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Trump Fixates on China as Nuclear Arms Pact Nears Expiration

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The Trump administration is increasingly set on trying to bring China into a key nuclear arms deal with Russia, according to documents obtained by Foreign Policy, amid fears by arms control experts that the effort is futile and the United States is running out of time to recommit to the Obama-era New START treaty.&nbsp;For a year, the Trump administration has floated the idea of pursuing a three-way nuclear arms agreement to replace START, or the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, between the United States and Russia, which sets limits on each country’s long-range nuclear weapons. But the administration’s newly appointed arms control envoy, Marshall Billingslea, is up against a tight timeline and facing new geopolitical headwinds from the global coronavirus pandemic.&nbsp;The New START treaty is set to expire in February 2021, and President Donald Trump faces a tough reelection battle against Democratic rival Joe Biden this November, which could mean a change in administrations just a month before that—two hard deadlines that Billingslea faces as he settles into his new role.The report explicitly says that the administration is worried a potential reauthorization of New START could impact a trilateral arms deal with China and Russia. It also expresses concern that China’s nuclear stockpile will double if the current pact is extended, as it does not cover Beijing.Headlining the Trump administration’s concerns on Russia is a basket of five new nuclear systems announced by President Vladimir Putin in a March 2018 speech,&nbsp;some of which it says&nbsp;are not covered by New START.&nbsp;The treaty does not cover strategic weapons that don’t fit the definition of intercontinental and submarine-launched ballistic missiles, or heavy bombers. (New START also limits warheads and launchers.) Putin said the new weapons could reach “anywhere in the world,” and that the United States would need to “take account of a new reality.”The new reality envisioned by Putin two years ago, U.S. officials fear, could include Russia deploying the nuclear-powered Skyfall cruise missile, which left at least seven people dead after a botched test triggered a nuclear reaction in the city of Nyonoksa; a new air-launched ballistic missile; and an underwater vehicle that boasts intercontinental ranges, outside of a fresh New START. Putin he was ready to reauthorize the 2010 pact during a Russian defense ministry meeting in Moscow late last year.“Of these five systems, only the Avangard and Sarmat systems are, or will be, accountable under the terms of the New START treaty,” the State Department reported, pointing to a hypersonic glide vehicle and a new intercontinental ballistic missile.Robbie Gramer is a diplomacy and national security reporter at Foreign Policy.&nbsp;Twitter:&nbsp;Jack Detsch is a Pentagon and national security reporter at Foreign Policy.&nbsp;Twitter:&nbsp;A rocky marriage of convenience that has lasted since World War II could derail as oil markets crash and mutual mistrust reaches new heights.The former vice president’s team is already in touch with the Sanders camp about a unified platform, operatives say.U.S. Navy says it will extend the investigation into the coronavirus outbreak aboard the USS Theodore Roosevelt, suggesting questions persist about the actions of the ship’s fired skipper.Latest12345Latest AnalysisAccording to IR textbooks, the United States, Russia, and China are on a collision course.Six months into Russia’s war, seven thinkers outline its impact on foreign policy.Misperception, sunk costs, escalation, and internationalization all make conflicts last longer than planned.Russian diplomats were once viewed with begrudging respect in the West. 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The Trump administration is increasingly set on trying to bring China into a key nuclear arms deal with Russia, according to documents obtained by Foreign Policy, amid fears by arms control experts that the effort is futile and the United States is running out of time to recommit to the Obama-era New START treaty.&nbsp;For a year, the Trump administration has floated the idea of pursuing a three-way nuclear arms agreement to replace START, or the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, between the United States and Russia, which sets limits on each country’s long-range nuclear weapons. But the...

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Jack Detsch

Robbie Gramer

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Trump Fixates on China as Nuclear Arms Pact Nears Expiration

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