Name: Opinion: Oregon’s rush to reopen leaves scientific caution behind
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Opinion: Oregon’s rush to reopen leaves scientific caution behind

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NEW!869sharesLinn Goldberg and Louis Speizer Goldberg, M.D., is a professor emeritus at Oregon Health and Science University and research scientist who has received national and international awards for his work in health promotion and disease prevention. He lives in Lake Oswego. Speizer received his doctorate of physiology at the University of Virginia. He has been working in the pharmaceutical and biotech industry for over 30 years and lives in Flemington, New Jersey.Even without a treatment or vaccine for the coronavirus, Oregon has already hit on a successful strategy for keeping the spread of COVID-19 at bay. Thanks in large part to the by Gov. Kate Brown at the end of March, Oregon has the in the country and the , according to national data.Along with the state has managed to keep a lid on how quickly the coronavirus spreads, showing the effectiveness of the state’s prevention efforts.Now, however, Oregon is relaxing restrictions meant to prevent transmission in 34 of 36 counties, including Marion County, which has the state’s highest infection rate. There may be critical problems with this approach. In giving the go-ahead, Gov. Brown said, there is “” Then why not institute a more measured, scientific approach; in several of the least infected counties and evaluating each strategy before taking such broad action?Opening most counties and vacation spots is equivalent to opening the entire state. While Oregon’s more populous, infected counties — Multnomah and Washington counties — are not open, they are adjacent to many less restricted counties. COVID-19 does not respect county boundaries and neither do Oregonians. Both can travel from higher disease prevalent counties to less restricted counties, visiting bars, restaurants, salons and barbershops. When families from other counties or states crowd Oregon’s vacation spots, coronavirus surely will spread.Oregon’s blanket approach will also make it more difficult to figure out the reasons for a spike in infections.When multiple restrictions are altered, there is no way to determine the reason for the outcome if the strategy fails. To understand the path forward, Oregon could first relax stay-at-home orders, allowing people to visit friends and family and frequent outdoor areas — all while keeping physical distance. If successful, other restrictions, such as closure of restaurants, bars and gyms, can be eased, while determining success by testing and tracking how quickly the virus is spreading.Coronavirus mainly spreads by respiratory droplets and its infectivity rate depends in part on exposure time. Newer evidence reveals results in coronavirus remaining in the air for up to 14 minutes. Six-feet separations at indoor bars and restaurants are insufficient during longer exposure times, which include waiting for a table, ordering, waiting for meals and dining. Business employees should be routinely tested for COVID-19, helping ensure patron safety.Extensive testing is critical. Oregon is 46th among states in per-capita testing, although its capacity has recently grown. who transmit disease. South Korea’s widespread testing and tracing strategies and resulted in just of the U.S. Despite the early success that Germany, South Korea and China showed in reducing disease, all are rethinking restriction reduction policies. We should learn from their experience and rethink Oregon’s strategy as well.There are political and economic pressures to relax some public health restrictions. By examining a few rural, low-coronavirus counties first, state officials could more safely evaluate reopening. If the rate of spread remains controlled, more counties could be added in a step-wise fashion to relax other restrictions. We must remember what is at stake: A predicts that relaxing lockdowns, even with social distancing, will cause one death for every 98 jobs created.Gov. Brown likened moves to loosen restrictions equivalent to . Using scientific methods ensures Oregon’s reopening safely proceeds, like measuring ice thickness before walking on it. Oregon has done well under the governor’s leadership. As we reopen, let’s ensure Oregonians will not die for jobs, haircuts, dining out or going to the gym.Share your opinionSubmit your essay of 500-700 words on a highly topical issue or a theme of particular relevance to the Pacific Northwest, Oregon and the Portland area to commentary@oregonian.com. Please include your email and phone number for verification.Note to readers: if you purchase something through one of our affiliate links we may earn a commission.

NEW!869sharesLinn Goldberg and Louis Speizer Goldberg, M.D., is a professor emeritus at Oregon Health and Science University and research scientist who has received national and international awards for his work in health promotion and disease prevention. He lives in Lake Oswego. Speizer received his doctorate of physiology at the University of Virginia. He has been working in the pharmaceutical and biotech industry for over 30 years and lives in Flemington, New Jersey.Even without a treatment or vaccine for the coronavirus, Oregon has already hit on a successful strategy for keeping the...

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Opinion: Oregon’s rush to reopen leaves scientific caution behind

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