Name: NJ models don't predict surge in coronavirus cases from Stage 2 reopening, protests
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NJ models don't predict surge in coronavirus cases from Stage 2 reopening, protests

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NorthJersey.comView CommentsRecent New Jersey models&nbsp;do not predict a spike in new coronavirus cases, hospitalizations or ventilator use in the near term as a result of the recent Black Lives Matter protests or the state's recent Stage 2 reopening measures, according to predictions obtained by NorthJersey.com and the USA TODAY Network New Jersey.But longer-term predictions show the importance that social distancing and wearing a mask in public can still have on the public's health and hospital system: New Jersey analysts anticipate the state can prevent thousands of people from being hospitalized with the coronavirus&nbsp;if residents keep up these practices through the end of July, rather than ending such practices in the beginning of July.&nbsp;The governor's office shared a 20-day prediction based on prior data that showed daily new numbers of cases and hospitalizations decreasing each day through July 7. The model also included a number for "active infections," or the number of residents who have not yet recovered or died, but may be hospitalized. As of June 19, that number was 4,720 people. The model predicts close to 2,174 people will have active cases of COVID-19 by July 7.&nbsp;Gov. Phil Murphy and public health officials have not previously shared an active case number, which is based&nbsp;on complex modeling calculations, and hasn't shared with the . and allows organized sports, larger outdoor gatherings and swimming pools to open, joining restaurants, nonessential retail and day care, among others, it had been&nbsp;unclear what the state assumed would happen to hospitals and infection rates as more people came into contact with one another. These relaxed rules also coincided with thousands of across the state to protest police brutality and rally behind the Black Lives Matter movement.&nbsp;In fact, the state's three-week prediction shows a steady decline in all categories: active infections, new cases, hospitalizations, ICU beds used by COVID-19 patients and ventilator usage by COVID-19 patients. For instance, the model anticipates New Jersey's coronavirus hospital population will decrease from 1,177 in mid-June to 542 by&nbsp;the first week of July.&nbsp;Story continues below chart:New Jersey epidemiologists and data scientists run multiple scenarios each day to predict what can happen in the short- and long-term that vary based on the assumptions, such as the percentage of the population that is&nbsp;social distancing, the&nbsp;rate of transmission, and how many people a positive case will infect, as well as data already recorded, such as&nbsp;the number&nbsp;of people in the hospital.&nbsp;.&nbsp; validate an analysis from the nonprofit Covid Act Now, that found , along with New York and Michigan.&nbsp;MORE ON CORONAVIRUS:NJ REOPENING:State officials also shared two long-term scenarios with the USA TODAY Network&nbsp;New Jersey showing what the state&nbsp;could see in terms of coronavirus cases over the next 400 days, depending on social behavior. The further out into the future that scientists try to predict, the more uncertainty there is and the possibility for error increases.&nbsp;One model shows a strong possible second wave, while the other shows a mild second wave popping up following reduction in infections through the late summer. The difference? The first model is based on assumptions that strong social distancing ends by July 1, while the second shows people wearing masks and practicing strong distancing until July 31.&nbsp;That one extra month of&nbsp;social distancing could significantly reduce the number people who end up going to the hospital.&nbsp;The worst-case scenario predicts a dip in COVID-19 patients in hospitals until July 1, andhospitalizations, ICU usage and ventilator use leveling&nbsp;off until early October, when serious cases begin to increase again, around flu season. The model shows a&nbsp;steady and steepening number of people in the hospital, with a potential peak in April 2021 —&nbsp;with around 4,600 people in the hospital, more than 1,100 in intensive care, and 1,000 patients on ventilators.&nbsp;The second, more mild scenario anticipates a similar curve with a similar time frame, but a much smaller peak in April 2021, with around 700 people in the hospital, and fewer&nbsp;than 200 people in the ICU and fewer&nbsp;than 160 patients on ventilators.&nbsp;View the two long-term model scenarios here:Ashley Balcerzak is a reporter in the New Jersey Statehouse.&nbsp;For unlimited access to her work covering&nbsp;New Jersey’s legislature and political power structure,&nbsp;.Email:&nbsp;&nbsp;Twitter:&nbsp;&nbsp;View Comments

NorthJersey.comView CommentsRecent New Jersey models&nbsp;do not predict a spike in new coronavirus cases, hospitalizations or ventilator use in the near term as a result of the recent Black Lives Matter protests or the state's recent Stage 2 reopening measures, according to predictions obtained by NorthJersey.com and the USA TODAY Network New Jersey.But longer-term predictions show the importance that social distancing and wearing a mask in public can still have on the public's health and hospital system: New Jersey analysts anticipate the state can prevent thousands of people from being...

NJ models don't predict surge in coronavirus cases from Stage 2 reopening, protests

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