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Roundtable reaction: Which NHL teams are most impacted by a June draft?

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May 2, 2020It now seems more and more likely the will forge ahead with holding its draft in June – several months before when the league and its players hope they are able to resume the 2019-20 season.The NHL’s Board of Governors will meet remotely Monday and a decision on whether to have a June draft is expected by the end of the week. Given the details revealed in it is clear commissioner Gary Bettman and league executives think a draft in June is the most favorable course of action.Even though many NHL GMs oppose holding a remote draft prior to the conclusion of the season, something that could take until well into September, the league outlined a series of factors supporting the June timeline in spite of acknowledged resistance from some teams.Among the positives outlined by the league is that the league does not want to shoehorn the draft into a short window after the completion of the playoffs – assuming they can be completed – and before the start of a 2020-21 season, which could be delayed into December.Another benefit to having a draft next month is the focus on the league and the game at a time when the sports world has been silenced.The league also outlined altering the draft lottery rules to reduce the possibility that a team could earn a top draft pick and then make the playoffs and win a Stanley Cup. And the memo addressed changing the conditions on 15 trades that require the completion of this postseason.How will it play out? Does it make sense?We asked hockey voices from around The Athletic to weigh in.Pierre LeBrun: The most intriguing part of all the suggestions made in the league memo is what to do with all the conditional draft picks that hang in the balance depending on playoff performance. There are 15 trades affected in this year’s draft.From the memo: We would propose that we share our review and proposed “solutions” to each of the participating Clubs in each of the implicated Trades and then provide the teams with a period of up to seven (7) days to either: (a) reform the Trade on terms acceptable to both teams, or (b) accept the “solution” that has been proposed to them by the League. Obviously, both teams would have to agree to the terms of any “reformation” of any Trade.My interpretation of this is that teams can either accept a solution from the league or both teams involved are free to make their own alteration to the deal as long as they both concur. In talking to a few NHL front office sources Saturday morning, their interpretation was the same as mine. But then there’s a bit of confusion beyond that.Let’s take the trade for example. Carolina owns Toronto’s first-round pick, but there was a condition stipulating that if the ended up with a top 10 draft spot this year that pick would revert to a 2021 unprotected first-rounder for the . Well, if there is a June draft, and as per the memo released Friday, the league will use points percentage on the current standings to draw up the draft order, which means Toronto’s draft spot is 20th-overall. So in theory, it’s all resolved. Carolina gets Toronto’s 20th-overall pick.Except, depending on whom you talk to, some people interpret the memo as saying the Leafs and Hurricanes could still have a conversation about the pick and decide whether they agree for Carolina to take Toronto’s pick next year. Others I spoke with Saturday think the fact it’s not a top 10 pick means they can’t have that conversation.So that’s the kind of thing that’s going to have to be clarified if indeed the June draft goes through. Either way, the idea that the league would suggest “solutions” to these continual trades certainly raised eyebrows among some NHL teams. But then again, what else can the league do if the draft is in June? Those conditional trades have to be resolved ahead of the playoffs. No choice in the matter.NHL standings by points percentageMichael Russo: One of the fairest things that the league addressed in Friday night’s memo was the outside chance that a bubble team could potentially win the lottery and conceivably end up making the playoffs later in the summer and ultimately winning the Stanley Cup.Can you imagine a team like Minnesota moving into the top 3 and&nbsp;winning its first Stanley Cup in history?Actually, who are we kidding? That could – and would – only happen to Chicago.In recent years, the 15 non-playoff teams all had a chance to move into the top 3 of the draft. The league proposes modifying the draft for this year because of the differing number of games played by each team.The league wants to use each team’s points percentage at the time of the pause and rank No. 1-8 in each conference. That would leave 15 teams who would not have qualified for the playoffs and would become eligible for the draft lottery. But it also proposes returning to the old system where only one team wins the lottery and, if so, can only move up a maximum of four spots.So, based on points percentage, Western Conference bubble teams Nashville (.565), Vancouver (.565) and Calgary (.564) and Eastern Conference bubble teams Carolina (.596), the New York Islanders (.588) and Toronto (.579) – three regulation wins more than Columbus, which has also played 70 games and has a .579 points percentage – would not be draft-lottery eligible under next month’s potential system.Western Conference bubble teams like Winnipeg (.563), Minnesota (.558) and Arizona (.529) and Eastern Conference bubble teams Columbus (.579), Florida (.565) and the New York Rangers (.564) would be eligible to win the lottery but only have a crack at moving up four spots.That does seem fair in this not-so perfect world.Under this new proposal, Detroit would be guaranteed No. 1 or 2 overall, which may be something to silence GM Steve Yzerman’s recently-expressed dislike for moving the draft up to June.Max Bultman: Certainly, the Red Wings would be among the biggest winners when it comes to draft position under this proposal. They are in desperate need of an elite talent at forward, and by locking in one of the top two picks, there’s a very good chance they’d be getting a potential star. That’s the headline for them, no doubt. But that’s not to say it comes without tradeoffs.While adding premier talent through the draft is the bedrock of a rebuild, one of the Red Wings’ other key assets is their mountain of cap space this summer. Barring a surprising splash in free agency, one of the most useful ways they could use it would be by taking on other teams’ problem contracts to stockpile more draft picks. They could still do that, mind you, but if the player in question would be coming from a playoff team, then Detroit’s potential trade partner would have to either decide it doesn’t want the player around for this (still uncertain) playoff run, or wait until that team is eliminated and trade a pick for next year’s draft instead. It’s a hypothetical, but a very plausible one.Plus, Detroit has an Edmonton 2020 fourth-round pick (acquired in the trade) that could become a 2021 third-rounder if the make the conference final and Green plays 50 percent of the games. That’s not the most substantial conditional pick hanging in the balance here, but it won’t be resolved organically by draft day.Still, even with those two complications thrown in, the guarantee of getting a top-two pick (and the ability to take , or ) would likely make it all worth it for Detroit in the end. This franchise needs a jolt of excitement, and this would provide it.Hailey Salvian: This year’s draft has the potential to be franchise-altering for the . And the NHL’s proposal to return to the old draft lottery rules would guarantee a positive shift.&nbsp;Under the&nbsp;proposed draft rules&nbsp;there would only be four potential draft scenarios:• No. 1 and No. 3• No. 2 and No. 3• No. 2 and No. 4• No. 3 and No. 4This means their worst-case scenario would be drafting the third- and fourth-overall picks, which is not bad at all. The downside to this proposed format would be that Detroit would have greater odds at winning the No.1 overall pick, whereas by virtue of owning two picks – the San Jose Shark’s pick and their own – the Senators had the greatest percent chance of winning the draft lottery by the current draft lottery rules.Everyone wants to win the Alexis Lafreniere sweepstakes, and this format could mean the Senators miss out on the star forward. But they’d be guaranteed two top-four picks in an elite, forward heavy draft. And having to opportunity to draft a combination of Quinton Byfield, Tim Stutzle, or is a pretty good consolation prize.Corey Pronman: The dynamics of a June vs. a fall draft are complex. There are a lot of factors at play, and very reasonable arguments on both sides of the argument. I’ve talked to team employees who passionately believe in a June draft, and some who are just as strongly in favor of a fall draft. Some of the player personnel concerns are very real that could be affected by a June draft. However, the financial security of the league, its relationship with its TV partners and keeping the sport relevant are also very important and ultimately why the league seems to be attempting to push forward with the June idea.Scott Wheeler: I’ll say this on an early June virtual draft: We know that NHL general managers are opposed to it, but they’re not alone.The top prospects I’ve spoken to since things were paused (and later canceled) in March, as well as their families and their agents, have all expressed varying levels of disdain, resentment or disappointment at rushing into an early date for the draft. They recognize that the draft isn’t going to be held in the format they all dreamed about, but an early June draft may prevent them from even getting together to experience the biggest moment of their young lives with family and friends. The earlier it is, the more restrictive the stay-at-home orders and travel restrictions will still be.The NHL made the case in its memo that the status quo isn’t possible, but waiting would help get closer to something that resembles the status quo than the alternative. The players, anecdotally, are happy to wait. It’s not as though rookie camps and prospect tournaments are going to happen after a June draft, either, so there won’t be a major developmental advantage to getting it over with.Most amateur scouts would also prefer more time to do their due diligence. Their job has been made more difficult by all of this as is. They have already lost valuable late-season viewings, playoffs, end-of-year tournaments, under-18 worlds and the combine. Now they would also be asked to rush into finalizing their lists, reducing the time they have to review tape and formally interview all of the players they hope to get some face time with, which has begun happening over video conference calls in recent weeks.I’m sure the NHL has a business case for moving the draft up. I don’t think the prospect world thinks they have a hockey case, though.Craig Custance: Selfishly, I love the idea of a June draft. I think it’s great exposure for the league. As a media member, it gives us something to write about that’s based in reality. I’m about tapped out re-watching old games. But if I were running a team, like say, the , I’d hate it. It makes re-calibrating the roster to get cap compliant way more challenging before next season. Or imagine if you’re Montreal and you’re sitting on 14 picks. Presumably, GM Marc Bergevin would be using those to improve his team for next season. With a June draft, that becomes much more difficult. That, to me, is the biggest drawback. Trades are such a key part of the draft. Those picks become the currency in which to get deals done. I can see why it remains a tough sell to general managers even if it comes with a big exposure payoff.Scott Burnside: I get the reasoning behind getting out in front of the uncertainty of the rest of the paused season and what lies ahead vis a vis a return to play by having a June draft. There would be buzz. There would be cool stories and interest all over a league. But I still don’t think the benefits outweigh the many negatives.The draft period and the draft itself isn’t just for bottom-feeders who have a shot at Lafreniere or Byfield. This is where all teams take stock of their season and make adjustments and make decisions based on what has transpired. As one GM of a playoff-bound team said, how is any of that possible when you don’t know if you’ve been bounced in the first round or won a Stanley Cup?Further, what happens if the season is ultimately canceled? If there is no resumption of play, shouldn’t every team have at least a potential shot at the No. 1 pick, as was the case coming out of the 2004-05 lockout? Yes. They should. The league will know by late June if it’s going to be able to move forward with regular season games and/or an expanded playoff grid. If you have to cancel the season, you’ve got lots of time to figure out an equitable draft system. If you are going to have hockey into September, simply schedule the draft for a day or two after the last possible day of the final. It wouldn’t be ideal, especially for those draft-eligible players who might enter the fall in limbo, but it would be better than the model the league seems determined to follow.(Photo: Jeff Vinnick / NHLI via Getty Images)

May 2, 2020It now seems more and more likely the will forge ahead with holding its draft in June – several months before when the league and its players hope they are able to resume the 2019-20 season.The NHL’s Board of Governors will meet remotely Monday and a decision on whether to have a June draft is expected by the end of the week. Given the details revealed in it is clear commissioner Gary Bettman and league executives think a draft in June is the most favorable course of action.Even though many NHL GMs oppose holding a remote draft prior to the conclusion of the season, something...

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Scott Burnside

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Roundtable reaction: Which NHL teams are most impacted by a June draft?

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