Name: During pandemic, Illinois saw 27% jump in deaths, among worst in the US. One reason: There were two waves.
Brand: chicagotribune.com
SKU: chicagotribune-com-395
Availability: OnlineOnly

critic

During pandemic, Illinois saw 27% jump in deaths, among worst in the US. One reason: There were two waves.

preview

AdvertisementBy Chicago TribuneMar 11, 2021 at 5:00 amFirst came a tough spring surge, when COVID-19 killed thousands of Illinois residents. Then, an even more brutal one in the fall and winter.Through it all, Illinois managed to avoid the overwhelmed hospitals seen in other states. But a new Tribune analysis of pandemic deaths shows that the two waves took an extraordinarily high toll on the state’s population.Looking at federal estimates of excess deaths — how many more people died than is usually expected — Illinois ranked among the 10 worst states (including the District of Columbia) for the 10-month period from March through December.In Illinois, nearly 111,000 people died from March 1 through Jan. 2, as tallied on a weekly basis by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That’s 27% higher than the average for 2015 through 2019, which was about 87,000 deaths for the same 44-week period.The virus is to blame for most of these extra deaths, but not all. For every five known COVID-19 deaths in Illinois, there were two other deaths that exceeded the typical numbers. Some of those deaths are undiagnosed cases, researchers have said; others are likely people who were unwilling or unable to get critical care for other serious medical conditions during the pandemic.The numbers also support what many experts had already noted: The pandemic disproportionately killed Hispanic and Black Illinoisans, as well as senior citizens. The data also showed notable increases in the deaths of younger adults, tracking with stories of some to the disease.Here’s more on what the data shows:The CDC has computed estimates on excess deaths for all of the states but one (North Carolina) plus the District of Columbia. Those numbers show the pandemic decimated some states far more than others.The hardest hit may not be a surprise — it’s New York — because of the massive number of deaths there during the first wave. Even with generally milder stretches later in 2020, New York state saw an increase in deaths of nearly 37% during the last 10 months of 2020.Compare that with Hawaii, which likely benefited from its geography as a relatively secluded chain of islands. Deaths there were less than 2% higher than average, based on the CDC estimates.One way to look at it: If Illinois had seen a jump in 2020 as bad as New York’s, another 8,000 Illinoisans would have died. And if Illinois had seen a jump as small as Hawaii’s, another 22,000 Illinoisans would have lived to see 2021.Illinois’ 27% boost in deaths led all its neighbors by 4 to 9 percentage points. If Illinois had been able to lessen its death increase to the level seen in Wisconsin, about 7,800 more Illinoisans would have survived.One important note: For some states, the full impact of the late 2020 surges wouldn’t be seen until early 2021. That’s because if the virus turns fatal, deaths two to eight weeks after symptoms appear. For example, California ranked 14th in excess deaths for 2020 — but could rank worse if January 2021 was added to the mix.Illinois wasn’t a focal point of most national media coverage during the pandemic. The state’s spring surge was smaller than New York’s, and as surges peaked elsewhere in the summer and fall, attention shifted to overwhelmed health care facilities in and other states.For the most part, cases in Illinois did not overload its hospitals as severely. So how could Illinois’ increase in deaths rank among the nation’s worst?The data suggests it’s because Illinois, unlike most places, suffered not one but two significant waves, and deaths were still higher than normal in between.Illinois was among a handful of states that were hit hard in the spring. But New York got the headlines as its hospitals quickly filled up. That first wave was so devastating that, during one week in April, New York City recorded a death toll 7½ times higher than average.In Illinois, the spring surge never reached that level of despair — the state’s worst week saw 53% more deaths than usual. The effects also were concentrated in the Chicago area, where some hospitals .And then came the fall, when Illinois saw an even deadlier wave, with death figures from mid-November to mid-December hovering between 50% to 60% more deaths than average. This surge was broader, across the entire state, and even more, with many .Even in the summer, what may have felt like a lull in Illinois was still a deadlier time than normal for the state. Not one week saw death tallies that were below average. During the “best” week, in mid-September, Illinois recorded a death toll that was 7% above average. But in most weeks, deaths were 10% to 15% higher than average.That consistency — bookended by two sizable surges — made Illinois comparatively deadlier than most states.For sure, many of the excess deaths appear directly related to the virus. People caught it and died from it. It’s a sad but a simple explanation.But it doesn’t explain all of the deaths.During the 10 months from March 1 through Jan. 2 — again, the data is compiled on a weekly basis — the CDC estimates COVID-19 was blamed for 16,887 deaths in Illinois. (Side note: The official tally from the Illinois Department of Public Health was 16,674, or 213 fewer people, but there are slight differences in how the two agencies tabulate COVID-19 deaths.)Taking out the COVID-19 deaths leaves an additional 6,880 deaths above the average, based on the CDC’s estimates, that were not tied to the coronavirus.In other words, even without the fatalities linked to the virus, more Illinois residents than usual were dying.Of course, it’s normal for death figures to bounce up and down, from year to year. In a given week, deaths might happen to be a bit higher than the previous year, or a bit lower. So scientists also try to calculate whether the death toll exceeds the likely range of these random fluctuations.And the data shows that, from late March onward, the number of non-COVID-19 deaths in Illinois last year often exceeded this statistical threshold.As , there are many reasons deaths increased during the pandemic even without a direct connection to the virus.Some people likely died of undiagnosed COVID-19, especially in the pandemic’s earliest stages when the deaths may have been attributed to influenza, pneumonia, Alzheimer’s disease or dementia.Undiagnosed COVID-19 also could have caused damage that helped trigger fatal heart attacks and strokes. But a more common scenario, doctors have said, is that people suffering from chronic health conditions were afraid of venturing out or suffered financial hardship that interfered with their care. Some then died as they tried to ride out worsening symptoms at home.Another possibility is that the health care people received during the pandemic was often limited; think virtual visits versus showing up in a doctor’s office. That could have affected the quality of care patients received, said Dr. , who chairs UChicago Medicine’s neurology department.“I don’t want to throw anybody under the bus, or throw health care under the bus, because we’ve done a lot of things right in the pandemic,” Prabhakaran said. “But I think the unintended effects of doing most of the care virtually, for a long period of time, could have some real detrimental effects on health outcomes.”It may be no surprise that the pandemic, in general, killed more older people than younger ones.But death rates among the elderly are already high, even without a pandemic. So another way to compare the virus’s impact on different age groups is to figure out how much deaths increased compared with past years’ averages.Doing that offers a more surprising picture. While people 85 and older died at rates roughly 22% more than average during the last 10 months of 2020, according to CDC estimates, the increases were even higher in the next-oldest age groups.Illinoisans ages 75-84 saw deaths increase nearly 30% above average. For those 65-74, the increase was 35%.Even the middle-aged saw a bigger jump than the oldest age group; for example, those 25-44 died at rates 32% more than average.The only age group to see a drop in deaths was people under 25, with a slight dip of less than 2%. Experts attribute that to the lockdown limiting the chance of suffering a fatal accident.Stark differences also emerged among racial groups.For example, Illinois typically records roughly 4,700 deaths among Hispanic residents in the last 10 months of the year. But last year, the CDC estimated the figure at more than 8,400. That’s nearly 81% higher than average, which is roughly double the 41% jump in deaths among Black residents.For non-Hispanic white Illinoisans, the jump was still notable, but far more modest, at 18% above average.The CDC data doesn’t allow a more detailed dive into both race and age. But researchers who have looked at such data say it underscores the divide., a senior economist at the U.S. Census Bureau, was part of a team that researched racial and ethnic variations in deaths during the country’s spring surge. The racial and ethnic differences are even more stark in some age groups, she said.“Unfortunately, the disparities are even greater,” she said. “And they were already large as it is.”, a professor of computer science and engineering at the University of Illinois, has also studied excess deaths. He cautioned that the data on excess deaths helps highlight differences but can’t explain why certain groups have suffered more. But Jacobson said he suspects the differences in deaths are related to socioeconomic differences that can put some groups at greater risk of exposure.“People who are in jobs that enable them to work remotely are much more protected, and they are not going to be infected and die at the same rate,” he said.A spring by the Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning found people of color were disproportionately represented among essential workers. The analysis found Black workers were most overrepresented in health care support and protective services, such as security guards, and Hispanic workers in construction and food service.Because of lags in states providing data to the CDC, it can be difficult to identify trends in the early months of 2021.The CDC does offer estimates, which take into account past years’ lags to calculate the numbers that the CDC suspects states will eventually turn in.As of this week, the CDC offered estimates through the week ending Feb. 20. And in that seven-week period, the CDC estimates Illinois will report roughly 17,500 deaths, or about 2,000 more than average. That’s about 13% more deaths than is typical for that stretch.The good news is these estimates imply that non-COVID-19 deaths dropped below average during this time period in Illinois. Of course, that seven-week stretch also saw the Illinois Department of Public Health report 3,560 COVID-19 deaths, which explains why the CDC estimates a higher-than-average overall death tally for Illinois in that period.Researchers say it will ultimately take months, if not years, to fully grasp how many deaths occurred during the pandemic, and precisely why.“I think there’s so much more than we don’t know,” Udalova said.jmahr@chicagotribune.com Advertisement

AdvertisementBy Chicago TribuneMar 11, 2021 at 5:00 amFirst came a tough spring surge, when COVID-19 killed thousands of Illinois residents. Then, an even more brutal one in the fall and winter.Through it all, Illinois managed to avoid the overwhelmed hospitals seen in other states. But a new Tribune analysis of pandemic deaths shows that the two waves took an extraordinarily high toll on the state’s population.Looking at federal estimates of excess deaths — how many more people died than is usually expected — Illinois ranked among the 10 worst states (including the District of Columbia)...

public

Joe Mahr

The Chicago Tribune is a daily newspaper based in Chicago, Illinois, United States, owned by Tribune Publishing. Founded in 1847, and formerly self-styled as the "World's Greatest Newspaper" (a slogan for which WGN radio and television are named), it remains the most-read daily newspaper of the Chicago metropolitan area and the Great Lakes region. It had the 6th highest circulation for American newspapers in 2017.

During pandemic, Illinois saw 27% jump in deaths, among worst in the US. One reason: There were two waves.

No article scores yet.

CRITIC REVIEWS

PUBLIC REVIEWS