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Is Trump support withering in NY-27, state's most Republican district?

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You are the owner of this article.© 2020 Lee EnterprisesIs Trump support withering in NY-27, state's most Republican district?Share thisRepublicans in the 27th Congressional District are reluctant to even ponder such an unspeakable topic.But following Republican Christopher L. Jacobs' surprisingly close victory in the June 23 special election, the GOP must suddenly ask if President Trump – considered its most valuable asset throughout the recent campaign – has worn out his welcome in New York's reddest congressional district."People are beginning to think he's not the guy they thought he was," said defeated Democratic candidate Nate McMurray. "Otherwise, I would have lost by 30 points."Instead, Jacobs beat the former Grand Island supervisor by a mere 5.3 points last month, despite holding all the financial and party registration advantages. Much of that stemmed from the tsunami of absentee ballots that ultimately flooded boards of elections across the eight-county district, slashing the 42-point lead Jacobs posted on election night.Other dynamics may also be in play. But it all allows McMurray to claim his opponent "limped" into Washington on Tuesday to take his seat in the House of Representatives, especially as polls around the country show tanking support for Trump."The reason I came so close is that people are sick of the president," he said.That's a strong statement in the 27th District, where Republicans outnumber Democrats by more than 40,000 voters. Trump easily carried the district in 2016, and this year, Jacobs thrust the president to the forefront of his campaign. The candidate touted several presidential tweets endorsing his candidacy, a phone call of support from Air Force One and even a "tele-town hall" affair featuring Trump.It all proved especially successful for Jacobs in the simultaneous Republican congressional primary, in which he captured the majority of GOP votes against two strong opponents who also constantly invoked the president. But among the general electorate, which turned out in substantially higher numbers than in a normal special election because of expanded absentee ballot use during the Covid-19 emergency, it was a different story.Republicans now recognize they can take nothing for granted with the Nov. 3 general election creeping up on the calendar."The concern is that Republicans come home," said Niagara County Republican Chairman Richard Andres. "And I think all those other voters will come back."Andres blames the close special election on the confusion that many Republicans encountered by voting in special and primary elections on the same day. That would not have occurred, he said, had the original special election date of April 28 not been postponed because of Covid-19 concerns.He also said the primary that included Darien attorney Beth A. Parlato and Erie County Comptroller Stefan I. Mychajliw Jr. further clouded the situation."He was not necessarily seen by everyone as 'our guy,' " Andres said of Jacobs. "I'm not sure that message was delivered resoundingly."The new congressman declined to be interviewed for this story, referring questions to his campaign consultant, Cam Savage. The strategist insisted that Trump maintains strong support throughout the district, and thinks Democrats simply lack the numbers to overpower Jacobs in November."The problem for them is that they've pretty much maximized their turnout and the Republicans have not," he said, noting that Democrats also turned out on June 23 for their presidential primary. "The Democrats have taken their best shot and lost their opportunity."Livingston County Republican Chairman John Pauer noted that anything can happen in an election in which absentee ballots with a stamped, self-addressed return envelope are made so readily available."I have a strange feeling it's the new normal," he said. "It's a changing world and I'm not sure which way it will go."Should Jacobs continue to base his campaign on supporting Trump?"There's still a huge amount of Trump support, but there are also young people coming along," Pauer said, "and they've been indoctrinated to think of things differently than we do."The Livingston chairman also thinks the key to blunting any November repeat of Democratic strength in the district is to follow one of the basic tenets of politics."We've got to get people out to vote," he said.In a 2019 survey of the district, Amherst pollster Barry Zeplowitz found 81% of the 500 Republicans he questioned supported Trump. That finding seems to have guided much of the Jacobs campaign strategy.“Anybody who is endorsed by the president gets a great big lift,” Zeplowitz said then, before a pandemic, record unemployment and civil unrest became factors of everyday life in 2020.Zeplowitz, who formerly worked as Jacobs' pollster, now says that many other factors, including the high turnout of a presidential election, all work in favor of the Republican."Based on the makeup of that district, and with a full voter turnout in November," he said, "I believe Chris Jacobs will do just fine."Still, another potential roadblock for Jacobs lies in Parlato, who has filed paperwork indicating she will continue as the Conservative candidate despite earlier assurances she would leave the race if defeated in the GOP primary. So far she has refused to answer any questions about her intentions, though some Republicans fear she could split the anti-McMurray vote."It will draw some votes but I think her thunder is over," Pauer said.McMurray, who has never proven shy in blasting Trump, says he will continue. He noted he lost to former Rep. Chris Collins by only about 1,000 votes in 2018 (though Collins was under federal indictment for insider trading and eventually pleaded guilty). Now he predicts that in the general election, Jacobs will "pivot to Mr. Moderate and betray all those who believed he was Mr. Trumper.""I can't wait to get him on a stage," he said of any yet-to-be-scheduled debate.In the meantime, there has been no sign of interest by national Democrats in McMurray's November campaign, especially with contributions or logistical support from the Democratic National Campaign Committee. The committee did not respond to repeated requests for comment."I'm not holding my breath," McMurray said of national support. "I'll rely on my own team."Get local news delivered to your inbox!© Copyright 2020 , One News Plaza Buffalo, NY&nbsp;| &nbsp;|Powered by from .{{title}}{{summary}}You don't have any notifications.Get up-to-the-minute news sent straight to your device.Topics

You are the owner of this article.You have permission to edit this article.© 2022 Lee EnterprisesShare ThisIs Trump support withering in NY-27, state's most Republican district?Share thisRepublicans in the 27th Congressional District are reluctant to even ponder such an unspeakable topic.But following Republican Christopher L. Jacobs' surprisingly close victory in the June 23 special election, the GOP must suddenly ask if President Trump – considered its most valuable asset throughout the recent campaign – has worn out his welcome in New York's reddest congressional district."People are...

Is Trump support withering in NY-27, state's most Republican district?

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