Name: The Maple Leafs are a juggernaut. Why their schedule strength has little to do with it
Brand: theathletic.com
SKU: theathletic-com-252
Availability: OnlineOnly

critic

The Maple Leafs are a juggernaut. Why their schedule strength has little to do with it

preview

Mar 3, 2021Back-to-back shutout wins with your backup and third-string goalie against Connor McDavid’s Oilers and without your best player to take control of first place in the league is a statement. The have the league’s best record at 17-4-2 and the second-best goal differential at plus-26. They look like a juggernaut.In any other year, it would be enough to cement the Leafs as one of the league’s best teams. There would be detractors saying nothing matters until they prove literally anything in the postseason, sure, but even they would have to admit the team’s current pace (128 points over a full 82 game season) is impressive.This year is different though, and that’s led to some vocal opposition regarding Toronto’s record, with some wondering if the team is actually good or the beneficiary of a fortunate circumstance.The main issue: The relative strength of each division, with many believing the Maple Leafs are feasting on inferior opponents.Schedule strength has been a hot topic this season with every team sequestered within the confines of their own division. That makes it very difficult to compare teams across divisions, as it’s not exactly an apples-to-apples comparison.One team may have an elite record but would it be as strong if they played a different schedule?That’s the question on many minds as they navigate this season, leading to a lot of guesswork. Many are intuiting that the league’s worst division is the North. Given the lack of defence across some of those games, I don’t blame them, even if those same people seem to be ignoring that the North also happens to be the best offensive division.I don’t think the answer to which division is easiest or hardest is quite that simple. Frankly, I don’t think it’s one anyone can confidently answer without having the inter-division context necessary to do so.What can be done is actually measuring team strength of schedule. That’s where having a game probability model is helpful. It can show how many games each team was expected to win based on pregame odds, as well as show the average expected-win percentage of their opponents. It won’t be perfect because, well, the model is influenced by games from this year that have been intra-division only, however, it is informed by priors that help alleviate that to an extent.The model uses the last three seasons, and while this current season is weighed the heaviest, the 2018-19 and 2019-20 seasons still hold some cache. At the very least, it should provide a decent enough ballpark estimate for how tough each schedule has been.Below is a chart with the three teams expected to be at the top of each respective division, their win percentage, their expected-win percentage based on pre-game probabilities, the difference between the two, and finally, the average projected team strength at the time of game as well as their opponent’s. The last one is perhaps the most illuminating as it’s what we’re after here: schedule strength.Perhaps surprisingly, the Leafs schedule doesn’t appear as easy as some might expect among the top 10 teams. In fact – it’s been among the hardest.(All data prior to Tuesday’s games.)Now, “hardest” is obviously relative here. The Leafs’ fleet of opponents have been below average on the whole, but so too have seven of the other top 10 teams. Only Carolina and Washington have had an above average strength of schedule so far.Saying the Leafs have taken advantage of a soft schedule greatly undersells the fact that nearly every top team has. By average opponent strength, Boston and Toronto are virtually equal, but there aren’t nearly as many people dismissing Boston’s record. The defending Stanley Cup champions are the only team winning as often as Toronto, but Tampa Bay’s schedule is actually the third easiest here with an average opponent strength of 0.479. Colorado and Vegas are also lower than Toronto. Those are generally considered to be the consensus four best teams in the league, and all four have had an easier schedule than Toronto. And a worse record. In Colorado’s case significantly so, though no one has really questioned the (and frankly, they shouldn’t).That may not add up for some people, but it’s not too hard to figure out why Tampa Bay or Vegas have had easier schedules. Yes, there are games against Carolina and Colorado, or Florida and Minnesota – but there are also many more games against a wretched bottom four in both divisions. The North has one real whipping boy in Ottawa and an underachieving team as the second worst in the group. In comparison, the West has three teams worse than the Canucks (California) and an Arizona team that’s arguably comparable in skill. The Central has Detroit, and then three teams similar to Vancouver (Columbus, Nashville and Chicago). There are a lot more opportunities to pile on points in both divisions.The flip side to that is the argument that no one poses any real threat to Toronto in the North. While that’s certainly true, it’s also true of the East, where there’s a rather wide chasm between Boston and the rest of the division. It’s those two divisions that seem the most comparable with a clear alpha dog up top, a clear bottom feeder or two, and a mushy middle of competitive, albeit non-elite teams. The East group headlined by Philadelphia, Washington, Pittsburgh and the certainly has the stronger reputation, and anyone in their right mind is taking that group over the next North foursome. But Montreal, Edmonton, Winnipeg and Calgary are no slouches in terms of overall talent – even if the have looked very much like less than the sum of their parts.Having said that, the similar ratings between the East and North middleweights probably has a bit to do with the model adjusting to each team playing each other. That could inflate the values of Edmonton, Montreal, Winnipeg and Calgary more than it should, which in turn pads Toronto’s schedule strength. While that is very likely true, it would take those four being very bad in order for a 17-4-2 record to not be contender level. That’s usually a 105-point team, and it’s simply impossible that schedule strength could be worth 20 points or more over a full season.That’s about 3.25 wins after 23 games, an effect size that would suggest the Leafs’ average opponents have a true talent level of 0.350 rather than 0.495. In order for schedule strength to be a believable excuse for Toronto’s current record, the Leafs would’ve had to play 23 games against a team comparable to Ottawa and Detroit. Every game.Say what you will about the rest of the North, but they’re obviously not that bad. Even if their schedule was considered to be as easy as Minnesota’s – the softest schedule of the top 10 teams – that would only account for one extra win in the standings right now. That would still give Toronto the league’s third-best win percentage.The Leafs aren’t being challenged by another contender, and are indeed feasting on a number of middling teams (though I do believe Edmonton and Montreal are better than given credit for), but that shouldn’t discount what they’ve done to date. The problem comes with results-oriented thinking and the natural tendency to not view games probabilistically. It’s human nature to believe the better team should win very often, even if it’s the furthest thing from the truth in hockey where the biggest favourites still only top out at around 60-to-65 percent on any given night with very rare cases above 70 percent. When a team has a hot run against average opponents, the thinking is “of course they should’ve won, they’re the better team” without acknowledging the difficulty of consistently doing so on a nightly basis.That’s what separates the best from the rest and that’s where the Leafs currently land. That shouldn’t have been all that surprising given they’ve been a strong team over the last few seasons, had a good offseason, and were put in a division where they were head-and-shoulders above the rest. Nearly every model figured the Leafs would be a top-five team – as did every oddsmaker.A lot of it also stems from a preconceived notion regarding Toronto’s ability, one that comes from ignoring division strength in prior years. With that in the back of people’s minds, it’s easy to write off the entire North: How good could it really be if Toronto is dominating it to this degree?That ignores that this is a very different Leafs team than prior years, with their top players taking their games to new heights, the depth contributing, and backup goaltending not sewering them. Most importantly, team defence is indeed much improved, and that’s been the real driving force for Toronto’s strong play. While the average North team scores 3.05 goals-per-game, the highest of any division, that number is actually 3.16 goals-per-game if Toronto’s 2.39 goals against per game is excluded, the league’s fourth-best mark.That the team has been able to contain such a high-octane division to such low scoring is an impressive feat that isn’t getting nearly enough credit. That was on full display over the past two games, with back-to-back shutouts against the Oilers. Some of that is percentages driven, but it’s also worth noting that at five-on-five the Leafs are above average in chance suppression with a rate identical to Tampa Bay’s. Shorthanded, they’re top five.For years, everyone has said the one thing holding Toronto back is good defence. The Leafs are proving otherwise this season in what’s likely the most difficult division to do so.The team defence has been really impressive this season. While we have been staring at the offence, this style played effectively looks really good. This is not a fluke IMO— Ray Ferraro (@rayferrarotsn)But while an easy division is arguably not the primary cause for Toronto’s record and improvement this season (an unsustainable one-goal game record and a very high PDO have certainly inflated it more), it’s important to not rush too far in the opposite direction either. The Leafs have the best record in hockey, even after accounting (as best as possible) for schedule strength, but that doesn’t mean they’re the best team in hockey.It’ll take more than 23 games to prove that. And, for most people, it’s something they won’t prove until they show something in the playoffs.For now, Tampa Bay and Colorado are still at the top of the food chain, with Vegas and Boston in the mix, too. What Toronto has proven with this start though is the Leafs are no longer an afterthought in that conversation.They belong in it.Data via Evolving Hockey(Photo: Perry Nelson / USA TODAY Sports)

Mar 3, 2021Back-to-back shutout wins with your backup and third-string goalie against Connor McDavid’s Oilers and without your best player to take control of first place in the league is a statement. The have the league’s best record at 17-4-2 and the second-best goal differential at plus-26. They look like a juggernaut.In any other year, it would be enough to cement the Leafs as one of the league’s best teams. There would be detractors saying nothing matters until they prove literally anything in the postseason, sure, but even they would have to admit the team’s current pace (128 points...

public

Dom Luszczyszyn

Get every sports story that matters. Download The Athletic app: https://linktr.ee/TheAthletic

The Maple Leafs are a juggernaut. Why their schedule strength has little to do with it

No article scores yet.

CRITIC REVIEWS

PUBLIC REVIEWS