Name: Kerry Dominates Among Democratic Candidates, Leads Bush in General Election
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Kerry Dominates Among Democratic Candidates, Leads Bush in General Election

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GALLUP NEWS SERVICEPRINCETON, NJ -- Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry has moved to adominant position as the first choice of rank-and-file Democratsacross the country as their party's nominee for president,receiving 49% support, compared with 14% for former Vermont Gov.Howard Dean, and 13% for North Carolina Sen. John Edwards. Kerrytops President George W. Bush by 53% to 46% nationwide when likelyvoters are asked for whom they would vote if the general electioncame down to a contest between Bush and Kerry. At the same time,President Bush's job approval rating has fallen to the lowest pointof his administration, at 49%.Kerry's Support Among National DemocratsSurgesThe Jan. 30-Feb. 1 CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll reflects aremarkable surge of support for Kerry among Democrats.Democratic Challenger Trial HeatAmong Registered DemocratsGallup last measured Democrats' preferences for their party'snominee three weeks ago, prior to the Iowa caucuses and NewHampshire primary. The newest results show a dramatic shift.&nbsp;Democrats' Preferences ShiftJohn Kerry40 point increase (comparing Jan. 9-11, 2004 toJan. 30-Feb. 1, 2004 polls)John Edwards6 point increaseHoward Dean12 point dropWesley Clark11 point dropJoe Lieberman4 point dropThis extraordinary jump in Kerry's support is obviously afunction of his victories in the Iowa caucuses and the NewHampshire primary, just as the drops in Dean's, Clark's, andLieberman's support are a result of their relatively poor showingsin Iowa and New Hampshire.Kerry's level of support at this stage in the primary campaignappears to be particularly propitious for the Massachusettssenator. No Democratic candidate in the history of Gallup's primarypolling has ever received as high as 49% of the trial heat supportamong Democrats and not gone on to win the nomination. The closestto Kerry's current margin for a non-winner are Estes Kefauver in1942 (who at one point had 45% of the Democratic vote, but went onto lose the nomination to Adlai Stevenson) and Edmund Muskie andHubert Humphrey, both of whom in 1972 had 35% of the Democraticvote, but eventually lost to George McGovern. Thus, based onhistory alone, the probability of Kerry moving on to capture theDemocratic nomination this year would appear to be high.Edwards is often mentioned as the one candidate who may stand inthe way of Kerry's drive for the nomination, but the North Carolinasenator receives only 13% of the support of registered Democratsnationwide, still one point behind erstwhile front-runner Dean.Edwards' hopes of moving these national numbers up depend on a verystrong showing in today's South Carolina primary, coupled withother signs of Kerry weakness.The poll is not at all auspicious for either Connecticut Sen.Joe Lieberman (who receives just 5% of the Democrats' support) orretired Gen. Wesley Clark, who receives only 9%. Both of thesecandidates, at other points in their respective campaigns, havereceived over 20% support.There are some scenarios by which Kerry might come out oftoday's voting in a weakened position. For example, if Edwardsscores a large win in his native South Carolina, if Clark wins inOklahoma, and/or if Kerry's victory margins in the other fivestates are defined by the media as being smaller than expected. Butbased on a review of polls conducted by various media and otherstate polling organizations in the seven states holding caucusesand primaries today, it appears unlikely that all of thesescenarios will occur.National Images of the DemocraticCandidatesThe vast amount of publicity afforded Kerry since hiscome-from-behind victory in Iowa has had a positive effect on hisname identification nationally. When Gallup first measured Kerryback in February 1999, 61% of Americans said they didn't knowenough about him to have an opinion either way. As recently as lastNovember, 45% did not have an opinion. That has all changed now. Inthe weekend poll, 84% of Americans know enough about Kerry to havean opinion, and those opinions are much more positive thannegative.&nbsp;NAME RECOGNITION AND IMAGEFOR DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATESName Recognition,% who know enough about candidate to have an opinionNet Image,% favorable minus % unfavorable%%John KerryAll Adult Americans8438Democrats8975Republicans81-5John EdwardsAll Adult Americans7533Democrats7961Republicans711Wesley ClarkAll Adult Americans7416Democrats7543Republicans75-13Howard DeanAll Adult Americans840Democrats8737Republicans82-42Joe LiebermanAll Adult Americans8010Democrats8115Republicans802With all of this apparent momentum, it is not surprising to findthat Kerry does well when pitted against Bush in a hypotheticalgeneral election trial race. Kerry, in fact, does better than anyof the other Democratic challengers.Bush vs. Democratic ChallengersAmong Likely VotersJan. 29-Feb. 1, 2004Bush's Image at Low Point on ManyDimensionsKerry's seven-point lead over Bush is due in part to thegenerally weakened position of Bush in the eyes of the Americanpublic at this time.George W. Bush's Job ApprovalRating,2001-2004President Bush's Approval Rating onIssuesJan. 29-Feb. 1, 2004The fact that Kerry is doing well and that Bush is not at thispoint in the campaign process is not totally unexpected. TheDemocratic primaries have been a major focus of media attentionover the past month, making this a situation analogous to whathappens after a party's convention in the summer, when that party'scandidate usually spikes in election trial-heat polls because mediaattention is overwhelmingly focused on one party and its message.Additionally, of course, much of the Democrats' focus in theircampaigning has been on criticizing Bush, his policies, and hisadministration, so some negative impact is a logical result.Survey MethodsThe results are based on interviews conducted Jan. 30-Feb. 1,2004 with 1,001 national adults aged 18 and older. For this sample,the maximum margin of error attributable to sampling is ±3percentage points. Margins of error for sample subgroups would beslightly higher.For results based on the sample of 469 Democrats and Democraticleaners, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5percentage points.For results based on the sample of 415 Democrats and Democraticleaners who are registered to vote, the maximum margin of samplingerror is ±5 percentage points.In addition to sampling error, question wording and practicaldifficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias intothe findings of public opinion polls.Mar 9, 2004The latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup survey of American voters finds Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry leading President George W. Bush among registered voters 50% to 45%, and among likely voters by 52% to 44%. When Ralph Nader is included in the hypothetical matchup, the consumer activist takes votes away from Kerry, but not from Bush. The poll also shows Bush’s job approval at 49%, tied for the lowest rating of his presidency.Feb 4, 2004The latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll analyzed the way Americans rated the characteristics, abilities, and issue positions of current Democratic front-runner John Kerry when pitted against Republican incumbent George W. Bush. At this early stage in the campaign, both candidates have relative strengths and weaknesses. Americans are slightly more likely to see Kerry’s political views, rather than Bush’s views, as acceptable. Neither candidate has a decided advantage on war issues, but Kerry appears to have an edge on the economy. In terms of personality characteristics, Americans tend to think of Kerry as a champion of the average American, while they view Bush as the stronger leader.Sep 9, 2022Despite reports of pandemic-era declines in test scores, parents of K-12 children remain just as satisfied with their children's quality of education as before.+1 202.715.3030

GALLUP NEWS SERVICEPRINCETON, NJ -- Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry has moved to adominant position as the first choice of rank-and-file Democratsacross the country as their party's nominee for president,receiving 49% support, compared with 14% for former Vermont Gov.Howard Dean, and 13% for North Carolina Sen. John Edwards. Kerrytops President George W. Bush by 53% to 46% nationwide when likelyvoters are asked for whom they would vote if the general electioncame down to a contest between Bush and Kerry. At the same time,President Bush's job approval rating has fallen to the lowest pointof...

Kerry Dominates Among Democratic Candidates, Leads Bush in General Election

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