Name: If Donald Trump drags the U.S. economy down, Canada’s economy is going along for the ride
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If Donald Trump drags the U.S. economy down, Canada’s economy is going along for the ride

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close This copy is for your personal non-commercial use only. To orderpresentation-ready copies of Toronto Star content for distributionto colleagues, clients or customers, or inquire aboutpermissions/licensing, please go to: From economy to psychology, from environment to diplomacy, what happens in the U.S. election will have a profound impact on Canada. Northern Exposure is a series of stories looking at what’s at stake for us as America decides its future.WASHINGTON—“Over the years I have learned,” a reader in British Columbia wrote to me this week, “that when the U.S. coughs, Canada gets a very bad cold, perhaps the flu.” The saying has a particular resonance during a pandemic, but in few areas is the analogy more apt than the economy.Roughly a fifth of Canada’s gross national product to the U.S., which accounts for about 75 per cent of Canada’s foreign trade. The U.S. is also Canada’s largest source of foreign investment. As of 2011, U.S. subsidiaries in Canada employed more than 546,000 people.“Our proximity to the U.S. is a huge source of our prosperity. We live next to such a massive market that is willing to do business with us, right?” said Peter Loewen of the University of Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy. “People shouldn’t underestimate that. These levels of wealth are all recent, and they come from our capacity to trade.”And when it comes to trade, the presidency of induced some coughing fits among Canadians — or at least some gagging sounds — when he imposed import tariffs and forced the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement by threatening to tear it up. It’s been a turbulent time.Considering the upcoming election, veteran trade lawyer Daniel Ujczo of Dickinson Wright in Ohio would expect that volatility to change if the administration did. “I mean, it wouldn’t be trade policy by tweet,” he said in a recent phone interview. “This relationship revolves around the relationship between the leaders, whether we like it or not,” Ujczo said. If Trump is re-elected and Trudeau remains prime minister, he said, “I think we’ll see pretty much more of the same — and there will need to be a focus on a more constructive relationship between those two.” If Trump’s Democratic opponent, Joe Biden, were to be elected, however, Ujczo foresees a stronger relationship, between both the leaders and their cabinet-level officials. He’s not the only one who thinks so. Kathryn Friedman, an expert on North American relations at the University at Buffalo, points out that when Biden was the U.S. vice-president, his last official visit was to Ottawa, where he praised Canada as an ally and a friend; by contrast, Trump and his administration often portray Canada as a national security threat and a predatory trader. Under a Biden administration, Friedman said, “I do think that Canada would be elevated back to its rightful place as one of our closest allies.”But that relationship, paradoxically, might not make much difference to actual trade policy. The experts I’ve spoken with more or less agree that despite its adversarial and sometimes tortured negotiation, the new USMCA trade deal is a good update on the old NAFTA. No prominent American politicians — and few Canadians — are itching to change it. Ujczo says he’d expect a less “disruptive” second term from Trump on continental trade, since he’s already laid the groundwork for a new playing field in his first term. But more than that, he said, the Democrats’ trade policy ideas, especially among the congressional delegation, aren’t substantially different from Trump’s protectionist impulses. “Canadians always think that Democrats are more favourable because they’re aligned on socio-cultural ideology, but Democrats have really not been great for Canada on trade issues,” he said. “I do think we would see more predictability from the White House, but I anticipate less predictability from Congress.”A Biden administration, meanwhile, would , a project to which Canada’s are deeply committed. Biden would also bring the United States back into the “within the first week or so” of his administration, according to Chris Sands, who leads the Canada Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington. “What does that mean for Canada, which is already a member? Well, good news, bad news,” said Sands. “Suddenly you’ve got another competitor in that family and you lose one of the little advantages you had over the U.S.”Aside from direct trade, the Canadian economy generally feels the strength or weakness of the American economy through investment, jobs at American corporations and tourism, among other things. That means Canada will be watching its neighbour’s recovery from the pandemic-induced recession very closely. In managing the virus itself, probably a precondition of a full recovery, Trump has graded his response this year an “A+” while pinning virtually all hope for a quick economic recovery on the quick development of a vaccine. Biden has announced a more aggressive response to the spread of the virus, in line with what many epidemiologists have recommended, which may include locking down some areas of the country again or implementing national rules on masks. Biden has also staked part of his economic platform on stimulus, sometimes invoking Franklin Roosevelt’s Great Depression-era New Deal as a parallel.Polls show many American voters see the economy, and the prospects for dealing with it, as an area of strength for Trump. By contrast, issued a statement this week supporting Biden, saying his economic policies “will result in economic growth that is faster, more robust, and more equitable.” That said, predicting the trajectory of the American economy under any president is a very difficult job. What isn’t difficult to see is that whatever direction it goes, it is likely to take Canada’s economy at least some of the way with it. Read more about: JOIN THE CONVERSATION Q:How closely are you following the election south of the border? Share your thoughts.Anyone can read Conversations, but to contribute, you should be registered Torstar account holder. If you do not yet have a Torstar account, you can create one now (it is free)Sign InRegisterConversations are opinions of our readers and are subject to the . The Star does not endorse these opinions.Copyright owned or licensed by Toronto Star Newspapers Limited. Allrights reserved. Republication or distribution of this content isexpressly prohibited without the prior written consent of TorontoStar Newspapers Limited and/or its licensors. To order copies ofToronto Star articles, please go to:

close This copy is for your personal non-commercial use only. To orderpresentation-ready copies of Toronto Star content for distributionto colleagues, clients or customers, or inquire aboutpermissions/licensing, please go to: From economy to psychology, from environment to diplomacy, what happens in the U.S. election will have a profound impact on Canada. Northern Exposure is a series of stories looking at what’s at stake for us as America decides its future.WASHINGTON—“Over the years I have learned,” a reader in British Columbia wrote to me this week, “that when the U.S. coughs, Canada...

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If Donald Trump drags the U.S. economy down, Canada’s economy is going along for the ride

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