Name: Comparing Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields to Baker Mayfield and Joe Burrow on a sure-thing scale: NFL Young QB rankings, Week 8
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Comparing Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields to Baker Mayfield and Joe Burrow on a sure-thing scale: NFL Young QB rankings, Week 8

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NEW!CLEVELAND, Ohio -- Certainty is the goal, but it’s not promised with young quarterbacks. We started this ranking system of all NFL starting quarterbacks who entered the league between 2016 and 2020 with Week 1 of this season. At that point, half the league starters qualified as young quarterbacks by our definition.As we check in again for Week 8 after a two-week break, two of those quarterbacks have been benched: Chicago’s Mitch Trubisky and Washington’s Dwayne Haskins. One, Dallas star Dak Prescott, was lost to a devastating season-ending injury. Two rookies have risen up and claimed starting jobs: Justin Herbert with the Chargers in Week 2 and Tua Tagovailoa with Miami this week. At least four others -- Philadelphia’s Carson Wentz, Denver’s Drew Lock, and the New York duo of the Jets’ Sam Darnold and the Giants' Daniel Jones -- have struggled enough at times to leave their fans with serious questions about whether they’re long-term answers.Depending on your view of this Browns season, some may have eyed Baker Mayfield through that same questioning lens at times -- or maybe still do. Two others on this week’s list -- Gardner Minshew in Jacksonville and the Haskins replacement in D.C, Kyle Allen, are pretty clearly placeholders for a future draft pick.That means we have a list of 17 young quarterbacks this week, but only nine are free of questions.One of those nine is Cincinnati rookie Joe Burrow. He’s getting beaten up weekly with the Bengals, but considering his lack of protection, and the skill he’s shown in tough spots, I’m not joking in saying you could rank him third on this list right now, behind Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, if you were so inclined. Give him better talent and coaching, and he might be a win-now quarterback the way Ben Roethlisberger was while going 13-0 as a Year 1 starter in Pittsburgh.You know who also might be that way? Trevor Lawrence in 2021 ... and maybe Justin Fields as well.Patience with a young quarterback is built into the process and is one of the ways franchises give high picks a chance. The QBs don’t have to look over their shoulders, because while expectations raise the stakes, they also lower the heat. It’s hard to bail on a top-10 quarterback with upside in the first couple years.But there’s also an opportunity cost to that. A bad team struggling with a high pick at quarterback who is so far a “maybe” might pass up a “yes” quarterback in the process. The Bengals look like they grabbed a “yes.” Is anyone surprised by Burrow, who showed this mix of athleticism, mobility, accuracy and pocket presence at LSU last season? He’s got the size, the arm and the smarts, and it shows.There might be two more “yes” guys on the horizon in Clemson’s Lawrence and Ohio State’s Fields, both elite recruits who have adapted to the college game in every way with their heads, arms, legs and leadership.Lawrence is currently sidelined after a positive COVID-19 diagnosis, and the only issue that matters for him right now is his health. When he’s back on a football field, he’ll continue a trend that’s been headed the same direction since he led the Tigers to the national title as a freshman after he was the No. 1 recruit in the Class of 2018.The current draft order for 2021 goes Jets, Giants, Jacksonville, and while the Jaguars are ready to turn Minshew into a backup, the Jets would be giving up on Darnold, the No. 3 pick in 2018, while the Giants might be forced into second thoughts on Jones, the No. 6 pick in 2019.Given the first half of this season, and their markets, how could either New York franchise pass up future stars like Lawrence and Fields?There’s a smaller version of this discussion that applies to the Browns, but much less so given the way Mayfield played last weekend. Lots of franchises aren’t sure about their quarterbacks, but what happens when you might have a chance to increase your certainty? The Browns, now winners, won’t have that chance, not where they will be picking in 2021. That lower draft spot changes any Cleveland QB conversation, and it enhances the reasons to give Mayfield time to make the Browns certain.But the Giants and the Jets are both a mess. They want a Mahomes or a Jackson or a Burrow or a Deshaun Watson, and they currently have a Jones and a Darnold.Lawrence and Fields have been compared since they played high school ball 20 minutes apart in Georgia, were the top two recruits in 2018 and then met in the College Football Playoff semifinal in the Fiesta Bowl last year. Getting picked by the two New York teams? It could make perfect season for two lost franchises currently awash in quarterback uncertaintyThe Bengals are bad, too. But they have no doubt who their quarterback is going to be.Past Young QB rankingsWeek 5 ranking: 1PFF ranking among these QBs: No. 4Career record as a starter: 30-8Sure thing rating on 1-10 scale: 102020 average game: 23-of-35 for 271 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions, plus 24 rushing yards.This week: vs. N.Y. Jets, 1 p.m. Sunday.Week 5 ranking: 2PFF ranking among these QBs: No. 5Career record as a starter: 24-4Sure thing rating on 1-10 scale: 8.5, just because he’s such a rare player and is only 28 starts into his career.2020 average game: 17-of-27 for 189 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions, plus 58 rushing yards.This week: vs. Pittsburgh, 1 p.m. Sunday.Week 5 ranking: 3PFF ranking among these QBs: No. 2Career record as a starter: 42-27Sure thing rating on 1-10 scale: 9, and if he recovers from his season-ending surgery on his broken ankle and returns to form next year, he’s a 10.2020 average game: 30-for-44 for 371 yards with two touchdowns and one interception, plus 19 rushing yards.This week: at Philadelphia, 8:20 p.m. Sunday, but Prescott is out for the year and will eventually fall off this list.Week 5 ranking: 4PFF ranking among these QBs: No. 1Career record as a starter: 25-19Sure thing rating on 1-10 scale: 9.5 for a guy who’s getting as little help as Burrow and saw his coach/GM fired in this middle of this season.2020 average game: 24-for-34 for 299 yards with two touchdowns and one interception, plus 21 rushing yards.This week: Texans are off.Week 5 ranking: 8PFF ranking among these QBs: No. 10Career record as a starter: 1-5-1Sure thing rating on 1-10 scale: 92020 average game: 28-of-42 for 289 yards with one touchdown and one interception, plus 17 rushing yards.This week: vs. Tennessee, 1 p.m. Sunday.Week 5 ranking: 6PFF ranking among these QBs: No. 7Career record as a starter: 10-12-1Sure thing rating on 1-10 scale: 82020 average game: 24-of-36 for 264 yards with two touchdowns and one interception, plus 64 rushing yards.This week: Cardinals are off.Week 5 ranking: 5PFF ranking among these QBs: No. 3Career record as a starter: 20-14Sure thing rating on 1-10 scale: 6, as Allen has cooled off the last three weeks while facing tougher competition after a hot start. The Bills have scored four touchdowns the last three weeks, after putting up 16 in the first four weeks.2020 average game: 25-of-37 for 288 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions, plus 29 rushing yards.This week: vs. New England, 1 p.m. Sunday.Week 5 ranking: 7PFF ranking among these QBs: No. 6Career record as a starter: 38-23Sure thing rating on 1-10 scale: 6.52020 average game: 22-of-32 for 256 yards with two touchdowns and one interception, plus six rushing yards.This week: at Miami, 1 p.m. Sunday.Week 5 ranking: 10PFF ranking among these QBs: No. 9Career record as a starter: 1-4Sure thing rating on 1-10 scale: 5, because he’s a rookie and there are a lot of reasons for hope so far and no one is looking for red flags yet. So he hangs in the middle, but he’s been very good.2020 average game: 25-of-37 for 309 yards with two touchdowns and one interception, plus 24 rushing yards.This week: at Denver, 4:05 p.m. Sunday.Week 5 ranking: 9PFF ranking among these QBs: No. 12Career record as a starter: 17-19Sure thing rating on 1-10 scale: 4.5, because this is about certainty and there isn’t a lot of that around Mayfield yet, though there absolutely is possibility and some renewed hope.2020 average game: 18-of-28 for 199 yards with two touchdowns and one interception, plus five rushing yards.This week: vs. Las Vegas, 1 p.m. Sunday.Week 5 ranking: Not rankedPFF ranking among these quarterbacks: Making first start this weekCareer record as a starter: 0-0Sure thing rating on 1-10 scale: 5 as a rookie who hasn’t started. It’s a guess on where to drop him into these rankings before he plays. But he might have been in the running to be the No. 1 pick if he didn’t get hurt at Alabama last season, and the Dolphins have just been waiting to unleash him. The franchise has every bit of confidence in him, and he could make a major sure-thing jump soon.2020 average game: None yet.This week: vs. L.A. Rams, 1 p.m. Sunday.Week 5 ranking: 11PFF ranking among these QBs: No. 13Career record as a starter: 34-28-1Sure thing rating on 1-10 scale: 4, in a season where he’s been all over the place, but has rebounded a bit lately.2020 average game: 23-of-40 for 251 yards with one touchdown and one interception, plus 26 rushing yards.This week: vs. Dallas, 8:20 p.m. Sunday.Week 5 ranking: 12PFF ranking among these QBs: No. 15Career record as a starter: 11-20Sure thing rating on 1-10 scale: 2, for a guy who’s still only 23 but hasn’t stayed healthy and hasn’t been good.2020 average game: 19-of-32 for 182 yards with one touchdown and one interception, plus 23 rushing yards.This week: at Kansas City, 1 p.m. Sunday.Week 5 ranking: 14PFF ranking among these QBs: No. 8Career record as a starter: 4-15Sure thing rating on 1-10 scale: 2.5, while struggling with turnovers on a losing team that might be running out of patience.2020 average game: 20-of-33 for 201 yards with one touchdown and one interception, plus 42 rushing yards.This week: vs. Tampa Bay, 8:15 p.m. Sunday.Week 5 ranking: 13PFF ranking among these QBs: No. 11Career record as a starter: 7-12Sure thing rating on 1-10 scale: 1, as a nice story at times, he’s a backup playing starter snaps out of necessity for a season.2020 average game: 25-of-38 for 265 yards with two touchdowns and one interception, plus 17 rushing yards.This week: Jaguars are off.Week 5 ranking: Not rankedPFF ranking among these quarterbacks: No. 15Career record as a starter: 5-4Sure thing rating on 1-10 scale: 2, because it doesn’t seem like this is gonna happen.2020 average game: 14-of-26 for 170 yards with no touchdowns and one interception.This week: vs. L.A. Chargers, 4:05 p.m. Sunday.Week 5 ranking: Not rankedPFF ranking among these quarterbacks: No. 14Career record as a starter: 7-9Sure thing rating on 1-10 scale: 1, because I don’t really want to put him on this list, but he technically fits since he entered the NFL as an undrafted free agent in 2018. Classic long-time backup career ahead.2020 average game: 18-of-27 for 183 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions, plus nine rushing yards.This week: Washington is off.COULD BE ADDED (OR ADDED AGAIN) TO THE LIST AT SOME POINT: Mitch Trubisky in Chicago; Dwayne Haskins in Washington.FULL SURE-THING RATINGS, IN ORDER10: Patrick Mahomes9.5: Deshaun Watson9: Dak Prescott, Joe Burrow8.5: Lamar Jackson8: Kyler Murray6.5: Jared Goff6: Josh Allen5: Justin Herbert, Tua Tagovailoa4.5: Baker Mayfield4: Carson Wentz2.5: Daniel Jones2: Sam Darnold, Drew Lock1: Gardner Minshew, Kyle AllenNew Browns face masks for sale: Buy Browns gear: , , ,More Browns coverageNote to readers: if you purchase something through one of our affiliate links we may earn a commission.

NEW!CLEVELAND, Ohio -- Certainty is the goal, but it’s not promised with young quarterbacks. We started this ranking system of all NFL starting quarterbacks who entered the league between 2016 and 2020 with Week 1 of this season. At that point, half the league starters qualified as young quarterbacks by our definition.As we check in again for Week 8 after a two-week break, two of those quarterbacks have been benched: Chicago’s Mitch Trubisky and Washington’s Dwayne Haskins. One, Dallas star Dak Prescott, was lost to a devastating season-ending injury. Two rookies have risen up and claimed...

Comparing Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields to Baker Mayfield and Joe Burrow on a sure-thing scale: NFL Young QB rankings, Week 8

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