Name: What will the COVID-19 pandemic look like in Oregon over the next month? Modeling shows 3 scenarios
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What will the COVID-19 pandemic look like in Oregon over the next month? Modeling shows 3 scenarios

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Breaking NewsResearchers say recent data appears to show transmission has increased since the state began gradual reopening nearly a month ago.9:41 PM PDT June 12, 2020PORTLAND, Ore. — As Oregon faces a surge in coronavirus cases, new modeling suggests there could be plenty of more days with at least 100 new cases, if not more.Researchers for the , based in Bellevue, Wash., say it’s still too early to determine the full scope of why cases have surged over the past few weeks, but recent data appears to show transmission has increased by at least 10 percentage points since gradual reopening in Oregon began on May 15.&nbsp;The concern over the spike in COVID-19 cases led Gov. Kate Brown, in consultation with state health officials, to pause all county reopening plans for at least a week, including Multnomah County’s Phase 1 application.RELATED:The IDM models, which the Oregon Health Authority uses for data analysis and planning purposes, were released on Friday. They project three different scenarios based on varying transmission rates. Here’s a breakdown of the three models:Most optimistic:&nbsp;Less optimistic:Most pessimistic:&nbsp;Credit: Institute for Disease ModelingModel projections for the next 4 weeks, assuming that after May 15th: 1) transmission increased by 10 percentage points (blue line), 2) transmission increased by 15 percentage points (red line), and 3) transmission increased by 15 percentage points, then an additional 10 percentage points on May 25th (green line). The lighter shaded areas correspond to 80% forecast intervals (i.e., 10th and 90th percentiles of the projection).Over the last six days, Oregon has reported its four highest daily totals of new COVID-19 cases during the pandemic, the most being when were reported on Thursday. This comes after the Oregon Health Authority reported a in cases for the week of June 1-7 compared to the week prior. There has been a total of 5,337 known coronavirus cases in Oregon during the pandemic, including 173 people who have died.RELATED:Like the IDM researchers, the OHA said it’s still too early to nail down what exactly has contributed to the increase of cases but has said several factors, from the state’s partial reopening to workplace outbreaks to increased testing and contact tracing, could be playing a role.RELATED:IDM said hospitalizations typically follow new infections by about 12 days. Under that reasoning, researchers expected the effects of reopening would potentially first be seen on May 27. That timeline goes into June when considering Clackamas and Washington counties, the two most populated that have reopened, entered Phase 1 on May 23 and June 1, respectively.IDM said it’s too early to assess the effects of recent protests for Black Lives Matter, which began in Oregon around May 28. The COVID-19 data available for modeling includes only a week after the mass demonstrations began.Prior to reopening, the measures Gov. Brown and the state took “dramatically reduced the burden of COVID-19 in Oregon,” according to researchers. They said there was a dramatic reduction in transmission by March 31 and the number of new daily cases declined through mid-May. But those restrictions led to a severe economic downfall that includes the for the state, and hundreds of thousands of Oregonians out of work, many of whom were unable to get unemployment benefits in a timely matter and some who are still waiting months into the pandemic.RELATED:In a press conference Friday, Brown expressed frustration with deciding to put the state’s reopening plan on hold but said "when it comes to the health and safety of Oregonians, the buck stops here."RELATED:RELATED:Paid AdvertisementNotifications can be turned off anytime in the browser settings.No ThanksAllow

Breaking NewsResearchers say recent data appears to show transmission has increased since the state began gradual reopening nearly a month ago.9:41 PM PDT June 12, 2020PORTLAND, Ore. — As Oregon faces a surge in coronavirus cases, new modeling suggests there could be plenty of more days with at least 100 new cases, if not more.Researchers for the , based in Bellevue, Wash., say it’s still too early to determine the full scope of why cases have surged over the past few weeks, but recent data appears to show transmission has increased by at least 10 percentage points since gradual reopening...

What will the COVID-19 pandemic look like in Oregon over the next month? Modeling shows 3 scenarios

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