Name: What the final polls say about the Trump-Biden race
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What the final polls say about the Trump-Biden race

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Biden enters Election Day with a more comfortable lead than Hillary Clinton had four years ago.Joe Biden salutes supporters after speaking during a drive-in campaign rally at Lexington Technology Park on Nov. 02, 2020 in Pittsburgh, Pa. | Drew Angerer/Getty ImagesPresident Donald Trump is in a deeper hole heading into Election Day than he was four years ago, when he stunned Hillary Clinton and most of America.The final polls before the election, released on Monday, continued to show Joe Biden ahead in enough swing states to win. Some of the states are close, but the polls would have to be significantly more inaccurate than they were in 2016 for Trump to prevail.Here’s a state-by-state guide to the latest polls at the end of the election in 13 of the 14 states rated either as “Toss Ups,” “Lean Republican” or “Lean Democratic” in (minus Alaska, where there is little public polling):FiveThirtyEight average as of Monday evening: Biden +2.6FiveThirtyEight final 2016 “polls-only” forecast: Trump +2.42016 result: Trump +3.5Befitting its toss-up status, the final live-interview poll in Arizona, an l released Monday, showed a tied race in Arizona, 48 percent to 48 percent.Biden does lead in the polling average, however, as other late surveys have given him the edge, including a 6-point lead in a out on Sunday.FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +2.5FiveThirtyEight final 2016 “polls-only” forecast: Clinton +0.62016 result: Trump +1.2Biden enters the election about 2 points stronger than Clinton was in 2016, when Trump emerged with a 1-point victory.The final live-caller poll, from , showed Biden ahead by 5 points — though Quinnipiac Democrats in the state in the 2018 midterms.FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +1FiveThirtyEight final 2016 “polls-only” forecast: Trump +42016 result: Trump +5.1Georgia has raced away from Trump in the polls: He led by 4 points on the eve of the 2016 election and won by 5 — the rare state where Trump didn’t overperform significantly on Election Day.He and Biden are neck-and-neck now, with the Democrat a point ahead in the FiveThirtyEight average.FiveThirtyEight average: Trump +1.4FiveThirtyEight final 2016 “polls-only” forecast: Trump +2.92016 result: Trump +9.4The most promising news for Trump in the polls in the 72 hours before the election came from Iowa, where a showed the president ahead by 7 points.That’s out of line with the average, which showed a closer race. But the Register’s final poll was also better for Trump than the average in 2016 — and it was right.FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +8FiveThirtyEight final 2016 “polls-only” forecast: Clinton +4.22016 result: Trump +0.2Biden’s 8-point advantage in Michigan — the state Trump won by the narrowest margin in 2016 — is nearly twice Hillary Clinton’s pre-2016 lead.The live-interview polls in the final two weeks of the race gave Biden a lead between 7 and 12 points. They’d have to be way off for Trump to win there again.FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +9.4FiveThirtyEight final 2016 “polls-only” forecast: Clinton +5.82016 result: Clinton +1.5Trump’s narrow loss in Minnesota was an underrated surprise from 2016. But in order to make a real challenge there this year, he’d have to overcome a bigger Biden advantage of nearly 10 points.FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +4.8FiveThirtyEight final 2016 “polls-only” forecast: Clinton +1.82016 result: Clinton +2.4Nevada was another state where Trump didn’t overperform his polls in 2016. That makes his current 5-point deficit appear more daunting.FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +11.1FiveThirtyEight final 2016 “polls-only” forecast: Clinton +3.62016 result: Clinton +0.4Trump’s narrow 2016 loss in New Hampshire came after entering Election Day within 4 points in the polls. He’s down by at least twice that now: Two in-state academic pollsters showed Biden ahead by 8 points last week.FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +1.9FiveThirtyEight final 2016 “polls-only” forecast: Clinton +0.72016 result: Trump +3.6As in 2016, the polls are tight in North Carolina. There’s a slight gap between the live-interview polls — the final two, from and , showed Biden ahead by 6 points — and web surveys showing essentially a tied race.Trump out-ran his polls there in 2016, winning the state by almost 4 points. It was an early sign the night was breaking his way in a state where the polls close early (7:30 p.m. Eastern).FiveThirtyEight average: Trump +0.7FiveThirtyEight final 2016 “polls-only” forecast: Trump +1.92016 result: Trump +8.1This is the only one of the 13 states in this analysis where Trump currently leads in the polling average — even after a Quinnipiac poll out on Monday gave Biden a 4-point advantage.FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +4.8FiveThirtyEight final 2016 “polls-only” forecast: Clinton +3.72016 result: Trump +0.7Biden is in better shape than Clinton in the most-likely tipping-point state — but not by much. He’s ahead by around 5 points, just a little above Clinton’s nearly 4-point lead four years ago.Trump’s only leads are in surveys by two Republican pollsters, while the other surveys show Biden ahead — and, in a key difference from 2016, at or above 50 percent. That includes two surveys on Monday: an showing Biden ahead, 51 percent to 46 percent, and a showing similar numbers among its various turnout models.FiveThirtyEight average: Trump +1FiveThirtyEight final 2016 “polls-only” forecast: Trump +8.52016 result: Trump +9Unlike some of the core battlegrounds, polling in Texas has slowed down at the end of the election. But Trump is entering with only a 1-point lead — a troubling sign after he essentially matched his polls when he won the state by 9 points in 2016.FiveThirtyEight average: Biden +8.2FiveThirtyEight final 2016 “polls-only” forecast: Clinton +5.32016 result: Trump +0.8Of the Great Lakes battleground states Trump flipped in 2016, coronavirus-ravaged Wisconsin has been his weakest in public polling. The final New York Times/Siena College poll showed Biden ahead by 11 points — though Trump is a little closer in other surveys.

Biden enters Election Day with a more comfortable lead than Hillary Clinton had four years ago.Joe Biden salutes supporters after speaking during a drive-in campaign rally at Lexington Technology Park on Nov. 02, 2020 in Pittsburgh, Pa. | Drew Angerer/Getty ImagesPresident Donald Trump is in a deeper hole heading into Election Day than he was four years ago, when he stunned Hillary Clinton and most of America.The final polls before the election, released on Monday, continued to show Joe Biden ahead in enough swing states to win. Some of the states are close, but the polls would have to be...

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Steven Shepard

Politico, known originally as The Politico, is an American political journalism company based in Arlington County, Virginia, that covers politics and policy in the United States and internationally. It distributes content through its website, television, printed newspapers, radio, and podcasts. Its coverage in Washington, D.C. includes the U.S. Congress, lobbying, the media, and the presidency.

What the final polls say about the Trump-Biden race

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