Name: Spike in pneumonia deaths in Florida shows an earlier, deadlier arrival of coronavirus, experts say
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Spike in pneumonia deaths in Florida shows an earlier, deadlier arrival of coronavirus, experts say

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AdvertisementBy South Florida Sun SentinelApr 17, 2020 at 4:14 pmIt was midway through March and Florida’s peak flu season was winding down. Then a steep, sudden and alarming spike in pneumonia-related deaths appeared — signaling the arrival of a killer: the new coronavirus.Experts say the grim spike likely included coronavirus deaths recorded, instead, as pneumonia. And the timing could mean the virus was unchecked through Florida communities as early as late February, weeks before the state began taking social-distancing measures.AdvertisementThe state Department of Health would not comment on whether its official includes the flu and pneumonia-related deaths. But experts assure that a portion of the spike was caused by COVID-19 induced pneumonia.“It is likely that they missed some COVID-19 deaths and reported them as respiratory deaths,” said Amira Roess, an epidemiology professor at George Mason University who specializes in infectious disease research.AdvertisementRoess and other epidemiologists say that these coronavirus deaths likely contributed to the spike, which now appears, on its face, to be one of Florida’s largest rates of pneumonia and influenza-related mortality going back at least five flu seasons.Now, even as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis , the sharp increase in March pneumonia deaths alters the fundamental narrative of the coronavirus outbreak in Florida: This pandemic started earlier and has been broader, deadlier and more rampant than previously known.The surge came during the week of March 15, suggesting potential coronavirus cases could have been lurking in the state weeks before.“Deaths take several weeks to happen,” said Mary Jo Trepka, who heads the Department of Epidemiology at Florida International University. “People get sick, then they get sicker, then they get a secondary infection and then they die.”During the previous two weeks, about 250 Floridians per week had been dying from flu or pneumonia. The next week brought 283 deaths. The following week, 320 — mostly from pneumonia.The flu season had petered off in mid-February as it usually does, according to data from the Florida Department of Health. Deaths from flu and pneumonia peaked the week of Feb. 9, when some 260 people died, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control.It wasn’t until mid-March that the governor took the first action to control the spread, putting occupancy limits on restaurants. And he was still saying a statewide shutdown was not necessary. At the same time, the State Department of Health disclosed the first coronavirus deaths in southeast Florida without histories of international travel, pointing to the possibility of community transmission.Advertisement“There’s widespread community transmission right now almost everywhere,” Dr. Aileen Marty, a professor of infectious diseases at Florida International University, told the South Florida Sun Sentinel on March 16. “In the absence of needed testing, they’ve been blinding themselves from it,” she said, of state and national authorities.Florida tracks deaths from flu and pneumonia in a database called ESSENCE. Hospitals, ambulatory care centers and vital records offices throughout the country use the system to detect the early warning signs of infectious disease outbreaks.The data captured by ESSENCE is then reported to state health departments and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.Deaths are categorized after the health department scans death certificates from vital records offices for mentions of “pneumonia” and “influenza” for its tallies. The department it was excluding certificates where the death was attributed to “COVID-19,” and it seems to have included deaths from COVID in the ESSENCE data at least through April 1.“Someone who dies of coronavirus, they might have COVID listed as the primary cause and pneumonia listed as the secondary cause,” explained Daniel Weinberger, associate professor of epidemiology at the Yale School of Public Health.The same is true for influenza, he said. But when a death is not tested for either disease, those filling out the death certificate often list the primary cause of death as pneumonia.Advertisement“My guess is that a good chunk of that death that you see there is due to coronavirus, and it’s not being listed on the death report,” Weinberger said.As it happensGet updates on developing stories as they happen with our free breaking news email alerts. &gt; “There seems to be a lot of unexplained deaths that weren’t classified as COVID-19 but were excess unexpected deaths,” Trepka said. “I agree with you that some of that spike might have been due to COVID-19.″Lack of widespread testing in the early stages of the Florida outbreak could have limited health providers from labeling a death as being from the coronavirus, too, said Thomas Hladish, a researcher at the University of Florida’s Department of Biology and Emerging Pathogens Institute.To get an estimation of the share of Florida’s deaths spike that was due to the coronavirus, Hladish said there would need to be a baseline for what the actual pneumonia and influenza deaths were expected to be. The excess deaths after that could possibly illustrate deaths from the pandemic.“It is much more likely that deaths coded as pneumonia and influenza were actually COVID deaths,” Hladish said.Data shows that the Florida Department of Health has in its COVID-19 dashboard. For example, on April 13, the states’ dashboard showed only 92 dead in Broward County. Yet data obtained from the Broward County Medical Examiners’ Office shows that there were actually 120 deaths from COVID-19 in the county. Similar gaps between county medical examiner data and the state death reports were present on Friday, April 10, when the Sun Sentinel obtained lists of the dead from Miami-Dade, Palm Beach, and Broward counties.AdvertisementThe discrepancies have prompted questions and criticism from Florida’s Democratic congressional delegation. On April 15, U.S. Reps. Ted Deutch and Donna Shalala, along with 11 of their Florida Democratic congressional colleagues, wrote to Gov. DeSantis, questioning the “inconsistencies between COVID-19 death tracking methods used by the Florida Department of Health and county medical examiners.”The Sun Sentinel followed up with the State Department of Health for answers. It has yet to receive a reply. Advertisement

AdvertisementBy South Florida Sun SentinelApr 17, 2020 at 4:14 pmIt was midway through March and Florida’s peak flu season was winding down. Then a steep, sudden and alarming spike in pneumonia-related deaths appeared — signaling the arrival of a killer: the new coronavirus.Experts say the grim spike likely included coronavirus deaths recorded, instead, as pneumonia. And the timing could mean the virus was unchecked through Florida communities as early as late February, weeks before the state began taking social-distancing measures.AdvertisementThe state Department of Health would not...

Spike in pneumonia deaths in Florida shows an earlier, deadlier arrival of coronavirus, experts say

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