Name: Trump wants to deliver a coronavirus vaccine by January. Even if he hits that ambitious goal, you probably won't get a shot for months.
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Trump wants to deliver a coronavirus vaccine by January. Even if he hits that ambitious goal, you probably won't get a shot for months.

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Two crossed lines that form an 'X'. It indicates a way to close an interaction, or dismiss a notification.An icon in the shape of a person's head and shoulders. It often indicates a user profile.Redeem nowSign up for our newsletter to get the latest healthcare news and analysis — delivered weekly to your inbox.Something is loading.The Trump administration has laid out an extraordinarily ambitious timeline for a coronavirus vaccine.Operation Warp Speed, the government's initiative to speed up vaccine work, says it's aiming to deliver 300 million doses of a safe and effective shot by January 1. Creating a vaccine in less than a year would be an unprecedented feat — under normal circumstances, it can take a decade to develop a new vaccine and bring it to market.But even if Warp Speed accomplishes this goal, most of us won't be getting coronavirus vaccines in January. When administration officials talk about Warp Speed, they usually don't mention that it will take months to distribute the shots across the nation.The US Department of Health and Human Services, for example, "aims to deliver 300 million doses of a safe, effective vaccine for COVID-19 by January 2021."But Operation Warp Speed won't really deliver those 300 million doses to people until roughly March, administration officials acknowledged.Read more: The confusion is evident in a timeline published on Thursday on the Defense Department's Operation Warp Speed website. (OWS is a collaboration between the Department of Defense and the Department of Health and Human Services.)The document, which Business Insider annotated below, says Warp Speed's mission is to "deliver 300 million doses of safe and effective vaccine by 1 January 2021." But it also shows how it will take 14 months to test, manufacture, and distribute a vaccine — a timeline that would stretch into March.To be clear, distributing hundreds of millions of doses of a coronavirus vaccine by next March would be an unprecedented feat. Achieving that goal depends on a lot going right, including seeing success in clinical studies, ramping up manufacturing, and logistically executing the distribution of the shots across the nation.As it stands, none of the coronavirus vaccine candidates that drugmakers are working on has shown that it can actually prevent infection or disease. Large-scale trials of vaccines from Moderna, Pfizer-BioNTech, and AstraZeneca have begun in recent weeks, with results likely to come later this fall or winter.Stephane Bancel, the CEO of Moderna, recently estimated that in a best-case scenario — in which several of these leading vaccine candidates work — young and healthy people . If any of the leading shots fail in clinical trials, the timeline could be pushed into the second half of next year, Bancel said.Read more: It's important to be realistic about the timeline for a coronavirus vaccine, particularly as the US's public-health response has become increasingly dependent on a vaccine to curb the pandemic. Shortcomings in testing, mask-wearing, and social distancing have laid bare the need for a vaccine, as more than 1,000 people in the US have died each day from the coronavirus in recent weeks.Some top drug-industry CEOs have also emphasized the need for caution on the most aggressive timelines.Roche CEO Severin Schwan before the end of 2021. Novartis CEO Vas Narasimhan that he had "reasonable confidence" that a vaccine could be broadly used by the end of next year.Roche isn't working on a coronavirus vaccine, while Novartis is involved in an early-stage vaccine project. Kenneth Frazier, the CEO of Merck, a drugmaker with a long track record of creating vaccines, has also urged people to be realistic about the timeline."I think when people tell the public that there's going to be a vaccine by the end of 2020, for example, I think they do a grave disservice," Frazier with the Harvard professor Tsedal Neeley. "We don't have a great history of introducing vaccines quickly in the middle of a pandemic. We want to keep that in mind."Merck is working on a coronavirus vaccine of its own but hasn't provided a detailed timeline.Read more: Business Insider asked Trump administration officials in recent days to clarify Warp Speed's goals, because the recent timeline isn't the only instance in which the administration has been unclear. For example:Administration officials confirmed to Business Insider that it would take months after January to accomplish Warp Speed's goals of injecting 300 million vaccine doses.Here's how Dr. Francis Collins, the head of the National Institutes of Health, put it in response to a question about the timeline:"That last three months is distribution of 300 million doses," Collins said. "That is the process of getting a dose to every American, which we didn't expect we could do by the first of January. That's going to take the additional three months to do so."Sign up for notifications from Insider! Stay up to date with what you want to know.Subscribe to push notificationsAn icon in the shape of a lightning bolt.Keep readingIt indicates an expandable section or menu, or sometimes previous / next navigation options.Two crossed lines that form an 'X'. It indicates a way to close an interaction, or dismiss a notification.

Two crossed lines that form an 'X'. It indicates a way to close an interaction, or dismiss a notification.An icon in the shape of a person's head and shoulders. It often indicates a user profile.Redeem nowSign up for our newsletter to get the latest healthcare news and analysis — delivered weekly to your inbox.Something is loading.The Trump administration has laid out an extraordinarily ambitious timeline for a coronavirus vaccine.Operation Warp Speed, the government's initiative to speed up vaccine work, says it's aiming to deliver 300 million doses of a safe and effective shot by January...

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Trump wants to deliver a coronavirus vaccine by January. Even if he hits that ambitious goal, you probably won't get a shot for months.

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