Name: The fair and foul vote
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The fair and foul vote

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AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementAFTER many rumours and much uncertainty about the election, . The dust from Wednesday past has barely settled as the PTI scrambles around to get the numbers for Islamabad and Lahore while the PML-N hems and haws between turning its nose up at an unfair election and trying to form a government in Punjab.But even then, the results throw up some lessons and some thoughts. And they are listed here in no particular order.Before that, however, there is a caveat: with all the allegations of rigging and stolen elections being thrown around, it needs to be said that the fairness or otherwise of an election should not prevent an analysis of it. Regardless of how unfair or flawed an election may seem, the results and numbers it throws up should be studied — because even a rigged election cannot rob an entire people of their right to choose. And that those who win or lose do reflect the will of those who get to make this choice once in every five years. Let’s not rob them of all agency or choice by attributing the entire result to the establishment.Political parties, while kicking up a fuss, continue to fight the fight.First, the turnout didn’t turn out to be as poor as predicted. Everyone and their aunt was convinced that with the targeting of the PML-N, the transformation of the PTI from a party of change to one of electables, the mess facing the MQM and the general despondency surrounding an uneven playing field, people would not turn out.But they did. Perhaps not as much as in 2013 but the turnout was higher than in many other elections. And one way to look at this high turnout is to see it as a product of a tough contest rather than a feel-good factor and a fair election. The tougher a contest, the more efforts candidates will make to get voters out, regardless of how unfair a contest might be. Lahore is a case in point, where the PTI does have a support base and this has pushed it and the PML-N to galvanise its voters in 2013 and this year.Second, pre-poll rigging upsets poll observers more than what happens on election day. The harshest criticism that came the way of elections 2018 was due to what happened in the run-up to D-Day — the corruption drive and the arrest of high-profile politicians and bureaucrats, the judgements, and reports of candidates being harassed (which were made by individual candidates as well as political parties) — and this caused much heartburn among monitoring and rights groups.In pictures:But the political parties, while kicking up a fuss, continue to fight the fight. The PML-N even went to the extent of to request an extension in polling time. But once the results came in, it ‘rejected’ the election (only to take a U-turn later) while other losers are still threatening to stay away from parliament altogether. On the other hand, the election monitors didn’t seem to have as much of a problem with what happened on election day as they did with the pre-poll arrangements.Is this only due to the easier identification of how the pitch is queered compared to election day ‘rigging’ which is hard to distinguish from ‘irregularities’? And why do parties find it easier to deal with pre-poll rigging? Because they still believe (or hope) that they can swing a seat despite unfavourable circumstances? Do they think that what happens on polling day is far more serious and decisive than what comes before? And if so, why do the ?Third (and this will cause much heartburn to those who are convinced that the election was stolen), it seems as if regular elections — however flawed — don’t allow for major surprises. This election was no different.Everyone expected the PPP to dominate Sindh, the PTI to return to power in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and the PTI and the PML-N to battle it out in Punjab. And this is more or less what happened. Agreed that the PPP and the PTI got a higher number of seats in Sindh and KP than expected and the battle in Punjab turned out to be a lot closer than expected but there was no major ‘upset’ in terms of the trends predicted. On the other hand, Karachi on its own threw up a huge surprise.Was it due to engineering or partly due to the fact that the city had not witnessed a relatively clean fight for some time? And now that people were given the right to exercise their choice, their decision just caught many of us by surprise?Last, voters do not cast their votes on the basis of a single issue such as the civil-military gap — not even in Punjab. Hence, a number of ‘anti-establishment’ figures have won as have many turncoats seen to be ‘pro’. Khawaja Asif and Ahsan Iqbal who have been known to be critical of the interference of the military have been returned to the assembly, as has Mehnaz Aziz, who contested the Narowal seat once her husband, Daniyal Aziz, was disqualified. Omar Ayub Khan or Khusro Bakhtiyar clinched their seats despite having joined the PTI recently. As did Tahir Sadik in the north of Punjab and Sher Waseer in Faisalabad.Similarly, the defeat of Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan (who till the run-up to the election was seen as another laadla), has thrown up interesting numbers. The chaudhry may have lost the contest but he was the runner-up with over 60,000 votes; his imprisoned PML-N rival whose children ran the election campaign polled around 20,000. The voter was not convinced of voting for the victimised party or its victimised candidate here. Both of them lost to a virtual outsider in this constituency, who himself switched over to the PTI from PML-Q in 2013.Indeed, elections are messy and complicated affairs, especially where constituency politics are dominated by local issues and power politics. All of this contributes to the result. By giving the (dis)credit to one player, we rob the people and politicians of their say.The writer is a journalist.Published in Dawn, July 31st, 2018AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementComments (22) ClosedExcellent analysisIn Pakistan whoever loses cries foul.There are many more surprises:1. Fazlur Rehman, Achakzai Bros, Asfandyaar Wali and Sirajul Haq failed to win in their strongholds and in fact added the tally of Unemployment in the country.2. PTI winning more seats in Baluchistan than PML-N and now could become coalition partners in Baluchistan Govt. setup3. BNP winning seats in South-Punjab.That money and other perks were offered by the candidates to the voters and willingly accepted goes without saying. Those who have been in power earlier know the booty it generates when the elections are over. They only have to part with their money temporarily as when they are elected, the spent amount returns with colossal profits.The best analysis I have seen so far!There is fashion in Pakistan, if any one harmed, defeated in elections, caught in corruption and if he doesn't understand what's happening to him, hE tries to clean all his sins by saying that establishment is doing it with me.t is done by the corrupt as they do not want any change of the system that works for them....The voter was not convinced of voting for the victimised party or its victimised candidate here, and judging from the vocal response Nawaz Sharif received from his other jail inmates he is not loved.An ambiance of unfairness may be perceived by many people in the political community in favor of PTI and against PML-N, however, by and large, the elections were fair. I have seen even young children hyped up about Imran Khan and the concept of change in the administration. We cannot find perfect people in politics and I do not believe that Imran Khan will be able to end corruption within 90 days as he once proclaimed. Nevertheless, I admire his goals to end the corruptions and build the institutions.What a nothing analysis. Basically the writer has succeeded is taking no position at all.Brilliant.Superb analysisThe farce that goes by the name of democracy in Pakistan has received another shot in the form of elections. Let us rejoice and give way to the new set-up to rule with the help of a few old crooks and enjoy themselves for a while.Very right!The main purpose of rigging was to get Imran in and Nawaz out, all other results were details that are unimportant. Blatant rigging as happened this time around does not have to be 100%.The article makes lots of sense. Well written.A simplistic analysis. No doubt the public voted for change but all pre-election and almost all exit polls showed, in fact, that there would be a much closer contest with PTI getting around 70-75 seats at national level and PMLN around 65-70 with the PPP and MMA both obtaining at least 50 seats each. It is actually insulting the public's intelligence to believe the result that was ultimately engineered by some quarters.Good analysis. If elections were not rigged and Nawaz and others were allowed to canvass and fight freely then PLMN would have got around 100-110 seats with PTI with around 70 seats. But this was not allowed and many PLMN candidates were pushed to change loyalty.Interesting elections. Next 5 years will also be interesting to watch.Perhaps Imran Khan is popular, but by the apparent targeting of certain political parties and individuals prior to the elections, the finger points again to these military / Agencies.In Pakistan, the power comes through the barrel of the gun.But they have already been robbed.American, British and Australian news agencies and even the American government have pointed fingers to atleast pre poll engineering.No doubt PTI get votes, but there is also no doubt that PMLN get votes as well.The question is why the process complication made this dubious.What was the intention.There could be another opinion: perhaps some one wanted to stop PTI clear majority, this is also a contempt to peoples mandate.AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement010203040506070809The issue with the PTA’s vision of the internet in Pakistan is that it only views it from a security and business lens, completely ignoring citizens' basic rights.AdvertisementThe world’s most consequential relationship between the US and China needs to be managed responsibly.There are many precedents for the ‘minus-one formula’ and ‘technical knockout’ in Pakistan’s political history.SOCIAL hyperpolarisation, gradually becoming apparent not just in developing democracies but also in the more ...AFTER over six years since the project was launched, Karachi got its second multicoloured bus rapid transit line to...The world’s initial response to the tragedy has so far been underwhelming at best.THE families of missing people are caught in a nightmare that appears to have no end. 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AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementAFTER many rumours and much uncertainty about the election, . The dust from Wednesday past has barely settled as the PTI scrambles around to get the numbers for Islamabad and Lahore while the PML-N hems and haws between turning its nose up at an unfair election and trying to form a government in Punjab.But even then, the results throw up some lessons and some thoughts. And they are listed here in no particular order.Before that, however, there is a caveat: with all the allegations of rigging and stolen elections being thrown around, it...

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The fair and foul vote

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