Name: We halted the global economy, and emissions still may only fall 4% this year
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We halted the global economy, and emissions still may only fall 4% this year

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You need to enable JavaScript to view this site.The global effort to halt the spread of the deadly coronavirus has stalled much the global economy, setting up an unintended experiment on the impact on carbon emissions. China’s GDP may have (on a ). The US’s GDP could drop anywhere from 30% to 50% by summer. And Britain’s economic output by 25% this quarter. The ardent hope is that economies will bounce back later in the year as the pandemic recedes, but annual output is still likely to decline in many nations. US GPD, for instance, may fall about 5%, . So what’s all that going to add up to in terms of global climate emissions? Maybe about a 4% decline in 2020, , based on an analysis of data sets that represent about three-quarters of worldwide emissions. That would be a larger annual decline than any previous economic recession or war managed to bring about, writes Simon Evans, deputy editor at the site. But it still underscores just how massive and challenging a job the world faces in cutting emissions fast and deep enough to combat climate change.To prevent 1.5 ˚C of warming, the world would need to cut emissions by 6% every year for the next decade. In other words, even after shutting down much of the economy for months, including global trade, travel, and construction, nations may still not decrease climate pollution enough this year to be on track to prevent that dangerous level of warming. And emissions will almost certainly rebound as soon as economies get back on track, . Indeed, China’s are already , a few months after the outbreak crested there. CarbonBrief is quick to stress that the 4% figure is a rough estimate based on limited data, and subject to change depending on how the outbreak unfolds and how economies react in the weeks and months to come. The relationship between economic declines and emissions dips will also depend on which industries are ultimately hit hardest, Evans notes. Hospitality and entertainment, for instance, could see greater losses than the more carbon-intensive power sector. But the finding underscores the limits of lifestyle changes and reductions in consumer demand, such as cutting down on car trips and plane travel, in ratcheting down emissions. It’s one more stark reminder that we need to fundamentally overhaul how we generate electricity, manufacture goods, produce food, and get around. General warming predictions are still on track, but recent heat waves are a stress test for the modeling of extreme events.The country is a leader in EV adoption, but extreme weather is exposing weaknesses in its charging infrastructure.The bill includes $369 billion in spending on climate and energy.Corporate climate plans are too often a mix of fuzzy math, flawed assumptions, and wishful thinking.Discover special offers, top stories,upcoming events, and more.

You need to enable JavaScript to view this site.The global effort to halt the spread of the deadly coronavirus has stalled much the global economy, setting up an unintended experiment on the impact on carbon emissions. China’s GDP may have (on a ). The US’s GDP could drop anywhere from 30% to 50% by summer. And Britain’s economic output by 25% this quarter. The ardent hope is that economies will bounce back later in the year as the pandemic recedes, but annual output is still likely to decline in many nations. US GPD, for instance, may fall about 5%, . So what’s all that going to add up to...

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Senior Editor at MIT Technology Review, where we care so much about technology it’s in the name twice. Covering climate change & clean energy.

James Temple

A media company making technology a greater force for good. Get our journalism: http://technologyreview.com/newsletters

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We halted the global economy, and emissions still may only fall 4% this year

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