Name: Grim COVID-19 predictions for NH revised downward
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Grim COVID-19 predictions for NH revised downward

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You are the owner of this article.You have permission to edit this article.A university research organization has scaled back the dramatic predictions it made two weeks ago for COVID-19 deaths in New Hampshire.It now predicts only two people will die on the peak day the disease hits New Hampshire and that the state will have enough ICU and hospital beds.The by the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation also say the peak, initially forecast for April 21, will come April 15. A on the peak day of April 21; a total death toll of 337 in early August; and a shortage of ICU beds.IHME has received extensive media coverage since making its predictions. Its latest numbers, issued Sunday, acknowledge some uncertainty and say deaths on the peak day could reach as high as seven.State health officials continue to monitor the various COVID-19 predictions, said Jake Leon, a spokesman for the Department of Health and Human Services.“These models continue to change as scientists learn more about the virus. So while we still anticipate the surge will occur toward the end of April, we frequently review changes to models to inform our preparedness planning,” Leon said.He said the state has 1,700 surge beds on hand in addition to hospital surge beds.The Institute’s prediction for total New Hampshire COVID-19 deaths is now 32, with a range between 21 and 51. That will take place in early May, when the death toll completely flattens. The Institute foresees no shortage of ICU beds.On its website, the Institute said it made its revisions based on new data including:It incorporated data from Italy and Spain about the time between implementation of social distancing measures and peak deaths. Its initial prediction relied on data exclusively from Wuhan, China.It now gives different weights to the benefit of social distancing orders such as school closures, stay at home, and non-essential business closures.It incorporates the accuracy of predictions from the early days of its model.It acknowledges that model performance can be less consistent for states with very few total data points or few cumulative COVID-19 deaths.“Having more timely, high-quality data is vital for all modeling endeavors,” the Institute wrote.Meanwhile, 12 New Hampshire Ph.D.s and scientists wrote Gov. Chris Sununu on Sunday calling expanded testing, drive-through testing, antibody testing and digital contact tracing through cell phones.“Currently, people in New Hampshire are ‘advised’ to stay home if presenting COVID-19 symptoms, but their compliance with self-isolation is (highly suspect, frankly) not known or enforced,” reads a letter that is signed by former state Rep. Mindi Messmer; former state epidemiologist Richard Depentima; the head of surgery at Memorial Hospital in Conway, Dr. Victor Lazaron; and nine others.© Copyright 2022 , 100 William Loeb Drive Manchester, NH&nbsp;| &nbsp;|Powered by from .Sorry, an error occurred.You are logged in&nbsp;Sign up withThank you .Your account has been registered, and you are now logged in.Check your email for details.Sign in withSubmitting this form below will send a message to your email with a link to change your password.An email message containing instructions on how to reset your password has been sent to the e-mail address listed on your account.×Thank you.Your purchase was successful, and you are now logged in.Rate:Begins:Ends:Transaction ID:A receipt was sent to your email.This offer is currently unavailable.Close

You are the owner of this article.You have permission to edit this article.A university research organization has scaled back the dramatic predictions it made two weeks ago for COVID-19 deaths in New Hampshire.It now predicts only two people will die on the peak day the disease hits New Hampshire and that the state will have enough ICU and hospital beds.The by the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation also say the peak, initially forecast for April 21, will come April 15. A on the peak day of April 21; a total death toll of 337 in early August; and a...

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Mark Hayward New Hampshire Union Leader

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Grim COVID-19 predictions for NH revised downward

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