Name: ASU publishes new COVID-19 data website, first updated model after DHS dust-up
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ASU publishes new COVID-19 data website, first updated model after DHS dust-up

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Arizona RepublicView CommentsArizona State University researchers&nbsp;published an updated version of their COVID-19&nbsp;modeling, the first update since the Arizona Department of Health Services sought to earlier this month.ASU also put out a new website that displays different graphs and visualizations of the COVID-19 spread in the state. offers a few measures that more clearly show trends in the data than those publicly posted by the Arizona Department of Health Services."The idea behind the&nbsp;website once again is to get data out there so people can look at it and they can follow trends," said Joshua LaBaer, executive director of ASU's Biodesign Institute.For instance, the site charts new cases compared to total cases over time, showing how the disease is progressing in Arizona. The site&nbsp;shows how each county fares and compares Arizona's progression to other states. Some states, including&nbsp;New York, Hawaii and Montana,&nbsp;show clear declines in new cases. Arizona does not.The data visualizations are automatically updated daily using publicly available data, LaBaer said.The model, meanwhile, was updated on May 7. It was , but has not yet been peer-reviewed.The university modeling working group, comprised of experts from ASU and the University of Arizona, briefed the Department of Health Services on the updated model Thursday, said Tim Lant, a mathematical epidemiologist at ASU and one of the model's authors.&nbsp;ASU had said it would regardless of the health department's decision.&nbsp;The state health department after public pressure, saying it would have an "ongoing partnership" with the university experts studying COVID-19 in Arizona.&nbsp;"We committed that we would put this up where everyone can see it,&nbsp;so that's what we did," Lant said.&nbsp;The paper that details the model is authored by&nbsp;Esma S. Gel, Megan Jehn,&nbsp;Lant, Anna R. Muldoon, Trisalyn Nelson and Heather M. Ross, all of ASU.The model doesn't seek to predict a certain number of cases or&nbsp;deaths on a certain day, Lant said. And the model changes as our understanding of the disease and our daily lives change, such as returning to activities outside the home."I know that everyone wants us to say what's going to happen and predict the future because that's part of this work, but that's really not what this is," Lant said. "It's a series of projections that show 'what if' analysis, under a variety of different assumptions."A few takeaways from the updated model:"I think (the model)&nbsp;helps us to understand where we are, so that we can think about where we want to go next," Lant said.&nbsp;"It gives&nbsp;us a more accurate picture of what we know about this disease and the disease dynamics and why we're seeing the data that we see here in Arizona, so we can think about, as we move forward, what are the risks in doing so, and what do we need to keep an eye on to know if we're doing it right." The model shows scenarios for what disease progression looks like if cases increase steadily going forward, and what mitigation&nbsp;could help to get this incline to slow down if this happens.Since May 7, when the paper was published on the model, businesses have started to reopen in Arizona. What that means for the disease progression won't show up in the data for several weeks.&nbsp;"So if we lean forward and try to do things that accept a&nbsp;certain amount of risk, we have to&nbsp;carefully keep an eye on our experience over the next month to make sure that we're not doing it too quickly," Lant said.&nbsp;Reach reporter Rachel Leingang by email&nbsp;at or by phone at 602-444-8157, or find her on and .Support local journalism. View Comments

Arizona RepublicView CommentsArizona State University researchers&nbsp;published an updated version of their COVID-19&nbsp;modeling, the first update since the Arizona Department of Health Services sought to earlier this month.ASU also put out a new website that displays different graphs and visualizations of the COVID-19 spread in the state. offers a few measures that more clearly show trends in the data than those publicly posted by the Arizona Department of Health Services."The idea behind the&nbsp;website once again is to get data out there so people can look at it and they can follow...

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Rachel Leingang

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ASU publishes new COVID-19 data website, first updated model after DHS dust-up

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