Name: What Evgeni Malkin's early struggles suggest about his days as an elite player
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What Evgeni Malkin's early struggles suggest about his days as an elite player

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Feb 22, 2021It was another subpar game for on Saturday against the .He earned a power-play assist on the ’ opening goal, his first power-play assist of the season, but again found himself on the wrong side of the ledger at five-on-five. Malkin had just a 31 percent expected goals rate on the night and was on for both Islanders goals against. It’s safe to say he got what he deserved, too.On the first goal, he put a rather routine pass into the skates of on a three-on-two, only to see it go back for a rush the other way — one in which Malkin absolutely dogged the backcheck. The second was a muffin from the outside that should’ve had, but it started with a bad breakout attempt to Malkin that was exacerbated by him blowing the zone early and then returning lackadaisically.Neither goal is totally on Malkin as few goals are ever on one player, but the habits in the aftermath of a turnover are tough to overlook. They’ve been far too common this season too, leading to some troubling numbers to start the season.There’s something off with Malkin this season and it’s why the Penguins haven’t looked like the Penguins so far despite a solid 9-6-1 record.“Solid” isn’t the standard Pittsburgh usually plays up to. The Penguins’ record puts them at a 97-point pace over an 82-game season. Since 2006-07, Malkin’s first season, the Penguins have only finished below a 100-point pace twice: in 2014-15 and 2008-09.Pittsburgh is used to starting slow though, doing so in each of the past three seasons before rounding into form. The Penguins deserve some benefit of the doubt for that. Many have been calling for their demise for years, and still they’ve managed to consistently stay near the top of the league, even if it hasn’t translated to much playoff success.This season feels different though.The reason the Penguins have historically deserved the benefit of the doubt has been because they employ and Malkin and other teams do not. Center is the most valuable position in hockey. Having those two was a cheat code, two of the very best in the world. Having one of, if not the best players in the world in Crosby is obviously a luxury, and perhaps even more so was having Malkin behind him on the second line, a player who at his peak was right there next to Crosby. For over a decade, a large majority of the league didn’t have anyone that good manning their first line.As recently as last season, Malkin had legitimate claim to be in the MVP conversation. He scored 74 points in 55 games, a 110-point pace with a 58 percent expected goals rate, a mark that led the team and was one of the highest of his career. Last year he was worth 3.1 wins, a 4.5-win rate over 82 games that ranked behind only , and . Like he always has whenever Crosby has been sidelined for a lengthy stretch of time, Malkin put the team on his back and was the main reason they were so competitive last season.It was for that reason that it felt hard to bet against the Penguins this season, even after another embarrassing playoff defeat. So far, Crosby has mostly held up his end of the bargain. He has 15 points in 16 games and his line continues to drive play at five-on-five to the tune of a 57 percent expected goals rate. Unfortunately, Malkin’s line hasn’t, and not by a long shot. Malkin simply hasn’t been Malkin.That’s clear as day if you’ve tuned into any Penguins games this season. Malkin looks a step slower than usual and perhaps more worrisome, far less engaged in the play. Malkin is a force when he’s on his game, capable of dominating players with both his skill and might, but those moments have been much less common this season. He hasn’t handled the puck well, his passes haven’t been as crisp and his decision-making has been more suspect. It’s all left Malkin looking like a shade of the player he usually is.All that shows up in the numbers too, which have been very pedestrian, especially compared with his illustrious past results.Malkin has 10 points in 16 games this season, a pace that falls well beyond his usual rate. But it’s even worse than it appears at first blush when you dig a little deeper. At five-on-five Malkin is scoring 1.61 points per 60, which is fine, but half of those are secondary assists. The lowest primary point rate of his career was 1.37 in 2010-11. He’s at 0.81 this year. On the power play, things are arguably looking even more dire. The Penguins power play is usually a machine, but the Malkin cog has been nonexistent so far as he has just one goal and one assist in 50 minutes of ice time. That helps explain why the Penguins currently sit 25th in the league with the man advantage.As usual with this stuff, it goes beyond point production too. The Penguins have never been out-chanced with Malkin on the ice in the 13 years for which data is available, but that’s changed this season when Pittsburgh is sporting a ghastly 43 percent expected goals rate with Malkin on the ice. It’s a major issue at both ends of the ice where the 2.78 expected goals against per 60 allowed are the most of his career, and the 2.1 expected goals generated are the least, and by a healthy margin. That he’s been so off driving offense is especially weird because he posted a career high in that category just last season. For just the fourth time in his career, the Penguins have been outscored with Malkin on the ice, and for the first time, he’s deserved it.Tying his lack of production and poor play-driving ability together is Malkin’s own severe inability to generate scoring chances. Like clockwork, Malkin has always generated somewhere between 0.75 and one individual expected goal per 60, with one outlier season in 2010-11 at 1.2. That comes from decent volume, but also his ability to create high-quality chances. At five-on-five, his expected shooting percentage has been 10.6 percent on average, usually falling between 9 percent and 12 percent. This year he’s taking two fewer shots per 60, but the much larger issue is the quality of those shots.This season, Malkin’s expected shooting percentage is sitting at just 5.8 percent, nearly half of his career average. For context, that’s the 17th-worst mark this season. It’s like he’s been weirdly allergic to prime scoring real estate this season, which is extremely unlike him. Malkin is a bull who has previously never been shy about getting to the dirty areas, but there have been moments this season when rather than drive the net, he’s floated a shot from the outside and called it a day.It’s noticeable from watching and even more damning when comparing his shot locations from year to year. Thanks to ’s spray chart tool, we can see just how drastic the difference is in Malkin’s shot locations year over year.Last season — and most other seasons — Malkin made the slot his home. This year he can’t find a way in, settling for a plethora of shots from the top of the left circle and the bottom of the right circle. According to Natural Stat Trick, Malkin is generating just 0.81 high danger attempts per 60 this season. He was at 3.6 last season.All that has led to Malkin having an average Game Score of 0.29, a mark usually reserved for a bottom-six grinder. It’s a mark he’s only been at or below during a 16-game stretch five other times in his career. So there’s some precedence for him playing this poorly, but it’s extremely rare. By GSVA, which accounts for teammates and usage, he’s been worth minus-0.03 wins — below replacement. That’s a very unfamiliar home for Malkin.That’s caused Malkin’s projected value to tank throughout the season. He started the season projected to be worth 3.53 wins per 82 games and has already seen that drop by just over a full win to 2.47 wins. Only has seen his projected value drop by more.Malkin’s value has essentially been downgraded from an elite center to a first-line center. That’s still good, but far from where he needs to be for the Penguins to make some playoff noise. He hasn’t played like a first-line talent this year yet, but his priors still suggest he should be able to bounce back and get there. He’s Malkin, after all.Time waits for no man though, and Malkin is now 34 years old, an age when most players fall off quickly. There are other reasons Malkin may be struggling this season — a lack of chemistry with Zucker, the removal of from his line, not being able to prior to the season — but it’s difficult to ignore the age factor.The season is still young and it’s too early to tell whether this is simply a sign of things to come. If it is, the Penguins could be in a rough patch. Malkin has had a Hall of Fame-worthy career to date, but it’s fair to wonder whether his age is finally catching up with him.Is this the beginning of the end for Malkin as an elite player?— Data via Evolving-Hockey, Natural Stat Trick and Hockey Stat Cards.(Photo: Mitchell Leff / Getty Images)

Feb 22, 2021It was another subpar game for on Saturday against the .He earned a power-play assist on the ’ opening goal, his first power-play assist of the season, but again found himself on the wrong side of the ledger at five-on-five. Malkin had just a 31 percent expected goals rate on the night and was on for both Islanders goals against. It’s safe to say he got what he deserved, too.On the first goal, he put a rather routine pass into the skates of on a three-on-two, only to see it go back for a rush the other way — one in which Malkin absolutely dogged the backcheck. The second was a...

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Dom Luszczyszyn

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What Evgeni Malkin's early struggles suggest about his days as an elite player

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