Name: Will women voters turn Seminole blue in a presidential year?
Brand: orlandosentinel.com
SKU: orlandosentinel-com-147
Availability: OnlineOnly

critic

Will women voters turn Seminole blue in a presidential year?

preview

AdvertisementBy Orlando SentinelOct 05, 2020 at 5:35 amThe suburban women of Seminole County may hold the keys to the White House and a slate of crucial state races.Women voters outnumber men by more than 26,000 and make up more than half of the electorate in the community just north of Orlando. That has helped transform Seminole, a once-reliable Republican stronghold, into one of the most important swing counties in the country’s most important swing state during this year’s presidential election.AdvertisementThe gender gap is also visible on the ballot itself, as Democrats have fielded female candidates in the contests for each of the county’s four seats in the Florida Legislature — one Senate race and three House races, each of which pits a Democratic woman against a Republican man in showdowns that could tilt the balance of power in Tallahassee.Democrats and those registered without a party affiliation now make up 65% of women voters there, a change that is visible not just on the voter rolls, but in yards and the ads flooding mailboxes, too.AdvertisementKatie Seymour, who lives in Lake Mary, one of several towns in the county known for neatly planned subdivisions, office parks and high-performing public schools, said she sees just as many Biden-Harris signs this year while walking her dogs as signs for President Trump, a stark change from the past.“I think everybody is very aware of the importance of Seminole County and the I-4 corridor,” said Seymour, who is 63. “Frankly, that’s why we’re volunteering.”Seymour, a lifelong Democrat, and her husband Thad Seymour, Jr., who retired as UCF’s interim president in April, are making phone calls for Joe Biden’s campaign and plan to volunteer as poll watchers.But Bertica Cabrera Morris, a longtime Republican advisor who is now working with Latinos for Trump, said women are focused on the economy, which she said will play in Trump’s favor.“I think the issues of the country are the issues of the country,” said Cabrera Morris, who lives in downtown Orlando.White female voters in suburban and outlying areas are a hot commodity in this election. Both parties are seeking to get those votes.Overall, Republicans outnumber Democrats by about 1,000 and voters without a party make up more than a quarter of 326,813 total registered voters, according to the most recent data available from the state Division of Elections.Though the battleground county has attracted more people of color in recent years, Seminole is still whiter and richer than other Central Florida counties that more consistently vote Democrat, such as Orange and Osceola.White women make up about a third of the electorate in Seminole, which voted for Trump in 2016 and hasn’t swung toward a Democratic presidential candidate in at least 40 years. Also in 2016, Democrat Stephanie Murphy unseated Republican John Mica for a congressional seat that covers all of Seminole and northern Orange counties, an upset that now seems a harbinger of what was to come.In just the four years since then, the share of white women who are registered as Republicans in Seminole has dropped from 48% to 45%. Now, 31% of white women voters are registered as Democrats, up from 29% in 2016 and 23% are registered without party affiliation, up from 21%.AdvertisementMore evidence of that shift came in 2018 when Democrat Andrew Gillum edged out Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis by 1.8 percentage points in the county.“White female voters in suburban and outlying areas are a hot commodity in this election,” said Aubrey Jewett, an associate professor of political science at the University of Central Florida. “Both parties are seeking to get those votes.”Whichever party is most successful could also reap the spoils up and down the ballot.Across Florida, women could gain as many as nine seats in the state Senate and 25 seats in the House, which would build on the momentum just two years ago when a historic number of women were elected across the country during the mid-terms. Four of those races are playing out in Seminole.Among the most contested is District 9 for the state Senate, an open seat where former Republican House member Jason Brodeur is up against Democrat and labor attorney Patricia Sigman.“Pre-2016, a district like SD9 would never be on Democratic radar as a pickup opportunity,” wrote Matthew Isbell , a political analysis website. “Seminole County has long been a solid red suburb ... But like many suburbs across America, the mood is rapidly changing.”AdvertisementHe noted that the GOP is helped because the district also includes a portion of west Volusia County, which is more solidly Republican.But there’s little evidence Brodeur’s campaign, which did not respond to questions, feels at all comfortable in the new Seminole landscape. A tied to a Republican attorney attacked Sigman in the primary as not progressive enough in an attempt to knock her off the ballot before November, though she still easily won the primary. Brodeur and his PAC have raised nearly $4 million for this year’s race, and the party has spent an unspecified amount on TV ads and numerous mailers. In those ads, Brodeur has been leaning heavily on an endorsement from Attorney General Ashley Moody, the state’s highest-ranking Republican woman.Sigman, who could not be reached for this story, has raised more than $1 million.Two other Democratic women are challenging Republican incumbents, both men, for Florida House seats in Seminole.A woman has not been elected to either of the two House seats that represent the majority of Seminole nor the county’s only Florida Senate seat since the last statewide redistricting occurred in 2012, noted Pasha Baker, who is running in House District 28, which includes eastern Seminole County.“We are all trying to shatter a glass ceiling, but also give women a voice they have never had,” said Baker, 39. She and her committee have raised just more than $80,000.AdvertisementHer opponent, Rep. David Smith, R-Winter Springs, downplayed the role of gender in determining the outcome of his race.“I think it would be unfortunate if any citizen cast their vote based solely on gender or race,” Smith wrote in an email. "And any candidate that relies on a campaign strategy of race and gender is likely not the best and most qualified candidate. "Smith and his PAC have raised $470,551 and ads supporting him are flooding voters' mailboxes.But Tracey Kagan, a Democrat who is running to represent Florida House District 29 in west Seminole, said she thinks women are particularly motivated to vote because they’re worried about the pandemic and about how Trump’s nomination of Amy Coney Barrett to the U.S. Supreme Court could affect their reproductive rights and the future of the Affordable Care Act. Plus, she said, they might see voting as “retaliation for being robbed of Hillary Clinton” four years ago.“We came so close to having a woman as president and we look at other countries like New Zealand that are run by strong women and their countries are succeeding,” said Kagan, 58.She is challenging longtime state Rep. Scott Plakon and said if more women win down-ballot races that could help them win in the future at the statewide and national levels, too. Kagan and her PAC have raised $233,968, while Plakon and his committee have just more than $296,000.AdvertisementAt the south end of the county, Rep. Joy Goff-Marcil, D-Maitland, is trying to ward off a challenge from Republican Bob Cortes to represent House District 30, which also includes a portion of north-central Orange County. Goff-Marcil has raised $92,291, while Cortes and his PAC have contributions totaling $200,425.WeeklyGet latest updates political news from Central Florida and across the state. &gt; And there’s a partisan battle-of-the-sexes dynamic on the ballot in both of Central Florida’s other most competitive legislative elections, too: House District 44, which covers western and southwestern Orange County, where Rep. Geraldine Thompson, D-Orlando, faces a challenge from Republican businessman Bruno Portigliatti, and House District 42, where Democrat Barbara Cady and Republican Fred Hawkins are vying for an open seat that stretches across parts of Osceola and Polk counties.Even Trump has made personal appeals to the suburbs, tweeting about “suburban women” and “suburban housewives” over the summer. During Tuesday’s debate, Trump claimed “our suburbs would be gone” under Biden’s leadership, with Biden firing back that Trump "wouldn’t know a suburb unless he took a wrong turn.”Florida is still in play for both presidential candidates. In mid-September, a CBS News poll showed Biden leading Trump by two points in Florida — within the margin of error — with 97% of voters saying their support for either candidate was unlikely to change.But women are breaking for Biden by a 51-42 margin, according to the poll. Trump had planned to visit Seminole on Friday, rallying supporters at Orlando Sanford International Airport, but canceled after he and the First Lady tested positive for coronavirus. Last month, Biden made a campaign stop at a Hispanic Heritage Month event in Kissimmee.“More broadly, what the polls show is that college-educated white voters are a little less likely to support Trump than previous Republicans,” Jewett said. “Seminole County is a little more educated and a little more wealthy than other areas,” he added, which could signal trouble for the president there.AdvertisementData specialist Adelaide Chen contributed to this report.; Advertisement

AdvertisementBy Orlando SentinelOct 05, 2020 at 5:35 amThe suburban women of Seminole County may hold the keys to the White House and a slate of crucial state races.Women voters outnumber men by more than 26,000 and make up more than half of the electorate in the community just north of Orlando. That has helped transform Seminole, a once-reliable Republican stronghold, into one of the most important swing counties in the country’s most important swing state during this year’s presidential election.AdvertisementThe gender gap is also visible on the ballot itself, as Democrats have fielded...

Will women voters turn Seminole blue in a presidential year?

No article scores yet.

CRITIC REVIEWS

PUBLIC REVIEWS