Far)

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The NHL’s trade deadline is in , and with it will come each team’s last big chance to meaningfully upgrade its roster on the path to the playoffs. But some of the most important moves of the 2021 season have already happened, with effects already evident on the ice and in the standings as we approach the halfway mark of the schedule. So which teams have gotten the most value from their recent arrivals? We looked at teams with at least a 40 percent chance to make the playoffs (according to using ) and found those whose newest additions have added the most in through Wednesday’s games.GAR per 82 from newcomers: 64.8 (40 percent of team total)Biggest moves: Signed C Tyler Toffoli (20.5 GAR/82) and RW Corey Perry (5.2); traded for G Jake Allen (13.7), RW Josh Anderson (11.5) and D Joel Edmundson (10.8)Playoff probability: 81 percentAfter a hot start — and — the Canadiens are still in solid shape to make the playoffs. In part, that’s because they currently rank in points percentage and have an easier remaining schedule than any of the teams below them. But it’s also because they’ve gotten a ton of production from the general manager Marc Bergevin made last offseason. Some of those moves were not without risk. Montreal offensively gifted forward Max Domi (and a third-round pick) to Columbus for big winger Josh Anderson, who was coming off the ; it also center Tyler Toffoli to a four-year, $17 million contract despite his production being down (7.7 GAR/82) since his 2015-16 peak (16.5). But practically all of Bergevin’s pickups have exceeded expectations this year, as Toffoli ranks 16th among forwards with 20.5 GAR/82, Anderson has bounced back with a solid performance, and netminder Jake Allen has helped salvage the Habs’ in spite of starter Carey Price’s . As a result, no team has gotten more value from its new arrivals than Montreal so far this season, and it has made a big difference for the Habs’ postseason bid.GAR per 82 from newcomers: 48.4 (40 percent of team total)Biggest moves: Called up G Kevin Lankinen (24.6 GAR/82); recalled F Pius Suter (7.3); signed C Mattias Janmark (6.6)Playoff probability: 48 percentPlaying in the , the Hawks are more likely to miss the playoffs than make them after a recent skid. But the fact that they’re even in the mix has a lot to do with some key newcomers bolstering Chicago’s usual core (led by right wing Patrick Kane, who himself is ). In particular, a couple of undrafted rookies are paying big dividends for the team so far, starting with Kevin Lankinen between the pipes. Lankinen went into the year third on the Hawks’ goalie depth chart, but he’s worked his way up and currently ranks fourth in the league in GAR among goaltenders this season. Winger Pius Suter has also been a very pleasant surprise after his native Switzerland and several NHL teams’ camps over the past few seasons. Between those two breakouts and the pickup of ex-Stars center Mattias Janmark (whose offensive output has been similar to Suter’s), the Hawks have gotten the second-most value from newcomers of any team — despite the fact that a few of their other, bigger-name (Nikita Zadorov, Carl Soderberg) are having somewhat disappointing seasons. In turn, that’s helped keep postseason hopes alive for a team that seemed destined for the basement after and the news that future Hall of Fame center Jonathan Toews with a long-term illness.GAR per 82 from newcomers: 41.1 (25 percent of team total)Biggest moves: Traded for RW Patric Hörnqvist (14.5 GAR/82); signed C Carter Verhaeghe (12.5)Playoff probability: 93 percentIn to win a playoff series for the first time , the Panthers have gotten plenty of production from such usual suspects as forwards Aleksander Barkov and Jonathan Huberdeau and defensemen Aaron Ekblad and Keith Yandle. They’ve also gotten great goaltending from Chris Driedger — who, yes, is newly in net, but has been in Florida’s organization . However, the team might finally get its push over the top from a handful of important acquisitions made this past offseason by busy new GM Bill Zito. To strengthen his forward depth, Zito defenseman Mike Matheson and checking center Colton Sceviour to Pittsburgh for scoring right wing Patric Hornqvist. He also wingers Anthony Duclair and Mason Marchment and centers Alexander Wennberg and Carter Verhaeghe to cost-effective contracts, to go with a deal for physical D-man Radko Gudas. All of those additions have either met or exceeded expectations in the first half of the 2021 season, giving Florida a big boost in the standings. With an increase of 58 percentage points so far, no team has gained more playoff probability since preseason than the Panthers.Related:The Florida Panthers Haven’t Made A Real Playoff Run In Decades. That Could Change This Year.GAR per 82 from newcomers: 38.2 (20 percent of team total)Biggest moves: Signed G Michael Hutchinson (12.4 GAR/82), D T.J. Brodie (7.7) and C Joe Thornton (5.7)Playoff probability: 99 percentAlthough Toronto in the past week, the Leafs a formidable Stanley Cup contender. (Which is something that !) That’s mostly thanks to the homegrown quartet of forwards Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander and D-man Morgan Rielly, along with 2018 John Tavares. But the Leafs have gotten some nice production from their newcomers on the margins, too. reserve goalie Michael Hutchinson has been the sixth-best backup in hockey this year by GAR, after being via free agency in October. Defenseman T.J. Brodie has lived up to expectations in the first year of a four-year, $20 million contract, forwards Travis Boyd and Jimmy Vesey have provided a spark , and right wing Wayne Simmonds — the former 30-goal scorer was playing well before an injury in early February. Last but not least, 41-year-old Joe Thornton is in his Toronto debut (and 23rd season in the NHL overall). While holdovers have largely powered the Leafs’ strong season, they wouldn’t have a 7 percent chance of winning the franchise’s first Cup without the contributions from their newcomers.GAR per 82 from newcomers: 29.6 (23 percent of team total)Biggest moves: Signed D Justin Schultz (11.2 GAR/82) and D Zdeno Chara (8.8)Playoff probability: 77 percentLast season, two years removed from , the Capitals in goals allowed and in save percentage, eventually against a vastly better defensive team in the New York Islanders. But Washington addressed some of those shortcomings over the offseason, Justin Schultz and former Bruins captain Zdeno Chara to free agent deals on the blueline. Both have provided strong early returns. The team also had designs on replacing longtime netminder Braden Holtby (who ) with erstwhile Rangers legend Henrik Lundqvist; those plans were put on hold when Lundqvist to have a potentially serious heart condition. However, that opened up an opportunity for rookie Vitek Vanecek to in net this season, and the 25-year-old has responded well to the challenge, adding to the Caps’ GAR tally from newcomers. Add in the solid play of forwards Conor Sheary (acquired in free agency) and Daniel Sprong (who was dealt to Washington last February but didn’t make his debut for the team until 2021), and the Capitals have taken advantage of some fresh talent this season — even if they do have the .Related:What We’ve Been Watching In An Extra-Weird NHL SeasonGAR per 82 from newcomers: 29.2 (17 percent of team total)Biggest moves: Recalled LW Kirill Kaprizov (12.9 GAR/82); traded for D Ian Cole (6.4) and C Nick Bjugstad (5.8)Playoff probability: 79 percentAs we mentioned last week, the Wild have been one of the most impressive breakout teams of the 2021 season so far. Only the Panthers and the Carolina Hurricanes have improved their postseason chances more since preseason than Minnesota, and it’s happened despite many of the team’s established stars (Ryan Suter, Zach Parise, Kevin Fiala, captain Jared Spurgeon) having various degrees of down years. Picking up the slack have been newcomers like Kirill Kaprizov, the 23-year-old Russian left wing who’s establishing himself as a , and to a lesser degree center Nick Bjugstad (acquired in September) and D-man Ian Cole (picked up in an with Colorado). Not all of Wild GM Bill Guerin’s moves have been beauties: Free-agent goalie Cam Talbot has already been unseated by second-year standout Kaapo Kahkonen, who $2.9 million less than his understudy. Center Nick Bonino, in an October trade, is pacing for -1.4 GAR per 82 games in one of the worst seasons of his career. But on balance, Minnesota’s newcomers have been among the most productive in the league, playing for one of the league’s most surprising contenders.Neil Paine is a senior writer for FiveThirtyEight.Filed underYou are now subscribed!Email AddressSign me up

The NHL’s trade deadline is in , and with it will come each team’s last big chance to meaningfully upgrade its roster on the path to the playoffs. But some of the most important moves of the 2021 season have already happened, with effects already evident on the ice and in the standings as we approach the halfway mark of the schedule. So which teams have gotten the most value from their recent arrivals? We looked at teams with at least a 40 percent chance to make the playoffs (according to using ) and found those whose newest additions have added the most in through Wednesday’s games.GAR per...

The Deals That Have Shaped The NHL Season (So Far)

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