Name: Slap shots, wristers and deflections: Who are the best finishers in hockey?
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Slap shots, wristers and deflections: Who are the best finishers in hockey?

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Aug 19, 2020Scoring goals is hard work. In hockey, you miss 91 percent of the shots you take and even the best of the best only convert on one-in-five of their chances. It’s why the league’s most captivating players are often the ones that make scoring goals look easy, like they’re out for Sunday morning shinny rather than playing in the majors.A goal is the single most exciting moment in a hockey game and we wanted to highlight some of the players who do it best in a variety of ways. That’s made easy with the help of Micah McCurdy, site-runner for and the king of hockey visualizations in general. His colourful data swirls are omnipresent on hockey Twitter and late last week he delivered what may be his finest work: an offensive zone graphic that shows a player’s finishing ability by location, broken up by shot type.⬡⬢⬡ New HockeyViz ⬢⬡⬢"Finishing" charts for shooters and "Saving" charts for goalies.See which parts of the ice are strengths and weaknesses, broken out by shot type.— Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath)The charts are available for all players going back to 2007-08 to all Hockey Viz subscribers at the $5 per month level, via the site’s .The chart is broken up into four quadrants and compares how many goals each player scored with each shot type to based on where the shot was taken, plus a few other features like whether the shot was a “rush” or “rebound” shot. It’s a simple, yet illustrative concept – one that can highlight a player’s shooting strengths in a very elegant way.So who are the NHL’s best finishers? That depends on what shot they’re taking.The Gold Standard:Goals: 128 /&nbsp;Expected: 88.9Before getting to the best of the past season in each section, I figured it would be prudent to look over which players have been the best over the past five seasons to add further contextual validity to the data.For wrist/snap shots – the most oft-used tool in a player’s arsenal – it’s the deadly accurate Nikita Kucherov leading the way, besting by two goals over expected. Over the past five seasons, Kucherov is third in goals with 183 with 70 percent of those coming from his wrist shot. While the two players ahead of him, and , actually have more wrist-shot goals, they do so thanks to heavy volume, scoring nearly 140, but doing so on around 120 expected goals. Kucherov doesn’t shoot as often as those two, but when he does he makes it count with pinpoint precision.Russia has a history of producing scoring wingers, guys who can snipe from range. At the moment, Artemi Panarin might be the best Russian player in hockey, but “sniper” might not be the first word that comes to mind. Panarin is a playmaker first and foremost usually having twice as many assists as he has goals, but he’s still been good for around 30 goals. This year though he set a career-high with 32 which would’ve been a 38-goal pace over a full season. Goalies have to start respecting his shot more because when he wants to he can rip it from range.Panarin elevating his goal-scoring made his entire game more dangerous and his weapon of choice was the wrist/snap shot where he scored 27 of his 32 goals. But going through his reel this season made it clear there weren’t many other goals like the one he scored against Edmonton – not like other sharpshooters anyways.A look at his shot chart tells a similar story as Panarin’s proficiency mostly comes below the dots and that’s when it’s important to remember the NHL’s data limitations. While other shot types are clear as day wrist/snap shots are generally a catch-all for any shot that doesn’t neatly fit in other categories. That means a long-range rip will be placed in the same bucket as a greasy shot that was shovelled in (not that necessarily applies to Panarin). The other issue is pre-shot movement and that’s perhaps the bigger issue with labelling Panarin as an elite finisher. By our current definition he certainly qualifies, but a look through his goals shows the Rangers’ system in action with a massive emphasis on getting the goalie moving laterally. A lot of Panarin’s goals come after a pass that crosses the royal road giving Panarin a much better chance than what public expected goals models suggest. He deserves credit for burying them, but the degree above expected may be overstated.His goal on Feb. 13, is a pretty perfect example as the puck crosses the centre of the ice twice before getting to Panarin who makes no mistake with a great wrister.That’s a great shot, no question, but according to the at Hockey Viz (another great tool worth your time), a shot from the left dot has around a four-to-five percent chance of turning into a goal. With the amount of net Panarin had to shoot at, his attempt is probably a fair bit likelier.That doesn’t mean the model or shot charts are worthless, it just means some proper context is warranted in certain situations – especially in a catch-all category like wrist/snap shots. Panarin had a lot of goals that came off pretty passing plays (often ones he started) this season that make him a slightly less impressive finisher than shown here, but it still takes incredible talent to finish those plays as often as he does. We’ve all bemoaned the stone hands grinder who whiffed on a perfect chance. Panarin doesn’t, he knows how to put the puck in the net. He’s money, and that showed this season. His 11.4 goals above expected from wrist/snap shots were a top-five mark over the last five seasons. Even if you factor in pre-shot movement, that’s still incredibly impressive.The Gold Standard:Goals: 53Expected: 26.6This should surprise no one considering how often he’s won the hardest shot at the NHL All-Star Game. Shea Weber has an absolute howitzer from the point and he isn’t afraid to use his hard, heavy shot to terrify every player standing between him and the goalie. For most defenceman, a shot from 60-feet out is generally ill-advised due to its low probability of converting, but that’s not the case with Weber who turns it into an asset thanks to his shot’s rare combination of power and accuracy. Over the last five years he’s doubled up on what’s expected of him and has scored on 8.3 percent of his unblocked attempts, an absurd attempt given the range he’s firing the shots from. , Alex Ovechkin and are up there too for slap-shot goals, but the distance Weber converts from makes his efforts more impressive.David Pastrnak’s shot is ridiculous and though he wasn’t far off the top among best wrist/snap shot finishers, it wasn’t even close among slap shots. Pastrnak was at the top by a mile, doubling the goals above expected of the next best player – which was surprisingly . Over the last five years it’s second to only Ovechkin’s 2018-19 season.Pastrnak led all NHLers this year with 15 slap shot goals besting Ovechkin by three, but what makes his efforts even more impressive is the degree of difficulty as he only took 97 unblocked attempts and was only expected to score six. That’s about as many expected goals as Shea Weber this year who scored five fewer goals off his slap shot.While a lot is made about Ovechkin’s power-play prowess, it’s safe to say at this point that the torch has been passed to Pastrnak who has finished second and first in goals-per-60 over the last two seasons, finishing with the third and seventh-best seasons since 2007-08. At 4.6 goals-per-60, no player – not even Ovechkin – has had a more dominant two-year run on the power play than Pastrnak. He has scored nearly a goal more than , the next best player and almost two more than Ovechkin in that time frame.The reason is Pastrnak’s one-timer from a familiar spot at the left circle. To be honest, it might as well be his spot now and he’s made teams pay with a hard, heavy, and most importantly accurate slap shot that few goalies have any business saving. It took all of five seconds for the to make the pay here.There are a lot of goals from this year that look just like that as Pastrnak has made the entire left side of the ice his domain. No one in the league can match Pastrnak’s one-timer right now, but sometimes he doesn’t need help from another Bruin deftly putting a puck right in his wheelhouse. See that red area on the right side of the ice? On a couple of occasions, Pastrnak was able to waltz into the zone and beat a goalie clean with a clapper off the rush. Again, it’s who gets victimized.You don’t see too many goals like that these days, a pure slap shot after taking a few strides in from the blue line that goes cross-body to the long side. Goalies are too good and those are usually easy saves. Not when Pastrnak is taking them though.The Gold Standard:Goals: 34Expected: 16.9Believe it or not, the answer isn’t Crosby – not over the last five seasons anyways. There’s lore surrounding Crosby’s backhand, from his curve to his highlight reel markers, but over the time frame Brad Marchand has actually scored seven more backhand goals than Crosby and has done so on fewer expected goals. A lot of that damage came between 2015 and 2018 where 26 percent of his goals were backhanders.Now, there’s a reason Crosby has the reputation he does and that’s because of the range his backhand has. We’ve all seen the highlight reels and while Marchand has fewer of those goals on his reel, he has a lengthy mixtape of in-tight dangles that end with a backhand-shelf finish. He’s one of the league’s very best at lifting the puck in very close quarters and finding the roof of the net – something even the best goal scorers sometimes struggle with. It’s an art-form that Marchand has mastered. There’s not a lot of room on this one.Surprised to see Anthony Beauvillier here? So was a couple of weeks ago when beat him from the goal line. Granted, most goalies should stop that shot, but the key to the backhand is the element of surprise and Beauvillier can get great velocity on his backhanders combined with elite placement to shock goalies.Beauvillier is far from a household name and only scored 18 goals this past season, but nearly half of those were credited as backhands. He tied for the league lead with eight this season meaning a full 44 percent of his goals this season were on the backhand. That’s impressive, even more so by the fact he was only expected to score 2.8 goals. That’s a combination of great finishing and luck that puts him ahead of Coleman who was expected to notch 3.7. His finishing prowess on the backhand was the third-best of any season over the last five years, sandwiched between Marchand’s three best seasons mentioned above.For backhanders, it’s almost always about the great finish in tight and that’s evident from the shot chart. Beauvillier had a few of those this year, none prettier than the one he notched against the on Dec. 2.It’s every player’s dream to get sprung from the penalty box for a breakaway and here Beauvillier makes no mistake going backhand-shelf, a classic breakaway staple that isn’t easy to pull off against an NHL netminder – getting that quick and explosive lift on the backhand in tight is tough. Beauvillier makes it look easy though and doesn’t even need to sell the initial shot that hard because his backhand is that good.Beauvillier had a few of those goals this season, but what might sell you on his backhand is his goal on Feb. 4, against the . Some quick puck movement allows Beauvillier to find a gap in coverage to streak in, but with a Stars defender’s stick in the lane his only option is to continue backhand against a big who has the high short side covered – a sweet spot for lefties on the backhand. Beauvillier opts to take a cross-body shot with his backhand to the opposite corner instead and finds twine.To even think about pulling that off on a moment’s notice, scoring on the only option presented to you – the hardest one Bishop could have given him – takes a special kind of skill. That is an extremely difficult shot to execute, one that needs the right timing, instinct and backhand ability to finish, plus a quick release. Beauvillier showed it all off in a split second.The Gold Standard:Goals: 30Expected: 16.9There was another name you probably expected to see here: , the king of deflections. Two things are working against him here: his past season with Dallas where he struggled to replicate his San Jose success, and the sheer volume of deflection attempts he’s had. Once a player earns a reputation it becomes more of a focal point of a team’s strategy and that allows more opportunity for that player to build upon it. If it continues to work, why stop?Pavelski leads all players in tip-in goals with 40, but he also leads in tip-in attempts by an insane margin with 362. That’s led to 34.6 expected goals, meaning Pavelski hasn’t scored that many more goals than you’d expect given his volume.Gabriel Landeskog has been a lot more efficient, scoring only 10 fewer goals on nearly 20 fewer expected goals. A Landeskog deflection is almost twice as likely to go in compared to an average one and it doesn’t seem like he has much of a reputation for his proficiency there – mostly because he doesn’t do it very often. In 2018-19 he upped his frequency though, especially being the net-front presence on a strong Colorado power play. He was especially efficient in the role, scoring over one-third of his goals off deflections. That season was rated as the best over the last five years. Landeskog does an excellent job of getting in between the shooter and the goalie and has a great touch, plus some absurd hand-eye coordination to finish the job. It doesn’t seem to matter if the defender knocks him down either.Auston Matthews is one of the game’s premier goal scorers. Everyone knows about his deceptive wrister that fools goalies with great regularity and most are aware he upped his game this season by developing a pretty lethal one-timer, but he’s got one more tool in the box: some deft deflection ability. Only one other player, with 11, scored on more tip-ins than Matthews’ eight this year, but Matthews had 54 percent fewer expected goals from tips.Matthews probably isn’t the first name that comes to mind when it comes to deflections, but he has a strong eye for the puck, a goal-scoring instinct that knows no bounds and command over his stick like few others. His hand-eye coordination is absurd and he also has a big body that allows him to lock into position in front of the net – two key elements to becoming a tip-in wizard. He’s not posted up in front of the net as often as others because he has other deadly weapons at his disposal that make him more dangerous elsewhere, but when he finds himself in tight he can make magic happen.In looking at his reel from this season, two goals spring to mind that show his high-level skill at redirecting pucks. On Nov. 15, against Boston, launches a quick one-timer that looks to be headed for the corner that Matthews somehow manages to get his stick on just under the crossbar to completely alter its trajectory. Few hockey players would even think to redirect that, let alone have the skill to knock it down through the five-hole.Where it lands is probably more luck than anything, but the act of contorting the stick to have it land in that direction is the key skill that makes Matthews so good at tipping pucks in the net.A couple of weeks before that he had another impressive redirection against Washington, establishing strong body position to the shooter and then calling for the tip before the shot. put it exactly where Matthews wanted it and then redirected it through his own legs into the top corner.No goalie is stopping that and it’s what makes Matthews one of the league’s best goal scorers – he can beat you any way he wants.Video via Shayna GoldmanData via Hockey Viz(Top photo of Shea Weber: Francois Lacasse/NHLI via Getty Images)

Aug 19, 2020Scoring goals is hard work. In hockey, you miss 91 percent of the shots you take and even the best of the best only convert on one-in-five of their chances. It’s why the league’s most captivating players are often the ones that make scoring goals look easy, like they’re out for Sunday morning shinny rather than playing in the majors.A goal is the single most exciting moment in a hockey game and we wanted to highlight some of the players who do it best in a variety of ways. That’s made easy with the help of Micah McCurdy, site-runner for and the king of hockey visualizations in...

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Dom Luszczyszyn

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Slap shots, wristers and deflections: Who are the best finishers in hockey?

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