Name: New Bay Area housing goals in question
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New Bay Area housing goals in question

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Offer expires September 15, 2022, so sign up today!You have permission to edit this article.Welcome,While regional officials claim the Bay Area should double its housing production over the coming decade, some question the area’s ability to reach such lofty goals amid a pandemic.The Association of Bay Area Governments announced last month the region comprised of Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano and Sonoma counties should build 441,000 housing units by 2031.But with COVID-19 suddenly upending everything from work and transportation habits to the financial backbone of the housing industry, some Peninsula officials are wondering whether it’s wise to re-examine the residential development targets.“Maybe it is time to for everyone to just take our collective breath, pause and then kind of reassess where we all are at on this,” said San Mateo County Supervisor David Canepa, who serves as a representative to the organization known as ABAG.Every eight years, the California Department of Housing and Community Development determines how many housing units should be built and works with regional bodies like ABAG to determine how many units are needed in each county and city.ABAG develops a methodology for distributing to local governments a share of the total number of housing units needed across all income levels, also known as the Regional Housing Needs Allocation, or RHNA.The most recent RHNA process has not advanced far enough for each city and county to know specifically how many units they will be expected to build, but early projections call for the region to develop twice as many units as was called for in the last cycle.The process is leading to a draft methodology which should be completed in fall, with an expectation that an initial allocation should be announced in the spring of 2021.And while local officials generally agreed the ramped-up production is necessary to make housing in San Mateo County more affordable and accessible, uncertainty lingers over the region’s capability to meet the mark set before the coronavirus outbreak.“I just don’t know how we are going to hit the 440,000,” said Canepa, who has heartily advocated in favor of loosening development regulations to incentivize housing production in recent years.Furthermore, he questioned whether so many units would be necessary as an increasing amount of large employers are allowing remote work arrangements with hopes of stemming coronavirus transmission.The trend has given way to reports of many leaving the Bay Area in search of more affordable destinations. He also noted many have lost their jobs amid the pandemic, further weakening the local economy which previously drove the pricey housing market.South San Francisco Mayor Rich Garbarino, also a regional representative to ABAG, shared a similarly skeptical view on the economics of the virus.“If people aren’t working, how can they afford to buy housing? How are they going to pay rents? It’s just going to have an impact,” said Garbarino, alluding to the financial implications likely brought to the housing industry by coronavirus.To that end, experts have speculated that the slowed economy may yield difficulties for some developers seeking funding with expectations that banks may be reticent to lend money.These anxieties are heightened by local officials establishing rent moratoriums and other restrictions on the flow of money into the real estate sector, setting off a chain reaction of debt and risk sensitivities.Garbarino said he already had reservations regarding the area’s ability to reach the production goal before the pandemic and those concerns have only grown as the virus has spread.“The numbers are skewed as far as I’m concerned. … Nobody knows how long this pandemic is going to last and I’m not optimistic it is going to end any time soon,” he said.Millbrae Councilman Wayne Lee, also a regional ABAG representative, said he believed collaboration between sectors will be essential to achieve the goals set out in the regional housing plan.“If we don’t find a way to engage the entire public — meaning companies as well as governments — we’re going to be in the same place,” he said, acknowledging the housing production shortfall which has plagued the region and state over recent years.For his part, Lee said he is particularly interested in catalyzing affordable housing construction and would like to see more below-market-rate units developed for essential workers and those forming the foundation of the Peninsula’s economy.But he balanced that opinion against the recognition that COVID-19 will likely lead to a variety of changes in the housing sector which are difficult to imagine.“We don’t really know how it will all play out,” he said.Canepa agreed the future is uncertain, but said that should not dissuade officials from remaining committed to building housing and addressing the affordability crisis facing millions of Californians.As part of that effort though, he said it is important to assure officials are working toward reaching goals that are attainable and realistic in uncertain times.“You want to make sure if you have a goal, that it is within reach,” he said.(650) 344-5200 ext. 105Editor,×××This is ridiculous. Canepa knows SMC has under produced housing since the 1980's. Pause not before cities fulfill their RHNA obligations from LAST cycle.Housing is responsive to the forces of supply and demand. If, in fact, demand is on a permanently lower trajectory, then that's going to make housing more affordable by itself, and any investors that pushed money into "luxury" housing are going to lose their shirts. We could look at making our state and local laws favor having non-profits take over any housing that comes on the market that way, so that they can then find ways to use it productively.In any case, it seems implausible that this crisis is going to last so long and drop demand so far that the median rent or purchase price will come back to being affordable to the median worker. If you look at the ratio between the median income and median home price, the number of years of income you have to spend on a home has gone up drastically in the past twenty years. Factor in rent -- so look at the ratio of (median monthly income - median monthly rent) to the median downpayment -- and it's even worse. People have to work maybe 8x as many months to save up that downpayment, or they have to go into much riskier, higher-interest loans with reduced down-payments and other features that will blow up if they have a stroke of bad luck (or get swamped by a recession).That 400k goal is far too _low_. We really need more like 800k-1M units in the next decade, if we want to actually erase our housing deficit instead of just treading water with the awful market we have now. And with interest rates at rock bottom right now, it'd be a perfect time to be taking out the thirty-year loans to finance investment in housing and other infrastructure, to get people back to work and create the assets that will serve us for the next couple generations -- similar to the New Deal.We live in one of the most unaffordable areas in the country. Using a pandemic as an excuse to stall on housing production, while homelessness continues to increase and real estate prices continue to inch up, is not a good look for our region. These housing goals don't even kick in until 2023, so using the pandemic as an excuse seems disingenuous at best. Instead of fighting the inevitable, let's instead use this opportunity to thoughtfully plan where we can build the new housing by envisioning more dense, walkable communities that can house the workers for all of the giant office projects that we've allowed in the past two decades, without matching housing.Two entities that should be ignored and rejected are ABAG and the District 5 Supervisor of SM county Canepa.Keep it Clean. Please avoid obscene, vulgar, lewd,racist or sexually-oriented language.PLEASE TURN OFF YOUR CAPS LOCK.Don't Threaten. Threats of harming anotherperson will not be tolerated.Be Truthful. Don't knowingly lie about anyoneor anything.Be Nice. 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New Bay Area housing goals in question

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