Name: H1B 2025 Predictions for Lottery: How Many? Analysis, Results
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H1B 2025 Predictions for Lottery: How Many? Analysis, Results

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Last year during the registration process for the H1B Visa Fiscal Year(FY) 2024 season, we had 781K H1B Registrations filed.  Of the total registrations submitted, there were over 108 applicants, each of whom submitted at least 25 H1B Registrations. Think about it…In all reality, how can a genuine person get 25 Job offers from 25 different companies?  There are similar alarming statistics from the USCIS Data.In the last few years, since the introduction of the H1B registration system, the H1B Visa program has been heavily abused by many bad actors, due to the loopholes in the system. Many filing dozens of H1B registrations, without genuine job offers.This year for the upcoming H1B Visa FY 2025 Season, we expect this fraud to be reduced to some extent.  USCIS, to clamp down on fraud, changed the H1B lottery selection process for the upcoming FY 2025 season.  In this article, we will review the past 10+ years of H1B lottery data, look at trends, various factors that influence the H1B lottery filings such as US Economy, Jobs, F1 OPT students, etc. and do H1B Lottery predictions for the Fiscal Year(FY) 2025 season.The H1B Lottery has been there for many years. But, if you are new to the H1B Lottery process, it can be too much jargon to take. You can read the below few articles to get an idea of the process:Let’s look at the key factors that influence the lottery numbers for the H1B Visa 2025 seasonIn order to predict something, we need to understand the main factors that can have an impact on the same. Below are some of the main factors that we believe will impact the total number of H1B registration submissions for the fiscal year(FY) 2025 season.In the next sections, we will look at each of these factors in detail and come up with the magic number on H1B lottery predictions.If we look at the past USCIS H1B filings data, we see that there was an H1B Lottery for 11 consecutive years, since Fiscal Year 2014. Looking at this past few years’ filings trend and the past H1B Cap reach dates and filing history, it is apparent that we would definitely have an H1B Lottery for the FY 2025 season.The below graph shows the H1B cap reach dates for every year since 2004, with relevant macroeconomic factors during those years highlighted in the same.The next question in everyone’s mind is, how many H1B registrations can we expect during the H1B FY 2025 filing season.  Last year, for FY 2024, we had 780,884 H1B registrations, for FY 2023, there were 483,927 registrations, and before that for FY 2022, it was 308,613.  To get a perspective, see the below graph that shows the trend of the historical H1B registrations/ applications filed with USCIS every year since FY 2004.Even though the trend looks to be going up every year, for the FY 2025 season, we expect the H1B registrations to reduce than FY 2024 season due to the changes in the H1B lottery selection process. We will come to exact prediction towards the end of the article.USCIS published a proposed rule on H1B program modernization&nbsp;in October 2023 that included changes to the H1B Lottery process.  As part of that process, they published a final rule that changes the H1B Lottery process from the FY 2025 season.As part of the new lottery selection process, all applicants are required to submit the applicant’s Passport Number or Travel Document Number.  USCIS will treat multiple registrations as one and run the H1B Lottery based on the Passport number or Travel Document number.In the new H1B lottery selection process, there is no incentive for anyone to submit multiple H1B registrations through multiple employers, as it does not increase their chances. We expect this change in the selection process to have a significant impact on the total number of H1B registrations filed this year.Looking at the below data from USCIS, based on the new H1B lottery selection criteria, we can expect anywhere around 350,000 registrations to be reduced compared to last year.If we look at the US GDP growth rate, it is around 3.2%, which is better than last year’s 2.7% around this same time. In terms of the US unemployment rate, it is around 3.7%, which is similar to last year’s 3.4%.  Both these metrics on GDP growth rate and Unemployment rate indicate that the US Economy is doing similar to last year and maybe slightly better.  While on paper, the unemployment rate is relatively low, the inflation pressures still exist. The Fed is doing everything they can to rescue the situation.  See the below chart from TradingEconomics that shows the overall trend.Though the unemployment rate is very low, it does not directly translate for H1B workers job market. If we look at the H1B LCA Filings trend for the last couple of years, there a 23% Decrease in H1B Jobs since 2022. This clearly indicates the H1B job market is not picking up. Many tech companies still are running a tight ship with minimal hiring.   Due to this less demand for H1B workers, we may see lower H1B registrations based on this factor.If we look at the international students in the US, we see that there is a significant increase driven by increase in the enrollment. The international student enrollment it went up by 11% compared to 3.8% from the past year based on the OpenDoors Report.   See the below screenshot of the F1 students’ data in the US.The total number of F1 Students on OPT and  STEM OPT continues to be similar to the previous year’s, with about 14,000 more than the year before.  This will definitely increase the overall registrations from OPT and STEM OPT applicants.Based on the current data, we have about 198K international students on OPT.  To consider STEM OPT students, we need to look at OPT Students’ data from the last three years. If we add them up, they come to approximately 600K. Based on previous metrics, we can assume about 40% of F1 students on OPT are in the Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics(STEM) Category. Based on the 40% ratio, we can expect to have anywhere around 240K STEM OPT applicants.In comparison with last year, the total number of F1 Students studying in the US and working on OPT and STEM OPT have gone up. This will definitely increase the number of people applying for H1B during the FY 2025 season.In general, not all H4 Visa holders can work. Only spouses of certain H1B visa holders can apply for H4 EAD to work in the US. Due to the PERM processing delays, many of the H4 visa holders are stuck and cannot work.  Also, many companies may not have started the green card process due to the tight labor market. There was a meager 1.6% increase in PERM filings compared to last year. All of these factors put many of the H4 spouses in a tough spot with no clear path to work in the US.  Their only option to start working is to get an H1B visa. As they are already in the US, they can apply for a job and find an employer to sponsor on their behalf. This will increase the H1B filings from H4 holders.If you are working in the US on an L1 Visa, you are stuck with the same company and cannot transfer.  Many such applicants, after entering the US, look for a role outside of their current company and apply for H1B. This has an impact on the total H1B registrations and increases the total H1B registrations.It is a dream for many to work in the US, many do not give up in one try.  We have seen many try their luck for a few years in the past.  If you are already in the US on a different visa, you may never give up as you may not have another option to work in the US.Also, before the Online H1B registration System, it was a lot of work for companies to file H1B petition. But, with the registration process, it is very easy and costs only $10.  This ease of applying and general motivation for many to try few times will increase the H1B registration filings for the FY 2025 Season. &nbsp; USCIS announced a&nbsp;Fee Change Final rule, that has the H1B Registration Fee increase to $215 starting from April 1st, 2024. Due to the timing of the effective date, USCIS is not able to use the $215 fee for the FY 2025 season. The H1B registration Fee for FY 2025 season would be $10 per H1B Registration.Though the fee of $215 is not that big of a number to discourage anyone from filing the H1B registration, it will definitely deter some IT Body shops. This year is the last year for many such companies to file an H1B registration. The current low fee is a factor that increases the total registrations for FY 2025 season.Now that we have looked at all the factors, let’s summarizeBased on the above factors, below is the summary on how each of the factors would influenceIf we look at the overall factors above, it points to having more H1B registrations that will be filed this year. But, one crucial factor to consider is the change in the H1B Lottery selection process, which will eliminate many filing too many registrations to game the system as there will not be any advantage for them.As per USCIS data, for FY 2024 season, we had 350K applicants who submitted only one H1B registration. This year, we expect that to be higher for sure, just based on the demand. Also, we need to factor in some genuine people who have more than one job offer from multiple companies and will submit multiple registrations. Though this does not change the odds in the lottery selection, it will be something to consider.Based on our analysis, we predict anywhere from 420,000 to 500,000 H1B Registrations that could be filed during the FY 2025 season.Below are the timelines for the H1B Registration and Lottery results.In general, you as an applicant cannot check H1B Registration Lottery status online, you need to work with your employer for the same. For more info, read How to Check H1B Lottery ResultsWhat do you think of the H1B Lottery predictions for FY 2025 Season? Share your insights and thoughts in the comments section below.

Last year during the registration process for the H1B Visa Fiscal Year(FY) 2024 season, we had 781K H1B Registrations filed.  Of the total registrations submitted, there were over 108 applicants, each of whom submitted at least 25 H1B Registrations. Think about it…In all reality, how can a genuine person get 25 Job offers from 25 different companies?  There are similar alarming statistics from the USCIS Data.In the last few years, since the introduction of the H1B registration system, the H1B Visa program has been heavily abused by many bad actors, due to the loopholes in the system. Many...

H1B 2025 Predictions for Lottery: How Many? Analysis, Results

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