Name: In one week, Missouri saw a 600% jump in coronavirus cases — the largest increase in the country
Brand: stltoday.com
SKU: stltoday-com-6
Availability: OnlineOnly

critic

In one week, Missouri saw a 600% jump in coronavirus cases — the largest increase in the country

preview

Sign up now to get the most recent coronavirus headlines and other important local and national news sent to your email inbox daily.Last chance! Subscribe with this special offer to keep readingLoading&amp;hellp;{{title}}{{description}}{{banner}}(renews at {{format_dollars}}{{start_price}}{{format_cents}}/month + tax){{tagline}}{{special_title}}{{html}}You are the owner of this article.You have permission to edit this article.© 2022 Lee EnterprisesShare ThisIn one week, Missouri saw a 600% jump in coronavirus cases — the largest increase in the countryShare thisA couple takes an evening stroll in front of the temporarily closed Hi-Pointe Theatre whose marquee shared a message to stay healthy during the on Wednesday, March 25, 2020. St. Louis Mayor Lyda Krewson and St. Louis County Executive Sam Page mandated residents stay home beginning Monday, with exceptions only for groceries, health care, and critical household duties, to slow the spread of the coronavirus. Photo by Laurie Skrivan,Hospital administrations show appreciation of their employees working on the frontline battling the coronavirus with a heartfelt sign on Wednesday, March 25, 2020, on the green space in front of SSM Health St. Mary's Hospital in St. Louis. Photo by Laurie Skrivan,Fewer cars than normal are visible around 6:10 p.m. on Interstate 64 from the Dogtown neighborhood on Tuesday, March 24, 2020, in St. Louis. The city and county declared a Stay at Home order effective Monday that encouraged residents to stay indoors to prevent the spread of coronavirus. Exceptions include outdoor exercise and visiting grocery stores and pharmacies. Photo by Lexi Browning,Site personnel check people in at a BJC HealthCare pre-registration coronavirus testing site in St. Louis on Tuesday, March 24, 2020. In order to get tested patients must receive a referral from a health care provider after pre-screening. Photo by Colter Peterson, .The St. Louis city flag flies over a desolate Washington Avenue on Sunday, March 22, 2020. St. Louis Mayor Lyda Krewson and St. Louis County Executive Sam Page mandated that residents stay home beginning Monday, with exceptions only for groceries, health care and critical household duties. Photo by Laurie Skrivan,ST. LOUIS — There is no sign of a dip in coronavirus cases in St. Louis or Missouri. The region’s caseload is rocketing upward, with the state seeing a more than 600% increase in total cases over the past week — the largest percentage increase in the country as of Thursday, according to data collected by Johns Hopkins University.And a lack of widespread testing largely means that experts aren’t sure when the region will reach the peak of its curve — clouding their ability to know when normal life might resume. They hope they will be able to better predict in coming days how much protective measures, like social distancing and widespread restrictions on public activities, are working.The spread of the virus in Missouri this past week stands out, even compared to neighbors. In Illinois, where the state is under lockdown, the number of confirmed cases grew by 237% in the same period.“The more we test right now, the more we’ll find,” said Chris Prener, a sociologist at St. Louis University.As of Thursday, Missouri’s per-capita rate for confirmed COVID-19 cases was 8.5 per 100,000 people. In Illinois, it was 20 per 100,000.“Testing is everything right now, and the lack of widespread testing is making it very hard to grasp what’s happening, particularly at the county levels,” Prener said.Mayor Lyda Krewson said Friday that if area residents continue to comply with stay-at-home orders and other restrictions, the regional spread of the coronavirus could slow by mid-to-late April. She said she talked with the heads of the area’s three major hospital systems Thursday.“They are all doing modeling for when will the peak hit,” she said. “They don’t know for sure.”“It just really depends on how much the stay-at-home order, how much it actually flattens the curve.”Infiltration of the virus here is catching up with infection rates seen in other states, erasing St. Louis’ geographic buffer, experts theorized. And increased testing has detected more cases.“Rapid growth of COVID cases in Missouri is rather a function of test availability and probably is not reflective of what true growth of (the) epidemic is,” said Dr. George Turabelidze, Missouri’s state public health epidemiologist.Still, recent events like Mardi Gras may have added fuel to the rising caseload. In New Orleans, for instance, the celebration is thought to have in the spread of the virus. Such large public events can multiply infections, many of which won’t be discovered for as many as 14 days, the time it can take for symptoms to appear.“The exponential growth isn’t going to be for two or three incubation periods,” said Tim Wiemken, a St. Louis University professor and infectious disease expert. “That’s what we’re seeing in New Orleans, is they’re just starting to see the huge bump.”Data could soon reveal the extent to which the virus is slowing or coming under control, as new infections are stemmed by social distancing and other precautions — at least at a national level.Wiemken and some colleagues are focused on mortality rates, suggesting that with scarce testing, they’re one of the clearest reflections of the disease and its most serious toll.Based on the progression of coronavirus death rates seen elsewhere around the globe, Wiemken is hopeful that the U.S. will get to the peak of its own curve soon — perhaps in the coming days — and will then see levels of the disease recede to a more manageable pace.In earlier outbreaks of the virus, the resulting death rates tended to rise and fall over about 30 days.Assuming that the U.S. will experience its own bell curve of the same length, the country is now about halfway through that window — meaning the national volume of deaths per day could soon crest and start to subside.“We’re still on the left third of the bell curve, currently. How long it takes to get to the plateau, hopefully that’s in the next week,” said Wiemken. “Locally, I have no idea.”The “attack rate” of the virus — which shows the proportion of the local population that is infected — offers another snapshot of risk. In the St. Louis region, for example, coronavirus currently infects about 1 in every 10,000 people, said Turabelidze. In New York City, it’s 15 times greater.Hospitalization rates are another vital area to track.“It will be very interesting to follow the curve of the hospitalizations over the next two to four weeks,” said Dr. Elvin Geng, a professor of medicine in Washington University’s Division of Infectious Diseases. “That may be some hint about where we are with the size of the underlying epidemic.”Turabelidze said the state, unlike regional hospitals, hasn’t produced a model “good enough” to predict the rise and fall of the virus in Missouri.“All these parameters are unpredictable, and therefore it’s very hard to have a model that we all agree is very accurate,” he said.Area researchers generally agreed.“We don’t know what’s going on,” said Wiemken. “It’s not even the tip of the iceberg of what we know. It’s like the tip of Jupiter.”Experts warn that deciphering the trajectory of coronavirus transmission in the region will be trickier than simply watching the overall total of confirmed cases. As more testing is done, it will be difficult to sort out how many new cases reflect transmission of the disease, and how many are the result of more widespread sampling.And when the shape of the curve comes into focus, it still won’t reflect the current level of the threat, thanks to the two- to 14-day lag time from when infection occurs and when symptoms show up.“When we perceive it, we’re behind,” said Dr. Gregory Storch, a pediatrics professor and infectious disease specialist at Washington University’s School of Medicine. “If we’re going by cases, we’re reacting to events that happened one to two weeks earlier, and that is a challenge.”From this stage forward, it’s all about minimizing the spread of the disease to as few people as possible, or what some call the basic reproductive rate of the virus.“If every case gives rise to less than one additional case, the epidemic will eventually burn out on its own,” said Geng. “But if each case gives rise to more than one, then the epidemic will propagate.”Multiple experts said the fight against the coronavirus, even if initially successful, could resemble more of a roller coaster over time, with later, smaller peaks and valleys.“There are gradations in the way we’ll go back to normal,” said Ana Santos Rutschman, a St. Louis University professor with a focus on health law. She says those plans need to be crafted well in advance by public health experts, and clearly communicated to the public.Before that “exit strategy” begins, there will also need to be safeguards in place, such as widespread testing capacity and ready-made plans to intervene again, if needed.“We’re going to be ready to push the button and get back to where we are now,” said Wiemken, who hopes that “tailored relaxing” of current restrictions can happen in the next 30 days or so. He warned against reopening things earlier.“There is light at the end of the tunnel if we can just keep this up a little bit longer,” said Wiemken. “If we ease up now, it will just keep spiking until everybody’s infected.”Sign up now to get the most recent coronavirus headlines and other important local and national news sent to your email inbox daily.He said it was disappointing when the county asked for 2,500 tests and the state shipped 25.A couple takes an evening stroll in front of the temporarily closed Hi-Pointe Theatre whose marquee shared a message to stay healthy during the on Wednesday, March 25, 2020. St. Louis Mayor Lyda Krewson and St. Louis County Executive Sam Page mandated residents stay home beginning Monday, with exceptions only for groceries, health care, and critical household duties, to slow the spread of the coronavirus. Photo by Laurie Skrivan,Hospital administrations show appreciation of their employees working on the frontline battling the coronavirus with a heartfelt sign on Wednesday, March 25, 2020, on the green space in front of SSM Health St. Mary's Hospital in St. Louis. Photo by Laurie Skrivan,Fewer cars than normal are visible around 6:10 p.m. on Interstate 64 from the Dogtown neighborhood on Tuesday, March 24, 2020, in St. Louis. The city and county declared a Stay at Home order effective Monday that encouraged residents to stay indoors to prevent the spread of coronavirus. Exceptions include outdoor exercise and visiting grocery stores and pharmacies. Photo by Lexi Browning,Site personnel check people in at a BJC HealthCare pre-registration coronavirus testing site in St. Louis on Tuesday, March 24, 2020. In order to get tested patients must receive a referral from a health care provider after pre-screening. Photo by Colter Peterson, .The St. Louis city flag flies over a desolate Washington Avenue on Sunday, March 22, 2020. St. Louis Mayor Lyda Krewson and St. Louis County Executive Sam Page mandated that residents stay home beginning Monday, with exceptions only for groceries, health care and critical household duties. Photo by Laurie Skrivan,{{title}}{{summary}}You don't have any notifications.Get up-to-the-minute news sent straight to your device.Topics

Sign up now to get the most recent coronavirus headlines and other important local and national news sent to your email inbox daily.Last chance! Subscribe with this special offer to keep readingLoading&amp;hellp;{{title}}{{description}}{{banner}}(renews at {{format_dollars}}{{start_price}}{{format_cents}}/month + tax){{tagline}}{{special_title}}{{html}}You are the owner of this article.You have permission to edit this article.© 2022 Lee EnterprisesShare ThisIn one week, Missouri saw a 600% jump in coronavirus cases — the largest increase in the countryShare thisA couple takes an evening...

In one week, Missouri saw a 600% jump in coronavirus cases — the largest increase in the country

No article scores yet.

CRITIC REVIEWS

PUBLIC REVIEWS