Name: Luszczyszyn: Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are in a new tier
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Luszczyszyn: Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are in a new tier

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Feb 5, 2021It’s the answer to a classic SAT-style word analogy: is to as&nbsp; is to .Each of these dominant-down-the-middle one-two punches features one player widely considered to be transcendent, the best player in the world, and a second considered the sidekick, a dazzling top-five player capable of looking just as good on many nights. Of course, McDavid has been compared to Crosby — as The Next One — since before he even entered the league, and it’s only fitting that Draisaitl would get the Malkin treatment as McDavid’s accomplice.That’s been particularly true this season, when McDavid and Draisaitl have dominated the North Division, torching nearly every team in their path en route to a truly exceptional start. Through 12 games, the two lead the league by a wide margin in most offensive categories and have put up strong numbers at five-on-five. McDavid has 24 points and is earning a dominant expected goals percentage (61 percent), and Draisaitl has 22 points and is looking even stronger by actual goals percentage (93 percent). It’s why by total Game Score Value Added, they rank first and second this season.Statistics and ranks are through Wednesday night’s games, via Evolving Hockey.&nbsp;In just 12 games, the duo has both been worth just over one win each, according to , an absurd seven-win pace over an 82-game season. That the two have been so strong to start isn’t so surprising, given that they both have a Hart Trophy under their belts, but even those award-winning seasons pale in comparison with how the duo has looked to start this one. It’s obviously easier to look this good over 12 games than to do so over 82, but this still feels like an entirely new level. It’s arguably the best hockey either has played.It’s been enough to drastically boost each player’s current true talent projection, a major point of contention before the season started. McDavid started the season at 4.48 wins, the second-highest in the league, which was obviously one spot too low for the best player in the world. After 12 games, he’s up 0.67 wins to 5.15, in a “tier of his own,” where he belongs. Draisaitl was eighth coming in at 3.91 wins, arguably too low for the reigning Hart Trophy winner. He’s jumped 0.64 wins to 4.55 wins, good for fourth in the league behind only McDavid, and . And, yes, he’s now ahead of for those who still believe the model had some sort of bias there.The reason both started lower was legitimate at the time. Their defensive results were suspect enough to question their overall contributions. Both players barely outscored opposing teams at five-on-five last season, and their play-driving impacts reinforced that, so you had to consider just how important all those points were. Now? Those issues have mostly been squashed, and it’s noticeable how much stronger both players look as a result.The takeaway from the model’s projected output at the time was that both superstars still had another gear in them. We’re seeing that play out this season.McDavid, in particular, has been an unstoppable force on a nightly basis, and that manifests in his godlike expected goals numbers. When the analytics crowd said “we expect more from the best player in the world,” this is what they meant, and though it hasn’t worked out as much in outscoring opponents, that will regress soon. The fact that McDavid has looked this good and has arguably been unlucky at five-on-five is a scary thought. It sure looks that way with the number of chances he’s able to create on a nightly basis.Draisaitl has been a lot more fortunate at five-on-five (his expected goals percentage of 48 percent significantly trails his actual output), but with someone of his talent level playing secondary minutes, outscoring the expectations shouldn’t be surprising — although maybe not to this high of a degree.Relative to teammates, both players have seen drastic improvements to their defensive numbers too, and that’s a very welcome sign for this season. Last year, the gave up 0.41 more expected goals against per 60 with McDavid on the ice and 0.29 with Draisaitl. This year, they’re allowing 0.32 fewer with McDavid and are even with Draisaitl. That’s a huge difference. The big story is obviously the duo’s point totals with a 164- and 150-point 82-game pace being past the threshold of caring about expected goals, but it’s still a strong development toward both looking like more complete players. The offence is arguably even more dominant as a result.That brings us back to the Crosby-Malkin comparison.At their recorded peaks between 2009 (the earliest season for projected GSVA unfortunately, the peak likely goes back further) and 2015, Crosby was generally projected to be worth around five wins, give or take, with a peak of 6.3 wins after the 2012-13 season. Malkin was generally projected to be worth about four wins with a peak of 4.4 wins in 2013-13. On average, my model figured both would deliver just over nine wins of value, with a peak of 10.7 in 2012-13. As it stands right now, McDavid and Draisaitl are projected to be worth a combined 9.7 wins, the third highest for a duo since 2009-10 and right above five different Crosby and Malkin seasons.The comparison to Pittsburgh’s elite duo is made for good reason: The Edmonton duo is currently on the same level. In fact, it might be even higher, and that’s on Draisaitl, whose current projection of 4.6 wins is higher than Malkin has been in any season. After all those years of people questioning whether Draisaitl can legitimately be the Malkin to McDavid’s Crosby, he might be even better. On the chart above, Draisaitl is the best second fiddle of the last decade.It’s worth noting that the different scoring environments the duos have existed in may underrate Crosby-Malkin, as is the fact that Draisaitl has spent a lot more time at five-on-five with McDavid than Malkin ever did with Crosby. Still, in terms of career trajectories, the paths project to be markedly similar.Everyone knows how good McDavid is or can be, but with Draisaitl there has always been some sort of doubt, a question mark, a nitpick. He has consistently proved any doubter wrong. He is the real deal. It’s fueled him to be even better with every passing year, a rocket-like path from his humble first season to his current path.In 2014-15, at 19 years old, he had to prove he was even NHL-calibre after a disappointing season for a third overall pick.He did that in 2015-16 with a breakout sophomore season. But now he had to prove he wasn’t just a product of . He did that too, scoring 77 points in 2016-17, the season after Hall was traded.In 2018-19 he scored 50 goals in 82 games on just 231 shots, a 21.6 percent shooting percentage. Now he had to prove he could keep that up, that it wasn’t just a flash-in-the-pan season. He did that in 2019-20 by having an even better season, scoring at a 50-goal pace once again and adding an absurd assist total to lead the league in points. There were questions going into that season as to how much he benefitted from playing on a line with McDavid, but he squashed that in the second half of the year, scoring just as many points manning his own line. And now his scoring dominance that has continued into the 2020-21 season.That leaves his defence as the final concern, and Draisaitl seems to be quieting any doubt there as well. It’s been amazing to witness this season, in which opponents have only scored 0.4 goals-per-60 against him. He can thank his goalies for that, but the defensive improvement mentioned before with his expected totals is still noteworthy. And that’s without the benefit of by his side.McDavid has that same gene, and we’re likely in store for his best season after an offseason of questioning whether he was still the best player in the world. There’s no doubt the Nathan MacKinnon hype and McDavid’s own teammate winning MVP the year prior lived rent free in his head going into the 2020-21 season, and that only served as motivation. This is the result: the best version of McDavid we’ve seen yet.Combine that with the best version of Draisaitl we’ve seen, and it makes for a duo that should terrorize the rest of the North Division for the rest of the season. That the Oilers are only 6-6-0 is on the rest of the team struggling, not on their twin superstars who have played as spectacularly as any duo could over a 12-game stretch.And here’s the proof of that.I went back through every combined 12-game set since 2007-08 for Crosby and Malkin, noting their combined total Game Score. Crosby has had better 12-game sets than McDavid’s current 25.9 total. Malkin has had better 12-game sets than Draisaitl’s current 23.9 total. But never have the duo been running as hot at the same as the Oilers duo currently is, with a combined total Game Score of 49.8. The best the duo has done is 47.8.Each dot represents one 12-game segment for Pittsburgh, and its position on the chart reflects how strong Crosby and Malkin were during that segment. Farther to the right means Crosby played well, farther up means Malkin played well, and the top right means both players played well. The closer to the top-right corner, the better, and that’s where McDavid and Draisaitl’s 12-game start lands: better than any 12 games Crosby and Malkin have played together.That’s by Game Score’s standards, anyway. And it’s important to note that the scoring eras are different, not to mention the quality of competition in the North, where defence is optional and there are a lot of games against the .Still, that should in no way take away from how special McDavid and Draisaitl have been to start the season, playing like the best two players in the world.It’ll be hard to keep up numbers like these over a full season, but it’s evident both players have brought their very best. Though Edmonton’s current record doesn’t reflect it, the Oilers are a team to fear as long as McDavid and Draisaitl continue rolling.Data via Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey, Hockey Reference and Hockey Stat Cards.(Photo: Jonathan Kozub / NHLI via Getty Images)

Feb 5, 2021It’s the answer to a classic SAT-style word analogy: is to as&nbsp; is to .Each of these dominant-down-the-middle one-two punches features one player widely considered to be transcendent, the best player in the world, and a second considered the sidekick, a dazzling top-five player capable of looking just as good on many nights. Of course, McDavid has been compared to Crosby — as The Next One — since before he even entered the league, and it’s only fitting that Draisaitl would get the Malkin treatment as McDavid’s accomplice.That’s been particularly true this season, when McDavid...

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Luszczyszyn: Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are in a new tier

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