Name: By the Numbers: Identifying the NHL’s best puck-moving defensemen
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By the Numbers: Identifying the NHL’s best puck-moving defensemen

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Jul 9, 2020Fun fact: 42 percent of all 5-on-5 goals occur within five seconds of the attacking team entering the offensive zone. That was a key takeaway when Hockey-Graphs contributorWhat does that tell us? It’s more evidence that transitional play — how swiftly teams switch from defense to offense and vice versa — is crucial in a contemporary that’s trending toward speed and skill. Increasingly, you notice that clubs lacking defensemen who can proficiently advance play up the ice struggle to get out of their own zone.Naturally, this makes us wonder — who are the league’s best puck-moving defensemen?Analyzing data that covers defensive exits can help us answer that. Clubs around the league access this data through private companies like Sportlogiq — we’ll instead use dataset as that’s what is publicly available.For those who aren’t familiar, Sznajder independently tracks transition data (referred to as microstats) such as defensive zone exits, offensive zone entries and much more. He’s tracked thousands of games going back more than five years when he went through .A crucial caveat to keep in mind, however, is that while Sznajder has a solid sample for every team, he hasn’t tracked every game.&nbsp;The good news is that analysis of this dataset has revealed that it . In other words, the numbers stabilize and reflect a defenseman’s true puck-moving talent level after about 20 games worth of data.Furthermore, I’ll be including results from the past three years (going back to the 2016-17 season) to expand our sample size. This left many defensemen with at least 1,000 5-on-5 minutes tracked — or the equivalent of about 55-65 games.The only situations where the sample size could be prohibitive is when the margins are really slim. You won’t see any wild results, but it’s possible that the defenseman ranked 13th best, for example, is slightly higher or lower if we had stats for every game. Thus, the goal of this analysis isn’t to definitively rank these puck movers in a particular order but to simply highlight which ones are posting elite numbers in the data available to us.A zone exit is calculated when a player moves the puck out of the defensive zone.It doesn’t matter whether this is a clearance off the glass, skating it out or passing to a teammate, as long as the puck leaves the zone it counts as a successful exit (unless it’s called for icing). When a defenseman has eight zone exits in a game, for example, it means they got the puck out of the defensive end on eight occasions.The first metric we use for this is called zone exit efficiency (Exit %).If a defenseman tries to get the puck out 10 times in a game and is successful on eight of those attempts, their zone exit efficiency would be 80 percent. A player who has a low zone exit percentage keeps the team hemmed in the defensive end because they commit turnovers or can’t get the puck out on clearances consistently enough.While this is useful in measuring puck management, it doesn’t tell us how valuable the successful exits are. It treats a glass and out clearance the same as a carry out of the zone when we know that the latter is usually more helpful. To account for this, we also want to categorize whether the team retained possession on the exit or not.Possession exits are situations where a player moves the puck out of the zone while the team keeps control of the puck. This counts carry-outs and passes while excluding dump outs where the team has to relinquish puck control.Our second metric, therefore, is possession exit efficiency (Possession Exit %).This means that if a defenseman had eight successful exits — three of which were with possession — out of 10 attempts, the player would have a possession exit efficiency of 30 percent and a general exit efficiency of 80 percent. In this case, we can imagine they might have had, say, three carry-outs, five dump outs and two turnovers on their 10 attempts to move the puck out.In almost all cases, possession exits are far more valuable to evaluate puck-moving ability than general exit percentage.With this in mind, here’s the criteria I used to find the cream of the crop puck movers.I looked for defensemen in the 90th percentile or higher in possession exit efficiency, in the 80th percentile or higher in how often they created them per 60 minutes and then to ensure we didn’t have players who turn the puck over too often, I ensured they were at least league average or better at general exit efficiency.Exits are the most important part of being a good puck mover, but because we’re looking for the elite ones, I included a bonus requirement of needing to be among the league’s top quarter of defensemen in zone entries with possession per 60 minutes.Here’s the list of 10 blueliners that fit these requirements.Before we dive into the individual numbers keep in mind there were defensemen that just narrowly missed joining this group. It’s possible to not be in this cohort and still be an elite puck-mover (we’ll go over which defensemen just missed out later). Also, because of the time-on-ice requirements, the high-profile rookies (, , , etc) just missed out from the cohort and we’ll analyze them in a separate section as well.Without further ado, let’s break down the numbers for this group of 10.50th percentile (average): 33.7 percentPossession Exit %Player&nbsp;&nbsp;Possession Exit %&nbsp;&nbsp;Starting at the top, you have defenseman leading the charge with a possession exit efficiency just north of 50 percent. The 22-year-old is incredibly smooth and cerebral in both his skating and puckhandling ability. Girard isn’t a high-end point producer but he and Makar are integral to getting the puck into the hands of guys like and in the neutral zone to power Colorado’s high-octane transition offense.It may be surprising for some out of market fans to see Girard rank this impressively, but he’s unquestionably an elite transporter — .might not get as much attention as flashy young defensemen like Hughes and Makar, but he’s every bit as valuable when you couple his excellent puck-moving profile with the stout defensive play he offers. He’s the perfect complement to carry the transition load for . And with questionable to return as a UFA, McAvoy might finally get the power-play time to boost his point totals. If that happens, he’ll be a perennial contender for the Norris.Perhaps the biggest surprise on this list is defenseman . The 2015 second-round pick doesn’t play against top competition, but if you look under the hood he’s been a strong play driver according to his shot and expected goal metrics over the last two years. Expect him to assume a greater role moving forward with set for unrestricted free agency.’s presence, meanwhile, is a reminder that being skilled in transition is just one responsibility for defensemen. The back has battled defensive inconsistency and puck management issues over the past little while and has found himself in and out of the doghouse. Even his underlying numbers have taken a hit over the last two seasons. This isn’t an indictment on Gostisbehere — he can clearly be much better than he’s shown recently — but he seems to be battling a lack of confidence. This is a reminder that a) he’s still an elite puck mover and b) you need to do more than just excel in transition to be an upper-echelon defenseman.A similar sentiment can be expressed with . He’s such a gifted skater and does well to get play going in the right direction, but he’s had a decisively negative impact on the ’ ability to control shot attempts and scoring chances.Aside from that, it shouldn’t come as a surprise to see names like Erik Karlsson, , , and .50th percentile (average): 9.6 per 60 minutesPossession Exits Per 60 MinutesPlayer&nbsp;&nbsp;Possession exits/60&nbsp;&nbsp;From a volume perspective, Karlsson has been the king of controlled breakouts over the past three seasons. One can’t help but notice the downward trend in his results, however. Karlsson led all defensemen in possession exits per hour last year and was third in 2017-18, but he slipped to 30th in Sznajder’s tracking this year. More concerningly, his possession exit efficiency fell quite drastically, ranking in just the 42nd percentile.Viz courtesy CJ TurtoroKarlsson’s offensive zone entry numbers remain dominant, but you can see that his efficiency on breakouts wasn’t quite as prolific. This suggests that while he continued to take on a massive role in facilitating San Jose’s transition play, he relied on quite a few more dump outs than he did in years past. I’m still inclined to believe Karlsson’s an excellent puck mover because the sample of minutes tracked in 2019-20 isn’t large enough to make conclusions with certainty, but it’s still interesting to note that he wasn’t a cut above everyone else like he has been over the years.Elsewhere, Girard and McAvoy grade very highly in this category again.Werenski lags in this group a little bit, but part of the reason for that is because he’s shared nearly 3,000 5-on-5 minutes with over the last three seasons. Jones is a top-notch puck mover in his own right and that means Werenski doesn’t have to take on a massive share of the exits from a volume perspective.50th percentile (average): 73.6 percentExit %Player&nbsp;&nbsp;Exit %&nbsp;&nbsp;Percentile rank&nbsp;&nbsp;I knew we’d be filtering out to only include league average or better puck managers, but I was still pleasantly surprised to see how well some of these defensemen are able to manage risk. It’s remarkable to me, for example, that Roman Josi can drive Nashville’s offence so aggressively and still be in the 91st percentile in cutting down defensive turnovers and ensuring the puck gets out of the zone period.Obviously, you’ll still see many of these top puck movers make egregious mistakes when you watch them play, but that’s largely because they have the puck on their stick so often. Someone like Karlsson has been objectively good at managing the puck once you account for the transition workload he’s handling.In this category, it’s Slavin that leaps off the page. I find him similar to McAvoy in that the fact that he doesn’t score a ton of points means that he can fly under the radar a little bit when people discuss who some of the league’s top defensemen are.On the opposite side of the spectrum, you have Orlov who does tend to make the odd mistake. The 28-year-old Russian has been a pillar on Washington’s middle pair for years and while his two-way impact isn’t as prodigious as his puck-moving impact, he’s a high-quality second pair defenseman.50th percentile (average): 1.82 per 60 minutesWhile backs are active in leading exits, it makes intuitive sense that they’re far less active than forwards in engineering controlled entries into the offensive zone.In examining the zone entry results, it becomes quickly apparent that Josi is levels ahead of every one of his peers in this department.Offensive Zone Entries Per 60 MinutesPlayer&nbsp;&nbsp;Poss. Entries/60▼Upon first glance, I was convinced there was a tabulation issue — how could Josi create double the possession entries than many of his elite peers?I’m sure the margins are much closer in a larger sample, but even the private data reveals that Josi is in a class of his own when it comes to creating offence in transition. Sportlogiq’s numbers show that . In fact, their data also says that he’s created more end-to-end rushes this year than .There aren't many players, let alone defensemen, who can give Connor McDavid a run for his money when it comes to skating the puck through the neutral zone. Then again, there aren't many defensemen like Roman Josi. Two great puck movers face-off tonight in Nashville.— The Point (@ThePointHockey)Josi’s obviously in a unique situation with the where they’ve completely taken off his leash and given him full autonomy to roam as he pleases. One would imagine part of that is because the Predators don’t have many dynamic game-breakers in their forward group.Nevertheless, I think once you factor in just how much more dominant he’s been in the entries department relative to this cohort on top of his already stellar zone exit numbers, Josi probably has the strongest case as the NHL’s best puck mover.All told, Josi, Karlsson, Slavin, Girard and McAvoy are the five defensemen among this top-10 that finished in the 90th percentile or higher in three of the four metrics we covered.The rookie class of defensemen we’ve seen this year is among the best in NHL history.Makar, Hughes and Fox will be the household names. It would have been interesting to include them in the analysis above, but each one was just short of the 20 game mark in sample size. This means that while their numbers will still be useful and reflective of their talent, there’s not enough information to know exactly how they stack up among the game’s best puck movers yet.Obviously, the data is still interesting so I figured I’d share the results in a separate section and man, are they ever impressive. For reference, I’ve included in brackets where they’d rank in each category league-wide.Top Rookie Puck MoversPlayer&nbsp;&nbsp;Possession Exit %&nbsp;&nbsp;Poss. Exits/60&nbsp;&nbsp;Exit %&nbsp;&nbsp;Poss. Entries/60&nbsp;&nbsp;All three of these rookie phenoms have a case for being top-10 puck movers this season.Hughes grades out as the NHL’s leader in both general and possession exit efficiency and finds himself behind only Karlsson and Girard for possession exit volume. His emergence is a huge reason why .Fox might not have the elite counting stats that Hughes and Makar do (he still managed 42 points in 70 games), but he’s been just as valuable in transition. In any other year, he’d be a prime Calder candidate.Last, but certainly not least we find Makar. His zone exit numbers are slightly lower relative to the first two, but he’s been a lot more aggressive rushing the puck through the neutral zone — manufacturing almost double the possession entries per hour in our limited sample.All this shouldn’t discount from what rookie has accomplished either. The 23-year-old right-shot defenseman isn’t as dynamic as his peers, but plays an extremely sturdy two-way game and was skilled at advancing play up the ice in his own right.Viz via CJ TurtoroAs I mentioned earlier in the piece, with the margins being so fine at the top, it’s inevitable that some elite puck-movers would be underrated and just miss the cut because of our sample size. Remember, our goal in this piece was to identify the league’s best transition defensemen, not to definitively rank them in a top-10. In fact, I’m sure that in a bigger sample, some of the names in the honourable mentions would bump other players out of the main cohort of 10 we analyzed.Because of that, it’s crucial to share the results and provide some context for other excellent backs.Other Excellent Puck MoversPlayer&nbsp;&nbsp;Possession Exit %&nbsp;&nbsp;Poss. Exits/60&nbsp;&nbsp;Other notes&nbsp;&nbsp;If you’d like access to microstats and would like to support Corey Sznajder’s work, you can donate to his(Top photo: Jeff Vinnick / NHLI via Getty Images)

Jul 9, 2020Fun fact: 42 percent of all 5-on-5 goals occur within five seconds of the attacking team entering the offensive zone. That was a key takeaway when Hockey-Graphs contributorWhat does that tell us? It’s more evidence that transitional play — how swiftly teams switch from defense to offense and vice versa — is crucial in a contemporary that’s trending toward speed and skill. Increasingly, you notice that clubs lacking defensemen who can proficiently advance play up the ice struggle to get out of their own zone.Naturally, this makes us wonder — who are the league’s best puck-moving...

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By the Numbers: Identifying the NHL’s best puck-moving defensemen

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