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SF restaurants and bars brace for possible return to takeout only

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Editor's note, Dec. 4, 2020, 3:20 p.m.: Officials in five Bay Area counties and the city of Berkeley made the decision Friday to enact the stay-at-home order beginning Dec. 6. All of the interviews in this article took place prior to the announcement, and was written in speculation of when the order would occur.The Bay Area's restaurant and bar industry, like many, has been struggling over the past year in the pandemic, but Thursday's announcement of a potential stay-at-home order is forecasting more dark days ahead.California Gov. Gavin Newsom introduced the framework for a regional stay-at-home order, with regions of the state required to implement shutdown rules once intensive care unit capacity falls under 15%. With the new shutdown, restaurants will once again be required to close outdoor dining and offer only takeout; bars, meanwhile, will be forced to shutter under the order (although it is currently unclear whether that will include bars that have partnered with food vendors).To be clear, the move back to takeout only isn't happening (yet); but according to the state's projections, the Bay Area could potentially fall under California's stay-at-home order by mid-December, if the COVID-19 numbers continue to increase. As of Thursday night, the California Department of Public Health that the available intensive care unit capacity in the Bay Area region is at 25.4%. This percentage, however, is not yet taking into account that we most likely .Since the start of outdoor dining just a few months ago, restaurants and bars have barely squeaked by. When asked how outdoor dining and seating have helped through the pandemic, Laurie Thomas, restaurateur and executive director of the Golden Gate Restaurant Association, called it "critical.""We wouldn't be open if we couldn't do it — my two restaurants and a lot of people wouldn't be either," Thomas told SFGATE. "It doesn't make you money, it just lets you get in the situation where you've got a chance to break even. And that's why this next shelter-in-place order, if and when it comes into play for our Bay Area county region, will be devastating."For the restaurant industry specifically, the prospect of being shut down in December is especially rough. Thomas said that the month typically is a boon for restaurants as people go out for dinner during the holidays, but that even without the expected revenue of corporate parties, for instance, December was expected to increase business."This degree of uncertainty is incredibly difficult for everybody who's going to be affected by this," Thomas said. "It's not going to affect our friends in the software world, other than they won't be able to go out to eat. So it'll inconvenience people that are wanting to make reservations and go out, but it's not going to be devastating like it will be for our industry, where people will lose their paycheck in an end-of-the-year, holiday situation where their families and their kids are counting on them to feed them. Normally, this is a period where people bank some money and have the money to buy presents for their kids and put food on the table and pay the rent on January 2. There's a huge degree of stress in our industry right now, and as owners we're used to providing for employees, they're like our family."For bars, however, it's a slightly different story. Ben Bleiman, founder of the San Francisco Bar Owner Alliance, said that typically the December month can be slow for bars, but a shutdown of the industry would wreak havoc on an already hurting group."I think we've been hit really hard," Bleiman said. "I think our industry is absolutely devastated, like many others. The outdoor [seating] has saved quite a few bars from abject destruction and if we have to shut down, that is going to be really, really bad.Bleiman estimated that outdoor dining and seating was "hugely impactful" for 90% of bars in San Francisco. "They're not making money, they're losing money — but they're losing money more slowly because they can do outdoor dining," he said. To-go sales for bars, however, will barely make a dent in what bars need to cover costs, such as rent."The to-go sales is nothing, it doesn't help. It barely helps at all," Bleiman said. "Very, very few businesses were surviving or even coming close to making anything resembling a profit by doing to-go only. In fact, I think it was actually probably better off for most bars to not even offer that, most of them. A couple on the margins have had [to-go] dialed in, but for most, it made no sense. So the to-go business is not a comparative alternative to outdoor dining; the outdoor dining was what was saving many of them."Chris Cohen, a partner at San Francisco bar Old Devil Moon, tried to look at the "silver lining" of the potential shutdown happening during bars' traditional slow period of December, but so far he's already noticed that most have been struggling for the past month due to the colder weather. Cohen said he and his two bar partners have all been working "with no personal income" for most of the year, and that while their bar did to-go cocktails out of necessity, it just wasn't helpful in the long run."At Old Devil Moon, we were literally one of the first in the city to start doing batch cocktails to-go when that was first announced as being allowed," Cohen said. "We made that pivot instantly, because we knew that there was just no other option. But what I'll say is that the to-go business is not really a good one. It's not sustainable for normal bars and restaurants. ... It's something that for us, in the early stages of COVID, helped us meet our most bottom line expenses, but being able to do outdoor dining was huge. We were hitting maybe a third of what we would normally have been, in terms of money."Doug Dalton, owner of the Future Bars Group, agreed that to-go hasn't been very helpful for business. Its roster of bars, which include Bourbon and Branch and Zombie Village, has largely remained shuttered through the pandemic, with just Devil's Acre and Lark reopening with parklets, with their spirits stores, Cask, selling bottles for pickup."To-go is not even feasible for us, other than Cask," Dalton said. "Cask is doing well for to-go, but for the bars themselves, we didn't find it feasible to have a to-go offering. If the parklets were to be shut down, that would shut down [our] bars."Most PopularAs the shutdown looms and its timing and span uncertain, Thomas said that it's possible that many restaurants are likely to consider the possibility of skipping out on takeout and instead choosing to "hibernate" and temporarily close to save on costs."The thing Gavin [Newsom] said today that is consistent with what I'm concerned about, is these three-week shutdowns, that could get extended," Thomas said. "There's no guarantee it's three weeks. This is not our first rodeo here; we know what happens. So most people will probably make decisions if we do, god forbid, go into this 15% category mid-December, then people like myself and other restaurateurs will probably hibernate for December, because you won't have a choice, and then probably into January, as well."Thomas has advocated for all sorts of business relief, including more forgivable Paycheck Protection Program loans and grant-based relief, but most of the restaurateurs and bar owners SFGATE has spoken to have expressed frustration that little to no further relief from the government seems forthcoming."We're working our asses off for free, just to meet the most low level sort of income we need to pay the bills," Cohen said. "While I certainly am not opposed to measures like the one Newsom is taking — I think these things are necessary — it's frustrating to, as an entire industry, feel like you're being left behind. For instance, property taxes are still due in December and they're giving people a tiny break of a thousand dollars, which will have to get paid later anyway. Stuff like that is actually going to put people out of business, so there's a lot more that could be done, at the state level."There has also been plenty of frustration leveled at those who haven't properly adhered to mask wearing. John Konstin, Jr., co-owner of John's Grill, is trying to remain positive, but admitted there are some frustrations with those flouting mask rules."There's no easy way to look at this or put it, you know," Konstin said. "But we did it once, and it looks like here we go again. We just have to keep staying optimistic and positive, and keep looking at things in an extremely entrepreneurial mindset where, once we do close, we've got to start planning on how we're going to reopen and how that's going to look. It's tiring, the whole start and stop, but if the world, or California, just wore a mask or took this more seriously, then we would just would not have to deal with this anymore — but unfortunately that's not the case."It seems like a matter of when, not if, the new shelter-in-place order will be enacted in the Bay Area, and the next steps for restaurants and bars have become a personal one, balancing on each individual business' precarious position. Konstin, for his part, is working to ensure that John's Grill survives."The fact that we're, eight months later, doing it all over again is frustrating," Konstin said. "And it has nothing to do with politicians, it has nothing to do with their plans or what they're enacting. It has to do with us as people, as a community, that we need to all take this seriously. And then it is a serious threat to our economy, to our health, to our everything. It's been crazy, but in terms of [us], John's Grill has been through two pandemics in one lifetime. We've been around since 1908. And so we've made it through the Spanish flu, and we have plans to persevere and pivot, and make it through COVID-19."SFGATE news editor Amy Graff and reporter Eric Ting contributed to this report.More Coronavirus NewsSign up for 'The Daily' newsletter for the latest on coronavirus&nbsp;.—&nbsp;—&nbsp;—&nbsp;—&nbsp;—&nbsp;Top Picks In ShoppingMost PopularTop shopping picks

Editor's note, Dec. 4, 2020, 3:20 p.m.: Officials in five Bay Area counties and the city of Berkeley made the decision Friday to enact the stay-at-home order beginning Dec. 6. All of the interviews in this article took place prior to the announcement, and was written in speculation of when the order would occur.The Bay Area's restaurant and bar industry, like many, has been struggling over the past year in the pandemic, but Thursday's announcement of a potential stay-at-home order is forecasting more dark days ahead.California Gov. Gavin Newsom introduced the framework for a regional...

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SF restaurants and bars brace for possible return to takeout only

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